Coronavirus-losing-potency !!!!!!

[audreyh1]

Lack of large gatherings, social distancing, mask wearing in public. All reduce transmission. So it can simply be that these action make the virus appear less virulent when it’s simply that spread is occurring more slowly.

 

[Dalmore]

We should know something definite in the next 14 days or so. Lots of large gatherings happening with the protests.

 

[harllee]

If we can make it the next 2-3 weeks without a major uptick in the U.S. that will be a really great sign, considering the reopenings and the large gatherings.

 

[REWahoo]

Coronavirus-losing-potency !!!!!!

Maybe not...

Experts dispute reports that coronavirus is becoming less lethal

...a top official with the World Health Organization, who said Monday during an online news conference that “we need to be exceptionally careful not to create a sense that all of a sudden the virus by its own volition has now decided to be less pathogenic. That is not the case at all.”

The consensus among other experts interviewed Monday is that the clinical findings in Italy likely do not reflect any change in the virus itself.

Zangrillo’s clinical observations are more likely a reflection of the fact that with the peak of the outbreak long past, there is less virus in circulation, and people may be less likely to be exposed to high doses of it. In addition, only severely sick people were likely to be tested early on, compared with the situation now when even those with mild symptoms are more likely to get swabbed, experts said.

 

[audreyh1]

We should know something definite in the next 14 days or so. Lots of large gatherings happening with the protests.

If a lot of demonstrators are wearing masks, and masks are effective, it may not.

 

[audreyh1]

Maybe not...

Experts dispute reports that coronavirus is becoming less lethal

I definitely have come to believe that it’s the size of the dose of exposure that can make a huge difference in how sick an individual gets. And a lot of things we are doing reduce the exposure. That’s certainly how I’m dealing with it - if I’m exposed, I want a small dose, so I take precautions.

“I believe it’s safe to say that the differences that doctors are reporting in Italy are entirely due to changes to medical treatment and in human behavior, which limit transmission and numbers of new infections initiated by large inocula — a larger dose of virus appears to be worse — rather than changes in the virus itself,” he said.

That makes far more sense to me.

Great article, thanks.

 

[MichaelB]

[mod hat on]
We rather not get into protests and related topics. That’s a form of political speech, discouraged by our community rules.
[mod hat off]

 

[Brat]

I definitely believe that it’s the size of the dose of exposure that can make a huge difference in how sick an individual gets. And a lot of things we are doing reduce the exposure. That’s certainly how I’m dealing with it - if I’m exposed, I want a small dose, so I take precautions.

Virologists are sequencing this virus and can actually trace its movements through the population, that is how they could tell that the NYC virus came from Europe while the west coast version came from Asia. At its core, the virus has not mutated enough to mitigate its lethality.

I agree that exposure dose is likely a major factor in the seriousness of the illness, as are age and co-morbidities. Physicians are developing experience, treatments are more effective. With many of us wearing a face mask and maintaining our distance the death rate should improve.

Now, if we could only get a handle on infections in nursing homes. I read that in Canada they called in the military to help in nursing homes and were appalled at the conditions they found.

 

[audreyh1]

Managing infections at institutions, including workplaces, is going to be key in terms of living with this virus while lessening the worst consequences for local communities. It makes sense to me that soon the bulk of the effort focuses on these.

Otherwise, for me personally I am becoming cautiously optimistic that perhaps it will get to a point where mask wearing in public limits exposure enough to mean significantly less lethal consequences. I don’t intend to participate in dine-in restaurants or large group gatherings, but I might be willing to fly again if mask wearing is required.

 

[badatmath]

Cases is the poorest indicator in some cases, more testing = more cases. Hospitalizations and deaths are better, per capita if you’re making comparisons to other states/countries.

I should have been more precise, we just hit a record number of hospitalizations. I don't really follow it very closely but it is impossible to miss it is still a significant issue in some places even as others subside.

You did note my user name "badatmath" right,

It is really very tiresome we were locked down "early" to some extent and after all this it is NOW looking a bit worse. Too soon to say really.

 

[CardsFan]

I should have been more precise, we just hit a record number of hospitalizations. I don't really follow it very closely but it is impossible to miss it is still a significant issue in some places even as others subside.

You did note my user name "badatmath" right,

It is really very tiresome we were locked down "early" to some extent and after all this it is NOW looking a bit worse. Too soon to say really.

