Coronavirus-losing-potency !!!!!!

[gerntz]

Corona Virus Less Deadly!

"Good news: A new study finds that the novel coronavirus has become less lethal over the past few months. While there’s no evidence that mutations are making the virus less deadly, treatments have improved enormously as scientists have learned more.

Doctors have observed that the coronavirus case-fatality rate seems to have decreased considerably since the early days of the pandemic. But a pre-publication study from Italian universities and local public-health authorities comparing the case-fatality rates in two provinces (Ferrara and Pescara) during March and April is the first to show this might be true."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-good-news-11591399491?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

 

[MissMolly]

There is already a thread on this:

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f55/coronavirus-losing-potency-104081.html

 

[gerntz]

OK, but don't see it on the Health Forum.

 

[MissMolly]

Because all COVID related threads are supposed to be in the COVID forum perhaps?

 

[gerntz]

I went down the list of forums & came to Health before anything else & stopped. Why would I think the virus isn't under Health? Sound like there's some kind of rule or test I'm not familiar with.

 

[audreyh1]

There is already a thread on this:

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f55/coronavirus-losing-potency-104081.html

Well that thread was specifically about the Italian doctor who said He thought the virus had changed to become less virulent.

This article appears to attribute the decreasing death rates to much improved medical care, but I couldn’t get past the paywall.

All threads specific to the COVID-19 virus are contained in a separate forum.

 

[MichaelB]

The threads were merged to minimize confusion.

 

[audreyh1]

[Oops - but lost my last post.]
OK - I was able to access the article via a google search on the headline. It’s an opinion piece, but quite informative.

Interesting results from areas of Italy where the the hospital system was never originally overwhelmed - still saw huge reductions in deaths.

After adjusting for age and comorbidities, the study found the overall death rate declined by some 40% from March to April with huge reductions in those over age 80 (from 36.3% to 16.1%), and subjects with hypertension (23% to 12.1%), diabetes (30.3% to 8.4%), cardiovascular disease (31.5% to 12.1%), COPD (29.7% to 11.4%) and renal disease (32.3% to 11.5%).

The study’s findings need to be confirmed by more studies of fatality rates over time in other places. But the researchers note that the decline in death rates is unlikely to be due to less crowded hospitals since infection rates were low in the two provinces and never exceeded the intensive care unit capacity. Hospital utilization could confound results in other hot spots.

They say their study confirms anecdotes from expert physicians that “the early administration of more tailored medications, is considerably improving the clinical course of COVID-19.” Doctors are using a cocktail of targeted therapies including repurposed HIV antivirals, anticoagulants and monoclonal antibodies like tocilizumab that lower inflammatory cytokine attacks on organs.

And a note on the aggressive use of ventilators early on in New York City, yet very poor results.

Mechanical ventilators can cause long-term brain and respiratory damage as well as secondary infections. A study in the Journal of the American Medical Association has found that a shockingly high 80% of those between ages 18 and 65 who were placed on ventilators in New York City died while just 2.4% were discharged alive during the study period. More targeted therapeutics can reduce the need for ventilators.

Personally I find the whole idea of ventilators very, very frightening and hope they can be avoided by better and earlier treatment.

 

[OldGrady]

let's hear it for the nutmeg state - green !

+1

 

[pj.mask]

In Texas there has been a wide availability of tests over the last month (at least in the big cities). Cases were trending down but did a quick about face.

News said trend for Houston ICU beds shows them full in 1-2 weeks. (Houston is a medical hub for the state/country) This is all before large gatherings in the street will impact numbers. If the average is 5 days to symptoms we should see something here this week. Most pictures I have seen did not show effective mask wearing for the conditions - remember, a cloth mask doesn’t keep you safe, it keeps those around you safe. (I believe only N95 have been show to keep the wearer safe)

As for positive testing %, the state seems pretty steady with ~6% positive rate on tests so I don’t think it is a matter of increased testing all of a sudden.

 

[GravitySucks]

So what changes in treatments have improved?
Other than less aggressive use of ventilators and rolling patients in their stomachs, both of which were implemented months ago, I haven't heard of any great change in treatment. The various pharma bits have been of little use if not counter productive.

 

[audreyh1]

I believe they are detecting and treating blood clotting and cytokine storms earlier. So use of blood thinners and steroids. They also know to check for blood oxygenation problems earlier and not wait until shortage of breath is apparent.

 

[harllee]

I was wondering if anyone could give me some context on the numbers I am seeing for my state--North Carolina (population 10.5 million)--which seem concerning to me. Our Governor had been taking a slow reasonable approach to reopening and we entered phase 2 a couple of weeks ago that allows restaurants at 50% capacity but many people seem to be ignoring the rules.

In the last couple of weeks our testing has gone up (anyone who wants a test is suppose to be able to get one now) and as a consequence our cases have gone up and last week 10% of the people taking the test were positive. Looking at the CDC recommendations 10% positive seems high. The other concerning issue is the number of hospitalizations--we currently have 717 people in the state hospitalized with Covid up from 550 a couple of weeks ago. Only 15% of our intensive care beds are available (a total of around 500 beds). Anyone else see concerning numbers in their states?

