California guidelines

[Scuba]

Our governor just announced six criteria that will be applied to determine when shelter at home guidelines can be made less strict. I find these criteria seriously depressing. It feels like we will never meet these criteria. I’m not saying I think we’re ready to relax the current policy now, but I had hoped for more measurable, specific, achievable criteria.

Any other Californians feel some hope from this that I’m not feeling? If so, please share!

 

[Ready]

Here is a summary from CNN:

The governor said he doesn't envision any mass gatherings at sporting events or concerts until there is a vaccine and sufficient herd immunity.
The six things that need to happen before a stay-at-home order is lifted involve the state's ability to: expand testing and track the infected, protect vulnerable people, meet the needs of medical caregivers during the most trying times, to have drugs for treatment, to have businesses and schools comply with social distancing, and to be able to reinstate a stay-at-home order, if need be.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/us/us-coronavirus-reopening-tuesday/index.html

“To have drugs for treatment” is the hardest one to figure out. Who knows when that might happen. I’m not sure I understand what he was saying there.

The rest of them seem manageable to me. I know it looks daunting but I’m grateful that in spite of California’s size that we haven’t had the kind of hot spots that NY/NJ/MI have had. I think the Governor made a tough call to shut things down early on and that likely saved a lot of lives. So I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he is doing.

I don’t think any of the states really have a firm idea of when they can reopen. So much of this discussion is still hypothetical until we see the rate of infections drop significantly.

 

[cathy63]

These are the indicators he gave:

* The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
* The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
* The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
* The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
* The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
* The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.

I agree that they're not yet specific criteria, but we don't really need those yet. It seems like we hit the peak for new cases on the 7th, so we've got at least another couple of weeks until we hit the peak for deaths. As long as we have measurable criteria by the time the death rate starts declining, I think we'll be o.k.

I do feel hopeful knowing that we have people who are thinking a couple of weeks ahead and we're not just going to wing it. I also feel good about his statement that "we must be guided by science and data" in making these decisions.

If, two weeks from now, we still just have vague bullet points and no well defined triggers for taking the next steps, then I will feel differently.

 

[skipro33]

If the government is too restrictive, the population will eventually ignore their mandates and rules. At least until the next election when they are voted out and more reasonable politicians are able to be elected to office.

 

[USGrant1962]

If the government is too restrictive, the population will eventually ignore their mandates and rules. At least until the next election when they are voted out and more reasonable politicians are able to be elected to office.

+1

Conservatively, less than 1% of the population has been infected so far and almost all of them survived (less than 0.2% have been infected if you just use recorded cases). We are heading for 25%+ unemployment. The economic pressure cooker is going to blow.

And no I am not saying open the economy like the flick of a light switch. But calibrated actions need to happen fast. Shutting down Montana and South Dakota like NYC (the highest population density in the country by far - twice the density of #2 San Francisco I heard today) is insane.

 

[RobbieB]

Yeah, intentionally vague, typical politician.

 

[stepford]

I actually find Newsom's guidelines reassuring. They seem to me to be well-considered and science based rather than allowing political pressure to force an unduly quick re-opening.

 

[Keim]

Ifound them vague. No statedcriteria makes it more of a statement of intent than anything else. I do like the assurance opening would be science based.

I think their main purpose is serving as a political notice to DC that the state will decide opening-not the fed.

 

[Scuba]

#1 and #5 seem very daunting to me. California has 40 million people and to date, approximately 213K tests have occurred according to worldometers. I wonder what resources it would take to have the ability to test and do thorough contact tracing on anyone who is symptomatic? And since scientific studies have indicated transmission from asymptomatic people is fairly common, do we need to test more than just symptomatic people? If so this becomes even more challenging.

As for #5, let’s think about businesses, schools and child care facilities being able to practice physical distancing. Restaurants operate at 50% or less capacity because tables have to be further apart? Can’t see how they’d be able to make any money doing this. How will gyms be able to operate? And will kids not be allowed to play together at day care? Other than office work which is fairly easily adapted to remote work, it’s hard to envision most other industries being able to maintain physical distance between employees and customers on a long-term basis.

And how will we ever develop herd immunity if everyone just stays shut in their homes with no visitors? I find the desire for “herd immunity” vs continued “physical distancing” a bit at odds but I am not a scientist.

I hope this communication is just a political message to the feds as suggested. I cannot imagine economic survival if we make it a foregone conclusion that businesses will never be able to operate again because they can’t survive limiting the number of customers to half or less of what they had before.

I agree that a data-based approach vs just winging it is good, but don’t see evidence of that in these criteria. I was hoping for a specific statement such as “Once the number of new cases per day declines for X consecutive days/weeks or is below X number for a certain period of time ...”

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I have a feeling DH and I will have stricter criteria for what is safe than the state does anyway. If the restaurants open up for seating, I'm not sure we will be rushing to dine out. This seems like a pretty scary virus for many, even if the the fatality rates don't turn out to be as high as originally thought. The possibility of getting hospitalized and going on a ventilator doesn't seem like a good trade off to be able to go out for pizza.

