COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[Teacher Terry]

Many states have already said no school until August.

 

[Ready]

Many states have already said no school until August.

Is that because they think the pandemic will prevent us from reopening them before August, or are they just assuming that schools will be closed during the normal summer break?

Is it possible that the schools just cancel summer break and use the time we have off now as the summer break?

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

Is that because they think the pandemic will prevent us from reopening them before August, or are they just assuming that schools will be closed during the normal summer break?

Is it possible that the schools just cancel summer break and use the time we have off now as the summer break?

That will only work in some parts of the country. For example, a lot of schools in Philly don't have AC. Even my local junior and senior high schools don't have AC in all the rooms, so that's not an option.

I'm predicting that schools might try computer based learning from home, but that could be challenging for parents that have to work from home or that have to go out to work. No good answer for that.

 

[Ready]

I could see moving to computer based learning for older kids. But what do you do with all those 6 year olds in first grade? I can’t imagine them being ready to operate a computer and having the discipline to sit by the computer at home and learn. Their attention spans are too short. And they can’t be home alone at that age.

It’s got to be an overwhelming thing for parents of young kids to be thinking about right now with so much uncertainty about the duration of this pandemic.

 

[USGrant1962]

At some point we have to find a way to open schools again. Kids staying at home for weeks or months on end is very bad for everyone. I think that needs to happen before we worry about restaurants or movie theaters.

Yes, I meant to mention that normalization would be dependent on vulnerable populations continuing to take aggressive precautions. There is really no way around it - shutting down society to protect a vulnerable population from all risk is not sustainable (and never was).

So the government recommendations would have to continue to encourage self-isolation for older folks, proscribe nursing home/LTC visits, continue social distancing and hygiene, and encourage mindfulness of vulnerable folks.

My state shut down all schools in the state a week ago based on one (1) community transmitted case, and we still have only 8 out of 24 counties with over 2 recorded cases - not good.

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

I could see moving to computer based learning for older kids. But what do you do with all those 6 year olds in first grade? I can’t imagine them being ready to operate a computer and having the discipline to sit by the computer at home and learn. Their attention spans are too short. And they can’t be home alone at that age.

It’s got to be an overwhelming thing for parents of young kids to be thinking about right now with so much uncertainty about the duration of this pandemic.

Yup, I could see putting a 6 year old in front of a computer and you go into another room and try to get some work done. You check up on them 30 minutes later and they're curled up in a ball on the floor sleeping.

I remember when I had 3 boys going to school. Then, you'd need 3 computers and 3 separate rooms to set them up in.

 

[Teacher Terry]

There are only a few months of school left away so assuming that they don’t want to risk it.

 

[Sunset]

I'm only pointing out that I just don't see where the US relative lack of testing to date would have made a significant difference.
....
-ERD50

If we had testing ability, we could have tested every person coming off a plane or ship. The virus was brought here.

By catching the infected folks as they arrived, we could have quarantined them, and only them.

Instead we let them run all over the country infecting 4 to 6 other people each.

 

[Beststash]

I'm far more concerned about where I will be then and hoping it will be "above ground".

+1

 

[donheff]

So now I'm thinking that the "15 days to slow the spread" that the Covid-19 task force is recommending might lead to the exit strategy. After 15 days (8 days from now I think, so starting April 1) if the infection/mortality curves have started to slow Dr. Fauci can begin relaxing some of the recommendation. Especially things like applying social distancing to businesses.


I think that Federal leadership, based on bending the curves, might give the Governors and Mayors the cover they need to dig themselves out of the hole they have dug.

That is the hope - with the expectation that further waves may require repeat (hopefully less stringent) distancing. If it works, I wonder if states with reported low incidents and no shutdowns may find themselves climbing the curve and going through shutdowns later or whether they have done enough distancing already to keep the R rate down enough that they never have a serious problem.

 

[Gumby]

I'm expecting a longer time here in CT. The Governor's executive orders all go until April 22. Moreover, we (and NJ) have been following what NY does (since it is the big population center), so it seems unlikely that we will lift restrictions before they do. And they have big problem right now. We'll see.

