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Old 03-31-2020, 07:01 AM   #41
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Not just singing but playing wind instruments. Recently went to a concert and with the stage lighting at times you could see the mist coming out of the flutes, etc. Not sure how far it was projected but today I definitely wouldn't want to be in the same room with someone playing a wind instrument that could be infected. I tend to assume that everyone else is infected.
BTW when my son was in high school band and remember him playing a French horn and marching mellophone there is a "spit valve" at the bottom to drain the spit while playing. Stay safe everyone.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:01 AM   #42
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This COVID beast is one sneaky bastard.

Thanks for the article pointer, gwraighty. Another snippet:
YW Joe. It makes me wonder now if I did have it in Jan. - as I posted in the appropriate thread - because it now seems more possible that DH, DD, and DS could have been asymptomatic, or nearly so. I read that the wife of Prince Charles tested negative, so that's another data point to ponder.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:49 AM   #43
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YW Joe. It makes me wonder now if I did have it in Jan. - as I posted in the appropriate thread - because it now seems more possible that DH, DD, and DS could have been asymptomatic, or nearly so. I read that the wife of Prince Charles tested negative, so that's another data point to ponder.
Possible Camila lives in a different wing of the castle. From all my "Windsor" watch, they practice social distancing on a regular basis.


gwraighty, it would be valuable if you could donate your blood for antibody research. Seems we've developed a relatively easy blood donation protocol in this country. Why not start examining the blood of those recovered who have tested positive?
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:57 AM   #44
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First of all, thanks for the article pointer. I thought it was just another pointer to the earlier article. This one has much more information. The article just brushes on the airborne idea. There's little chance that everyone touched a contaminated surface. At least some had to have breathed in some droplets.

Clearly, singing can forcefully expel aerosols. I'll mention again that researchers have been looking at the role speech has in expelling aerosols. Here's a technical paper for the details.

In short, loud talkers expel more. This is why I think restaurants are a big environment for transmission. Most are so damn loud now we have people yelling at each other, spitting in their faces and on their meals. (Although it is unseen and unfelt.)

Assume EVERYONE can be a carrier.
Yet another reason never to trust loud talkers.
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Old 03-31-2020, 10:17 AM   #45
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gwraighty, it would be valuable if you could donate your blood for antibody research. Seems we've developed a relatively easy blood donation protocol in this country. Why not start examining the blood of those recovered who have tested positive?
I think it's something they're working on, but it's not possible yet. From the little I've read, I believe it may be limited to people who need to get back out into the workforce. Officials are concerned about how to reopen businesses without causing a huge second wave. Someone like me, who isn't in the workforce, and didn't qualify to be tested to confirm, would not be a priority. They're going to have enough people who were confirmed positive that they can use for antibody research. I'd be willing to be tested for antibodies if they're short on people who are willing to be tested though.
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Old 03-31-2020, 11:36 AM   #46
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This is an informative article interviewing the head of the CDC. He estimates that up to 25% of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic, which is consistent with what we are hearing from other countries. He also talks about the possibility of having everyone wear masks when we start to open up the economy again, as well as the likelihood of a second wave coming later this year.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...-to-be-with-us
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Old 03-31-2020, 11:52 AM   #47
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^^^^ Worth a quick listen and read.

Finally some sanity on the mask issue. The lying (or shall we say, carefully worded statements) are finally stopping.
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Old 03-31-2020, 11:59 AM   #48
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I think the point that the CDC was making early on is that wearing a mask will not protect you from the virus, it will protect others from you.

But if everyone is wearing a mask, then we don’t have to worry about it because now the mask is protecting everybody from everybody. So it eliminates the spread caused by asymptomatic carriers who are out in public infecting others.
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:02 PM   #49
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I think the point that the CDC was making early on is that wearing a mask will not protect you from the virus, it will protect others from you.
Oh, it is nuanced. The CDC has said: "does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases".

They don't recommend. The CDC, AFAIK, hasn't ever said "masks won't protect you." It is very careful wording. And they follow it up with the very logical reasoning that health professionals need them first.

The Surgeon General, however, did go off on a tweet and say they are "NOT effective". Personally, I wouldn't hire him as my physician.

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But if everyone is wearing a mask, then we donít have to worry about it because now the mask is protecting everybody from everybody. So it eliminates the spread caused by asymptomatic carriers who are out in public infecting others.
Very true. And Singapore is crazy serious about this idea.

I get it. There's a shortage. We need to have our priorities. It is too bad they resorted to clever messaging instead of: "Do your damn part and give your masks to the health professionals. You'll get your turn later."
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Old 03-31-2020, 02:33 PM   #50
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Here's an interesting article that puts some science on that, including the cultural differences of loudness of speech. I'm thinking of Italy and their demonstrative speaking:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z

So, speak softly, if at all, and carry a long stick!
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:17 PM   #51
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Itís hard to recommend everyone wear a mask when no one has masks and hospitals are running out, and if wear one you are shamed for wearing it instead of giving it to a hospital. All these recommendations, and no materials to make them possible. Itís distressing.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:01 PM   #52
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It’s hard to recommend everyone wear a mask when no one has masks and hospitals are running out, and if wear one you are shamed for wearing it instead of giving it to a hospital. All these recommendations, and no materials to make them possible. It’s distressing.