We've been trying to brainstorm activities we could do once the shelter in place is lifted - picnics, hiking, gold panning, beach days, garden visits, small get togethers in our backyard. It seems like those kinds of activities will be pretty safe and fun enough for a year or two.

There never was a vaccine for the Spanish Flu and that eventually ended, or at least is just a variation in our regular flu season now, so this won't last forever.

 

[Dtail]

+1

Conservatively, less than 1% of the population has been infected so far and almost all of them survived (less than 0.2% have been infected if you just use recorded cases). We are heading for 25%+ unemployment. The economic pressure cooker is going to blow.

And no I am not saying open the economy like the flick of a light switch. But calibrated actions need to happen fast. Shutting down Montana and South Dakota like NYC (the highest population density in the country by far - twice the density of #2 San Francisco I heard today) is insane.

Does the above statement include the infected pork plant in South Dakota?

 

[aiken]

I actually find Newsom's guidelines reassuring. They seem to me to be well-considered and science based rather than allowing political pressure to force an unduly quick re-opening.

I find them absurd, and will destroy the CA economy and cause more deaths and suffering than COVID-19.

 

[LRDave]

I find them absurd, and will destroy the CA economy and cause more deaths and suffering than COVID-19.

Even in lockdown, Covid-19 is the leading cause of death now in the US. Do you really believe that deaths for the lockdown would somehow be greater than if we let this beast free by opening up too early?

 

[misanman]

I just heard a discussion on CNBC of another factor that may affect normalization: lawsuits. So you contract Covid-19 from some social/business activity and you sue the organizer/business for failure to take some possible step that could have prevented the infection. I assume lawyers may already be gearing up for this possibility. Do they have lawsuits in CA?

 

[gauss]

Under California state law, can the governor do this unilaterally indefinitely without the consent of the legislature?

In Michigan, the Governor's emergency powers will run out at the end of the month unless renewed by the legislature. They have renewed once already and are not happy about how all things have been handled since then. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few weeks.

 

[gauss]

I have a feeling DH and I will have stricter criteria for what is safe than the state does anyway. If the restaurants open up for seating, I'm not sure we will be rushing to dine out. This seems like a pretty scary virus for many, even if the the fatality rates don't turn out to be as high as originally thought. The possibility of getting hospitalized and going on a ventilator doesn't seem like a good trade off to be able to go out for pizza.

We've been trying to brainstorm activities we could do once the shelter in place is lifted - picnics, hiking, gold panning, beach days, garden visits, small get togethers in our backyard. It seems like those kinds of activities will be pretty safe and fun enough for a year or two.

There never was a vaccine for the Spanish Flu and that eventually ended, or at least is just a variation in our regular flu season now, so this won't last forever.

But isn't this implicitly how it always use to be before all this?

Example - We like to go into the more edgy urban parts of town to check out new dining experiences. Some of our friends would never go to those places. We all have our individual risk profiles and behave based on what works for us.

 

[Midpack]

+1

Conservatively, less than 1% of the population has been infected so far and almost all of them survived (less than 0.2% have been infected if you just use recorded cases). We are heading for 25%+ unemployment. The economic pressure cooker is going to blow.

And no I am not saying open the economy like the flick of a light switch. But calibrated actions need to happen fast. Shutting down Montana and South Dakota like NYC (the highest population density in the country by far - twice the density of #2 San Francisco I heard today) is insane.

+2. We need to start considering reopening where possible. Not yet, but maybe soon? Seems like May 1, May 20 and June 1 are leading rumors to begin, I have no way to know.

Millions and millions of people have been working throughout the lockdown. Some business can restart, some can’t. Some people are low risk, some are high - and won’t be able to join at first. Urban areas are a different proposition than rural. Some cities and states have had many more cases/deaths per capita than others. And we’re all free to make our own choices, hang back if desired/possible.

I’m grateful to all who are working through this lockdown, but it’s not purely sacrifice for some as some people are suggesting. Some/many are glad they weren’t laid off or furloughed and they accept the risk. Hopefully their employers are doing everything they can to make the workplace as safe for employees as possible, though I am sure some aren’t.

And not that I’m sympathetic to politicians but they can’t win here. No matter when or how we reopen, there will be economic damage and there will be more Covid-19 cases and deaths, so lots of people will argue we waited too long and others that we reopened too soon. And the critics will have the benefit of hindsight, whereas politicians won’t (unless they wait for a vaccine - and none can afford to do that).

 

[Ready]

And we better see our politicians suffering plenty of discomfort also. One local wise-guy has already pointed out that even though the barber shops and hair salons are closed, our governor's hair looks very good these days. A bit to good perhaps.

I’ve been wondering the same thing. How are all of these politicians we see on television keeping their hair so neatly trimmed? Hmmm.