North Carolina's numbers continue to climb. My county just today implemented the rule that masks are required everywhere in public with only a few exceptions. The NC Governor has recently vetoed a bill that would allow bars to open. The Governor has also shut down a stock car race venue that kept violating the 25 person rule (had 4000 unmasked people in attendance and no social distancing!). At the NC Governor's press conference yesterday he set forth requirements for schools to reopen and if things continue as they are now NC schools will not be able to reopen in August.

 

[tmm99]

North Carolina's numbers continue to climb. My county just today implemented the rule that masks are required everywhere in public with only a few exceptions. The NC Governor has recently vetoed a bill that would allow bars to open. The Governor has also shut down a stock car race venue that kept violating the 25 person rule (had 4000 unmasked people in attendance and no social distancing!). At the NC Governor's press conference yesterday he set forth requirements for schools to reopen and if things continue as they are now NC schools will not be able to reopen in August.

I remember you saying that implementing laws for seatbelts and non-smoking were met with huge oppositions in NC and I wonder if people there will be willing to wear masks in public even if the governor wants them to. I guess we will know soon enough. I hope the hospitals in your area do not get overwhelmed.

 

[harllee]

I remember you saying that implementing laws for seatbelts and non-smoking were met with huge oppositions in NC and I wonder if people there will be willing to wear masks in public even if the governor wants them to. I guess we will know soon enough. I hope the hospitals in your area do not get overwhelmed.

It does seem like many NC residents just don't like being told what do by anybody. I am just concerned we are own our way to being the next New York.

 

[Montecfo]

I remember you saying that implementing laws for seatbelts and non-smoking were met with huge oppositions in NC and I wonder if people there will be willing to wear masks in public even if the governor wants them to. I guess we will know soon enough. I hope the hospitals in your area do not get overwhelmed.

It was not just NC on the seatbelts. Compliance was very low nationwide for years.

And you will encounter some of the same types of "reasons" for not wearing them.

I always wear them in public buildings. But there are reports out there of violent altercations when some non-wearers are asked to put on a mask.

 

[Retch The Grate]

It was not just NC on the seatbelts. Compliance was very low nationwide for years.

And you will encounter some of the same types of "reasons" for not wearing them.

I always wear them in public buildings. But there are reports out there of violent altercations when some non-wearers are asked to put on a mask.

I guess if you drive into public buildings at all you'll want to rate your seatbelt wearing at always, seems like the kind of thing that bounces you around inside your car.

 

[Montecfo]

I guess if you drive into public buildings at all you'll want to rate your seatbelt wearing at always, seems like the kind of thing that bounces you around inside your car.

Well, let's face it, what could be more dangerous than driving into a building without seatbelts?

There are lots of reasons for not wearing seatbelts. Some are real killers.

 

[Winemaker]

?Que sera' sera'.

 

[harllee]

?Que sera' sera'.

I don't believe "whatever will be will be." God gave me a brain and I am going to use it. If the scientists and engineers and doctors discover something the will make us healthier, happier and live longer --like seatbelts or flossing teeth or antibiotics or not smoking or vaccines or facemasks then I am going to use all these things to help me live longer and healthier and happier.

 

[audreyh1]

?Que sera' sera'.

Seems like an odd saying for early retirees - more for those who feel fated to work for the rest of their life.

 

[Winemaker]

As a big ancestry sleuth looking back at my ancestors over the past 300 years, most nothing more than a 5th grade education, a lot of them lived well into their late 80's and 90's. That is despite they ate eggs everyday from their chickens, ate everything but the squeal and moo from their pigs and cows, drank the most god-forsaken swill they could ferment, took unsurmountable risks to leave their homeland and come to a country where they could begin a new life. They fought dictators, power hungry kings, fascists, racism, persecution, epidemics, polio, measles, a civil war, 2 world wars, 2 or more conflicts, and incredible pollution from the industrial revolution. Everything my wife and I have, is because of them and her ancestors. DW and I are healthy folks who have lived life to the fullest, and intend on doing so in the future. We will not cower in fear over things we cannot control, nor run from our adversaries when threatened. I would never be able to look my great grandparents in the eye who took a cholera infested ship from Europe to rat infested, political, racist New York City and I holed up in a heated/air conditioned home in the country because some older folks died a couple hundred miles away. Life is too short to live in fear of what the latest newscast spews. That's what my God given brain tells me.

 

[audreyh1]

Well bully for you!

 

[RobbieB]

I'm with ya baby!

If I was afraid, I wouldn't ride motorcycles.

 

[tmm99]

I'm with ya baby!

If I was afraid, I wouldn't ride motorcycles.

But I bet you wear a good hard helmet, and ride sensibly, don't you? That's what we are taking about here, I think.

My coworker told me a few years ago that when he was driving over the bay bridge, a guy on motorcycle was going in and out of traffic, zipping through between cars like a mad man and a few minutes later, the traffic stopped and he realized that the same guy was twitching on the ground unconscious.
And maybe this guy also said "I don't want to live in fear." If that's the case, then, well, good for him. He lived the way he wanted. I have no problem with that.

It would get annoying however if people don't follow guidelines and we end up having too many cases, which leads to another lockdown or hospitals getting too full...