Re: Bold above.

Are you saying we have a record number currently hospitalized? If so, please cite, I have not seen that.

Or, are you saying the total number is a record? Because that will happen every day even one person is hospitalized.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

You can't have a survival instinct unless you are an animal. A virus is just a very dumb piece of DNA or RNA. There is no teleology, only emergent "behaviour" (which is our attempt to impose meaning on a huge statistical series of events).

It's true that, on average, variants of viruses that don't kill their hosts will spread more than those that do, but the higher the R number and the longer the incubation period (on both of which points SARS-CoV-2 seems to score quite substantially), the advantage for the non-killer version will be reduced.

Thank you for posting this. I guess they don't cover the "virus survival instinct" part of question until near the end of college or grad school part of epidemiology. Then again, I do tell my beginning computer science students that "some of the things that the book and for that matter what I tell you in this course are not true". That gets their attention. [Then I explain that things are done this way to 'simplify']

 

[SecondCor521]

I don’t intend to participate in dine-in restaurants or large group gatherings, but I might be willing to fly again if mask wearing is required.

Mask wearing was required by passengers on American Airlines when I flew them domestically a few weeks ago; they provided masks at the gate if you didn't have one. I'm not sure of other airlines' policies, but I think they are similar.

 

[robnplunder]

This data suggests a worldwide downward trend in deaths. Maybe you have other data to compare to?
(Ref: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

The C19 deaths have been grossly underreported by Latin American countries (the current epicenter). When the epicenter was EU & New York/Jersey, I don't think the underreporting was this bad. This is my guess based on reports from Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil, .... For example, a few weeks ago, an Ecuador official stated that there could be 6000 deaths in their hardest-hit city. On that day, the officially reported accumulated death for Ecuador was in one hundred (now it's 3000+). I've seen similar statements from an Mexican official, too. The underreporting is said to be in the order of magnitude.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

If a lot of demonstrators are wearing masks, and masks are effective, it may not.

Speaking of masks, I've seen a couple of posters (cartoons) saying that if two people are nearby, and one is infected but both are wearing masks, the chance of the other person becoming infected is only 1.5%.

That seems incredibly good. If they were referring to N95 masks, I could understand it. With simple surgical masks or the home made "Frito Bandito" mask that most folks are wearing, hard to believe.

Does anyone know?

 

[Doribe]

This could, *could* explain why the number of new cases at the worldometers site have been fairly steady over the past few weeks but the number of new deaths is in steady decline.

I attribute the declining death with respect to cases being from the improvement in nursing home procedures. When the virus hit the nursing homes and prisons many people died with very little transmission time. Assuming that period is in the past we will see a steady state or declining based on distancing. A glitch in the experiment is the protests going on, which will possibly add a spike in the urban areas.

It could also potentially have something to do with the weather somehow.

Considering the effects around the world, I don't think we will find a weather correlation. There was some mention that high altitude may provide a benefit.

I agree that we probably won't see a second wave as long as we are reasonable and don't start kissing everyone we see. Contact tracers are out and most people will abide. Some will never cooperate with the public health departments and will spread the virus in their areas.

I am optimistic also. I have put myself in the control group for this experiment and I would like to move about the country as soon as I feel safe.

 

[Badger]

Interesting story, I wish it would be correct, and I hope it is. I do not have an epidemiology degree, but my understanding is that viruses mutate, some more readily than others, depending on its type, DNA s. RNA etc.
Smallpox, polio and other viruses that we vaccinate children with are very stable - don't mutate, which is why you don't get sick after the vaccination and other diseases being eradicated or close to. The flu virus mutates, that's why we need a new shot each year, and hope that it is the right vaccine based on best guesses and what lineages are most active in the other hemisphere.

Viruses can mutate to be more readily transmitted, more or less lethal and more or less stable. In general, a less lethal virus will survive longer.

A virus mutation that kills a host within hours, before having a chance to replicate and infect others, will cause the strain to die out very soon.

A virus mutation that does not kill the host but spreads rapidly, will infect many, and this mutation will survive.

A virus mutation that kills the host, but only gets deadly after a couple of weeks of virus replication, will result in both death and spread.

At this point, I imagine that we have strains mutating differently in different parts of the world as we are so isolated compared to how it was before most travel shut down. That the virus is mutating to a less deadly version in Italy is no guarantee for the same happening in the US. There is no mothership coordinating the virus mutation. My hope is that the virus would mutate to be less lethal and more communicable that would give us a good enough immunity against a more deadly strain that might come in another wave.