 

[MichaelB]

Looks like the roadmap announced by Gov Newsom aligns with the earlier one developed at AEI (here)

A Bloomberg Opinion column this morning by Michael Strain (also AEI) offers a 7 point checklist. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...nomy-how-to-fix-it?srnd=opinion&sref=QK42wmXj

The seven points are

- First, acknowledge that the shutdown was the right thing to do
- Then, the U.S. needs to decide what its goals are
- Policymakers need to be comfortable discussing the trade-off between lives and economic outcomes
- The U.S. will need to act without having all the necessary information
- A regional opening strategy can depend on governors
- Accept the ebbs and flows of progress
- Congress should be prepared to continue its attempts to rescue the economy over the longer term

 

[fh2000]

I watched his briefing and I am hopeful at least we have a plan. He said it is not a switch to turn on/off, but more like a dimmer. If things are bad again, he can dial down also.

I believe the road to recover for western countries (Europe, US) will be longer than China or S Korea.

 

[Scuba]

Looks like the roadmap announced by Gov Newsom aligns with the earlier one developed at AEI (here)



A Bloomberg Opinion column this morning by Michael Strain (also AEI) offers a 7 point checklist. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...nomy-how-to-fix-it?srnd=opinion&sref=QK42wmXj



The seven points are



- First, acknowledge that the shutdown was the right thing to do

- Then, the U.S. needs to decide what its goals are

- Policymakers need to be comfortable discussing the trade-off between lives and economic outcomes

- The U.S. will need to act without having all the necessary information

- A regional opening strategy can depend on governors

- Accept the ebbs and flows of progress

- Congress should be prepared to continue its attempts to rescue the economy over the longer term

At least the AEI report includes several metrics, unlike the CA criteria. Policy makers seem very risk-averse and I agree they can’t win either way. It feels like right now they’re erring on the side of being ultra-conservative re when to allow any change from sheltering at home.

The government can’t print money forever. If everyone stays at home indefinitely, many businesses will fail and sources of revenue to fund testing, help for the sick and the unemployed, and operations of our government will dry up. We won’t be able to tax our way out of this. What then?

I think the social distancing in CA has worked well to control the spread of the virus here. But we do need some metrics that are realistically achievable to let people get back to work. Based on recent information from Worldometers, it is taking almost 3 weeks for the number of cases to double. There have been less than 800 deaths in a state of 40 million. We are still getting new cases and deaths every day, which will likely continue.

 

[Scuba]

Under California state law, can the governor do this unilaterally indefinitely without the consent of the legislature?

In Michigan, the Governor's emergency powers will run out at the end of the month unless renewed by the legislature. They have renewed once already and are not happy about how all things have been handled since then. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few weeks.

I’m not sure. But even if he can’t, I cannot imagine CA’s legislature going a different direction. They wouldn’t want to be accused of valuing the economy over human life.

 

[Scuba]

I just heard a discussion on CNBC of another factor that may affect normalization: lawsuits. So you contract Covid-19 from some social/business activity and you sue the organizer/business for failure to take some possible step that could have prevented the infection. I assume lawyers may already be gearing up for this possibility. Do they have lawsuits in CA?

I haven’t heard of any yet, but am sure that will come. Just like the cruise passengers suing Princess. We are litigation happy in this country.

 

[brewer12345]

I’ve been wondering the same thing. How are all of these politicians we see on television keeping their hair so neatly trimmed? Hmmm.

Must be using the clippers they use on their dogs.

 

[Midpack]

Paraphrasing from the linked 7 points above, we ‘should aim to have as much economic activity as possible, provided that hospitals are able to handle the number of sick patients.’

We need to limit economic damage without overwhelming health care resources, which will require some significant changes in how we live and work together. We want to get past this sooner rather than later, not see how much we can flatten the curve. Some people (here and at large) won’t agree, and they can choose to continue to isolate and/or protect themselves as they see fit. We can’t act to protect our highest risk citizens indefinitely.

In the truest sense, every life is precious and of inestimable value, but government routinely makes this trade-off, in everything from setting speed limits to writing pharmaceutical regulations.

Interesting if true for those who’ve been screaming about underestimating Covid-19.

Different goals have different implications for how quickly to lift the lockdown. For example, it looks as if New York City’s hospitals will be able to handle the peak without running out of ventilators and beds. Using a metric of hospital capacity suggests New York could begin the process of at least partially reopening soon, despite a high overall caseload.

Other countries are reopening in a gradual way that could build confidence. In Austria, small shops will resume normal activity on this week, larger stores on May 1, restaurants, hotels and schools in the middle of next month, and public events can resume in July. In Denmark, nursery and primary schools might open this week. Professional baseball teams in South Korea are playing intra-squad games with an eye toward starting the official season in early May. Some shops in the Czech Republic have already been allowed to reopen. Kindergartens in Norway will be back next week.