Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections - How rare?

[MuirWannabe]

It only suggests such to the tinfoil hat club....

Most folks dismissed people who early on theorized the virus came from a lab rather than a wet market. Labeled them conspiracy nuts just for having questions about it. Including some on this board. Now, it seems likely to be true according to our government.
So, while I look with skepticism on many of these claims, I’m slow to label them conspiracy nuts. It seems many questions need still to be asked and answered. And we no longer have a media that pursues investigative journalism. So, I’ll wait and see.

 

[LRDave]

Most folks dismissed people who early on theorized the virus came from a lab rather than a wet market. Labeled them conspiracy nuts just for having questions about it. Including some on this board. Now, it seems likely to be true according to our government.
So, while I look with skepticism on many of these claims, I’m slow to label them conspiracy nuts. It seems many questions need still to be asked and answered. And we no longer have a media that pursues investigative journalism. So, I’ll wait and see.

What credible source even suggests this claim?

 

[Helen]

It only suggests such to the tinfoil hat club....

I don't think it takes a tinfoil hat to believe China wasn't forthcoming or honest about this virus in regards to when, where and how.

 

[Gumby]

Most folks dismissed people who early on theorized the virus came from a lab rather than a wet market. Labeled them conspiracy nuts just for having questions about it. Including some on this board. Now, it seems likely to be true according to our government.
So, while I look with skepticism on many of these claims, I’m slow to label them conspiracy nuts. It seems many questions need still to be asked and answered. And we no longer have a media that pursues investigative journalism. So, I’ll wait and see.

News article from BBC yesterday says no evidence. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52318539 President Trump said only that US is investigating. No source says it's "likely to be true"

 

[LRDave]

And we no longer have a media that pursues investigative journalism. So, I’ll wait and see.

We aren't talking about "investigative journalism'. We're talking about genome sequencing. All the genome sequencing from the many countries all around the world point back to zootic transmission in Wuhan in December. We can trace the transmission of the virus (via its mutations) back to patient 1.

 

[ivinsfan]

We aren't talking about "investigative journalism'. We're talking about genome sequencing. All the genome sequencing from the many countries all around the world point back to zootic transmission in Wuhan in December. We can trace the transmission of the virus (via its mutations) back to patient 1.

Who is patient one, that's the question isn't it...

 

[Chuckanut]

IIRC, a majority of the sailors on the Roosevelt who tested positive for CV19 were asymptomatic. Since they are probably younger and more fit than the general population that may not be a huge surprise. But, nearly 60%!

“What we’ve found of the 600 or so that have been infected, what’s disconcerting is a majority of those, 350 plus, are asymptomatic,” Esper said in an interview with the “Today Show” on Thursday. “So it has revealed a new dynamic of this virus that it can be carried by normal, healthy people who have no idea whatsoever that they are carrying it.”

I hope that means we have a lot more people with immunity than we think. I'll take any break we can get.

 

[Rianne]

The South Korean video above states they now know the virus is contagious before symptoms show and after testing negative (after you've had the virus) you're not out of the woods. The virus can still be in the body and re emerge. I understand, you're not re infected, it's still in your body and symptoms come back and the virus grows again, so to speak.


Also, you cannot ramp up your immune system to fight this virus with vitamins or supplements.

 

[cathy63]

There is a difference between "the virus was bioengineered in a lab and then released deliberately or accidentally" and "a lab tech using poor safety protocols was infected while studying viruses that had been collected from wild bats". The former idea has been dismissed by scientists who have studied the virus' genome. The latter has not been ruled out or confirmed. There's also the possibility that it came to humans from bats via civets, either through the wet market or other contacts. We'll probably never know for sure.

 

[MuirWannabe]

News article from BBC yesterday says no evidence. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52318539 President Trump said only that US is investigating. No source says it's "likely to be true"

Here’s one of many on Fox. CNN had an article about it last night although I couldn’t find it just now.

Clearly you disagree. I’m not so certain. I view all these things related to Covid with a skeptical eye. So, I’ll wear the tin foil hat y’all want to put on me for now.

But I’m not angry. I understand your viewpoints. More than anything I want to get along and be kind. It’s a tense world out there right now. About everything.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/u-s-canada-have-funded-chinese-lab

 

[audreyh1]

And it also might suggest that the virus has been here a hell of a lot earlier that January 20th, 2020.

Well, scientists are pretty sure it was already spreading in Silicon Valley before Jan 20.

It only suggests such to the tinfoil hat club....

I don’t think so.

 

[Gumby]

Here’s one of many on Fox. CNN had an article about it last night although I couldn’t find it just now.

Clearly you disagree. I’m not so certain. I view all these things related to Covid with a skeptical eye. So, I’ll wear the tin foil hat y’all want to put on me for now.

But I’m not angry. I understand your viewpoints. More than anything I want to get along and be kind. It’s a tense world out there right now. About everything.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/u-s-canada-have-funded-chinese-lab

I read the article you cited. I still don't see anything in there from an identified government spokesman that the US government believes it "is likely to be true" that the virus came from a lab in Wuhan. In fact, discussing the unidentified sources, the article said as follows

"Sources emphasized -- as is often the case with intelligence -- that it’s not definitive and should not be characterized as such. Some inside the administration and the intelligence and epidemiological communities are more skeptical, and the investigation is continuing.

The only place the word "likely" is used is in the headline.

As far as I can tell, the logic chain is as follows: The flu was first reported in Wuhan in late 2019. There is a bio-lab near Wuhan. The bio-lab studied bat viruses. In 2018, some criticized the lab for the lack of properly trained technicians. The Chinese government lies. Therefore, the coronavius came from the lab.