The South Korean doctor in the interview video that Nemo2 posted elsewhere said that he believed that masks helped. However, he also understood that the US had a shortage of masks. It's so sad how a rich country can get itself back against a wall for something so inexpensive. I don't know on whom we can blame this complacency. We are collectively at fault.
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:07 PM   #53
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The South Korean doctor in the interview video that Nemo2 posted elsewhere said that he believed that masks helped. However, he also understood that the US had a shortage of masks. It's so sad how a rich country can get itself back against a wall for something so inexpensive. I don't know on whom we can blame this complacency. We are collectively at fault.
It really isn't so hard to understand, IMO.

If you run a business, would you keep a ton of excess inventory on hand, "just in case" something happens that hasn't happened in 100 years? If you even thought about it, you might think that it was the business of those who bought your product to keep any anticipated inventory on hand. You just make it, you don't control the world, you aren't "king". And there are costs associated with inventory. If you keep inventory for a 1 in 100 year emergency, it makes it hard to compete with those who don't. You can't help anybody if you have to close your business.

So let's make a parallel to Sept 11, 2001, another "Black Swan" event. I vividly recall some radio/TV personalities being all "WTF!" over the fact that cell phone towers in NY shut down after a few hours. These radio/TV people said "The batteries went dead! WTF didn't they have more batteries on hand?". Like you could just go to Radio Shack and get a few dozen AA's and it would all be Hunky-Dorey.

Well, cell phone towers need huge amounts of power. They transmit high power so that your phone doesn't need to. They have directional antennas, and many of them, covering each direction. Your phone needs to be omni-directional. Bottom line, it would take a huge amount of batteries to provide days/weeks of back up in cell towers. And an emergency could strike anywhere. So we aren't just talking NY, every cell tower in the country would need this mass array of batteries. And those batteries would have to be replaced after 10 years or so. And most likely, they would never, ever have been used in their 10 year life. So the cell companies would need to be replacing humongous numbers of batteries each year, just to keep up, "just in case". It would be bad for the environment, it would be bad for business.

Sorry, but I think it's just too easy to say "why weren't we prepared?". Why should we be prepared (to this extent)? Who is going to pay for something that can't be foreseen? It's one thing to be prepared for hurricane season, or winter. But a pandemic of historic preportions? How far can we go?

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Old 03-31-2020, 08:22 PM   #54
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It really isn't so hard to understand, IMO...
No, it's not hard to understand. It's very simple. It is still sad that our medical workers are hamstrung for something so basic.

Of course nobody can stock up for everything. And knowing that our medical supplies are limited, and lack of good care can drive up the mortality rate, it's more the reason to do what we can to avoid overloading our hospital even more than it is already.
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:41 AM   #55
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Yesterday I was reading some journal articles from 2009 around the time of the H1N1 outbreak. I've actually learned something new about how we expire droplets. Yes we eject droplets when coughing and sneezing but we also do it simply by talking. The louder you talk the more droplets you emit. Laughing (social situations), singing (churches?), shouting (indoor sporting events) all lead to droplets being spread in the near vicinity. Yes there is a larger volume in a good sneeze but being in a crowded closed environment for several hours generates an equal contamination load. Most of the droplets in a sneeze or cough are large enough to drop to the ground in a few minutes. The smaller droplets evaporate and linger for hours. Clearly there are examples of aerosol infection in the cruise ships, taxis, a Thai boxing stadium, church services, and Mardi Gras. That is how asymptomatic people spread aerosol droplets

Contact contamination is also possible Asymptomatic people will touch their face, touch a surface, and then you touch your face. I read an article examining infection pathways between a patient and a nurse in a closed room. They estimated 50-75% of the virus transfer was through contact contamination. However, interestingly, they mentioned that they didn't know the effectiveness of infection through virus infiltration through something like eye fluid. They said that breaking a small number of virus particles deep into your lungs would be a more efficient means of infection.
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Old 04-01-2020, 05:26 AM   #56
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Yes we eject droplets when coughing and sneezing but we also do it simply by talking. The louder you talk the more droplets you emit.
Yep! And for those who want details, here is a pointer to very detailed research on how talking, especially loud talking, emits virus laden aerosols.

Think about this the next time to sit down to dinner at a loud restaurant. (Probably 3 years from now, LOL.) We are constantly expelling stuff as we enjoy each other's company. Many droplets fall onto the table. The silverware. The food. Some fall onto the other people at the dinner, maybe right onto their face.

Oh, it is so lovely out there for a virus.
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Old 04-01-2020, 05:56 AM   #57
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My 73 yo brother tested positive for CV. His only symptoms were a one day temperature of 103, slight sore throat, slight cough and slight chest pain all relieved with one dose of tylenol. He only got tested because he was getting ready to have surgery for another matter and they were concerned about the 1 day fever. He was only sick one day. That was 2 weeks ago. His wife has had no symptoms even though they have been sleeping together, riding in car together, going everywhere together, so you can assume she might be an asymptomatic carrier?

The only places he had been to catch it was a doctors appointment and the grocery store.
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:05 AM   #58
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Becca: WOW! Glad your brother and SIL are doing good through this. Also encouraging to hear everyone over 50 isn't doomed, as the news wants us to believe.
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:53 AM   #59
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That's the most encouraging news I've heard in a while. Thanks for posting that.
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Old 04-01-2020, 12:08 PM   #60
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Several studies show confirm a significant portion of asymptomatic case which I posted in another thread:

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con....25.10.2000180

Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...815v1.full.pdf

Clinical Characteristics of 24 Asymptomatic Infections with COVID-19 Screened among Close Contacts in Nanjing, China
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....20.20025619v2

The youtube video in question about Dr. Kim Woo Ju is located here and can explain some of the reasons why there is asymptomatic spread and why masks are key to reducing its transmission

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