Just my two cents...

+1 Based on my background this is more reasonably expressed than most.


Cheers!

 

[Winemaker]

Just saw a TV ad inviting me to Virginia Beach, so maybe sun, surf, Vitamin D, is just what the doctor ordered.

 

[harllee]

I was wondering if anyone could give me some context on the numbers I am seeing for my state--North Carolina (population 10.5 million)--which seem concerning to me. Our Governor had been taking a slow reasonable approach to reopening and we entered phase 2 a couple of weeks ago that allows restaurants at 50% capacity but many people seem to be ignoring the rules.

In the last couple of weeks our testing has gone up (anyone who wants a test is suppose to be able to get one now) and as a consequence our cases have gone up and last week 10% of the people taking the test were positive. Looking at the CDC recommendations 10% positive seems high. The other concerning issue is the number of hospitalizations--we currently have 717 people in the state hospitalized with Covid up from 550 a couple of weeks ago. Only 15% of our intensive care beds are available (a total of around 500 beds). Anyone else see concerning numbers in their states?

 

[USGrant1962]

This site compares some state statistics, though it is a bit alarmist in allocating red "trending poorly" ratings - especially on a number states with very few cases and very low positivity.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

 

[Gumby]

Let's hear it for The Nutmeg State - Green !

 

[MissMolly]

We are on a definite upward trend in KY and it makes me very nervous. We had done so well up until fairly recently.

 

[cathy63]

I was wondering if anyone could give me some context on the numbers I am seeing for my state--North Carolina (population 10.5 million)--which seem concerning to me. Our Governor had been taking a slow reasonable approach to reopening and we entered phase 2 a couple of weeks ago that allows restaurants at 50% capacity but many people seem to be ignoring the rules.

In the last couple of weeks our testing has gone up (anyone who wants a test is suppose to be able to get one now) and as a consequence our cases have gone up and last week 10% of the people taking the test were positive. Looking at the CDC recommendations 10% positive seems high. The other concerning issue is the number of hospitalizations--we currently have 717 people in the state hospitalized with Covid up from 550 a couple of weeks ago. Only 15% of our intensive care beds are available (a total of around 500 beds). Anyone else see concerning numbers in their states?

Those numbers do seem high! One way to get some context for the data is to drill down by county so you can see what's going on in more detail in your area, and whether this is a local problem or across the whole state. Especially in larger states, there can be a couple of hot spots that throw off the state-wide data even though most areas may be doing quite well. Here are a couple of NYT pages that I think are useful for pinpointing the trouble spots and comparing different metro areas:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html

 

[harllee]

This site compares some state statistics, though it is a bit alarmist in allocating red "trending poorly" ratings - especially on a number states with very few cases and very low positivity.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

Thank you for those statistics. It appears from those charts that North Carolina could be in big trouble--cases, hospitalizations and deaths increasing with low availability of ICU beds. North Carolina's "doubling" rate of 21 days is especially alarming. I think our Governor has been on the right track but people are ignoring his rules and he is being sued right and left. First the Churches sued and won their case and now can open with no restrictions. Now the bars, fitness centers and strip clubs are suing to reopen. Some businesses that are not suppose to be opening at all are opening any way and the local authorities say they will not enforce the Governor's rules. Case in point--the next county over from me has a car race track (not Nascar). They are only suppose to have 25 fans in attendance. The last 2 Saturday nights they have opened with 4000 in attendance with no masks or social distancing and the local Sheriff has refused to do anything. The newspaper said that if they open tonight there is going to be a big stand off between the Governor and the Sheriff.

 

[harllee]

Those numbers do seem high! One way to get some context for the data is to drill down by county so you can see what's going on in more detail in your area, and whether this is a local problem or across the whole state. Especially in larger states, there can be a couple of hot spots that throw off the state-wide data even though most areas may be doing quite well. Here are a couple of NYT pages that I think are useful for pinpointing the trouble spots and comparing different metro areas:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html

Thank you for those maps. In North Carolina the numbers look the worst in the higher population areas in the center of the state (where I live!). The mountains and coastal areas have had less cases but now that tourism is picking up and tourists are flocking to those areas their numbers are starting increasing too.