That is not much different than me observing that there is a plane flying over my house. Bradley Airport is about 50 miles from my house. Planes fly out of Bradley. Sometimes they fly over my house. Therefore the plane came from Bradley. Maybe it did, but since there are numerous other airports in the vicinity, some even closer than Bradley, it is equally likely that it could have come from one of them.

Maybe the virus did originate in the bio-lab, but based on the evidence presented so far, I don't think anyone could conclude that or even say it is "likely". If actual evidence of causation is unearthed, then I would change my position. But right now it is inference by people who have a strong incentive to do anything to deflect from how pathetic our national response to this has been.

And, even if the the virus came from that lab near Wuhan, how does that confirm that it was in the US prior to January 20, 2020? More importantly, how does that help us address the issue of asymptomatic cases in the context of recovering our economy?

 

[MuirWannabe]

I read the article you cited. I still don't see anything in there from an identified government spokesman that the US government believes it "is likely to be true" that the virus came from a lab in Wuhan. In fact, discussing the unidentified sources, the article said as follows

The only place the word "likely" is used is in the headline.



As far as I can tell, the logic chain is as follows: The flu was first reported in Wuhan in late 2019. There is a bio-lab near Wuhan. The bio-lab studied bat viruses. In 2018, some criticized the lab for the lack of properly trained technicians. The Chinese government lies. Therefore, the coronavius came from the lab.



That is not much different than me observing that there is a plane flying over my house. Bradley Airport is about 50 miles from my house. Planes fly out of Bradley. Sometimes they fly over my house. Therefore the plane came from Bradley. Maybe it did, but since there are numerous other airports in the vicinity, some even closer than Bradley, it is equally likely that it could have come from one of them.



Maybe the virus did originate in the bio-lab, but based on the evidence presented so far, I don't think anyone could conclude that or even say it is "likely". If actual evidence of causation is unearthed, then I would change my position. But right now it is inference by people who have a strong incentive to do anything to deflect from how pathetic our national response to this has been.



And, even if the the virus came from that lab near Wuhan, how does that confirm that it was in the US prior to January 20, 2020? More importantly, how does that help us address the issue of asymptomatic cases in the context of recovering our economy?

So, I’ll agree with your critiques of the article. Likely doesn’t mean guaranteed. But can we at least acknowledge that things are unknown and things haven’t been ruled out? So, if someone has concerns or theories the virus came from a lab instead of a wet market, and China is obfuscating the truth, they aren’t necessarily wearing a tin hat or blaming it on aliens?

 

[MuirWannabe]

And as to your last paragraph Gumby. I wasn’t claiming it did. Just that our understanding is evolving and dismissing questions people have by throwing them in the tin foil hat club seems to me to be unwarranted.

 

[Gumby]

So, I’ll agree with your critiques of the article. Likely doesn’t mean guaranteed. But can we at least acknowledge that things are unknown and things haven’t been ruled out? So, if someone has concerns or theories the virus came from a lab instead of a wet market, and China is obfuscating the truth, they aren’t necessarily wearing a tin hat or blaming it on aliens?

Yes, we can agree that at this point much remains unknown. In those circumstances, I prefer to apply Occam's Razor - the explanation requiring the least number of assumptions is usually the correct one.

I made that post originally just because it is a funny meme that seemed to fit in after the prior post. It comes with a funny picture, but I couldn't make the picture stick in the post.

 

[tmm99]

This video has been helpful to me to understand asymptomatic carriers, viral and also what the world will look forward to as how we recover from the pandemic.

His first video was also helpful too

A very good and credible video. Thank you for posting this. I wish more experts talked clearly and extensively like this guy.

 

[Turbo29]

Well, scientists are pretty sure it was already spreading in Silicon Valley before Jan 20.

Along those lines:


COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California


These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10...._m3bvC4lq8HBVJdff9A108UxmWzlBmr8i2qWOk1BMVDKE

 

[audreyh1]

So, I’ll agree with your critiques of the article. Likely doesn’t mean guaranteed. But can we at least acknowledge that things are unknown and things haven’t been ruled out? So, if someone has concerns or theories the virus came from a lab instead of a wet market, and China is obfuscating the truth, they aren’t necessarily wearing a tin hat or blaming it on aliens?

Given at least one incident in the past of a scientist from that lab selling his used study animals to a nearby wild meat market, I don’t entirely rule out escape from a virology lab. That doesn’t mean it was bioengineered.

 

[audreyh1]

Along those lines:


COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California


These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10...._m3bvC4lq8HBVJdff9A108UxmWzlBmr8i2qWOk1BMVDKE

This articles includes reference to CDC officials who suspect that the virus may have started spreading in CA as early as December 2019.

 

[Gumby]

Along those lines:


COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California


These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10...._m3bvC4lq8HBVJdff9A108UxmWzlBmr8i2qWOk1BMVDKE

65,536 is 16 doublings. If the doubling time for the disease is 4 days, this would imply the first case was approximately January 26. If doubling time is 5 days, then it would imply the first case on about January 10. According to the news, the first reported case in Santa Clara County was on January 31. So it is not out of the ballpark

 

[MuirWannabe]

Given at least one incident in the past of a scientist from that lab selling his used study animals to a nearby wild meat market, I don’t entirely rule out escape from a virology lab. That doesn’t mean it was bioengineered.

Totally agree. Came from a lab doesn’t mean bioweapon. It means escaped from a lab. Likely. Possibly.