 

[Toocold]

Here is how I think the exit will happen.

On Tuesday, they will conduct the study with the new treatment in NY and prove out what has already been seen (anecdotally) in other countries. The death rate will go down to .6% to 1%, which is still high but much more tolerable than original estimates. They will shift from mass social isolation to segment population isolation, in which they will advise anybody above 70 and/or immuno-compromised to continue to stay home. They will develop a playbook on how to ramp-up and down inpatient capacity, including equipment needed for healthcare workers.

They will open up the economy, and we will experience a season of people getting the virus which will put pressure all over but we'll manage through this. By next year, we will have a vaccine for this.

How this will be reflected in the stock market and how many jobs will be lost is unknown because it will depend on what actions people take and how people interpret this, but I think this is a 1-3 month event, not a 12-24 month event.

Ultimately you can see this problem with three key variables: 1) Covid-19 death rate, 2) health worker capacity, 3) economic destruction of containment. When 1 goes down, 2 goes up, 3 goes up, there will be a balancing point. From an investment perspective, that's how I've been thinking about deploying cash (into the market).

 

[BeachOrCity]

Here is how I think the exit will happen.

On Tuesday, they will conduct the study with the new treatment in NY and prove out what has already been seen (anecdotally) in other countries. The death rate will go down to .6% to 1%, which is still high but much more tolerable than original estimates. They will shift from mass social isolation to segment population isolation, in which they will advise anybody above 70 and/or immuno-compromised to continue to stay home. They will develop a playbook on how to ramp-up and down inpatient capacity, including equipment needed for healthcare workers.

They will open up the economy, and we will experience a season of people getting the virus which will put pressure all over but we'll manage through this. By next year, we will have a vaccine for this.

How this will be reflected in the stock market and how many jobs will be lost is unknown because it will depend on what actions people take and how people interpret this, but I think this is a 1-3 month event, not a 12-24 month event.

Is there a reputable source for any of this?

 

[Toocold]

Is there a reputable source for any of this?

No, this is fake news

It's my general perspective and a framework for thinking about this issue. You can do your own exercise on understanding current treatment options, where we currently stand on masks, ventilators, PPEs, and see a proxy of the economic impact of containment.

 

[Midpack]

So now I'm thinking that the "15 days to slow the spread" that the Covid-19 task force is recommending might lead to the exit strategy. After 15 days (8 days from now I think, so starting April 1) if the infection/mortality curves have started to slow Dr. Fauci can begin relaxing some of the recommendation. Especially things like applying social distancing to businesses.

So instead of recommending "avoid eating or drinking in bars, restaurants..." the next 15 days should say "eat in restaurants that practice social distancing (tables 6 feet apart) and enhanced hygiene". And instead of "Avoid discretionary travel, shopping trips, and social visits" they could recommend "practice social distancing, and patronize businesses that do". Lastly, wider availability of surgical and N95 masks in a week or two might lead to a recommendation for, say, restaurant servers to wear masks.

I think that Federal leadership, based on bending the curves, might give the Governors and Mayors the cover they need to dig themselves out of the hole they have dug.

Yes, I meant to mention that normalization would be dependent on vulnerable populations continuing to take aggressive precautions. There is really no way around it - shutting down society to protect a vulnerable population from all risk is not sustainable (and never was).

So the government recommendations would have to continue to encourage self-isolation for older folks, proscribe nursing home/LTC visits, continue social distancing and hygiene, and encourage mindfulness of vulnerable folks.

My state shut down all schools in the state a week ago based on one (1) community transmitted case, and we still have only 8 out of 24 counties with over 2 recorded cases - not good.

Here is how I think the exit will happen.

On Tuesday, they will conduct the study with the new treatment in NY and prove out what has already been seen (anecdotally) in other countries. The death rate will go down to .6% to 1%, which is still high but much more tolerable than original estimates. They will shift from mass social isolation to segment population isolation, in which they will advise anybody above 70 and/or immuno-compromised to continue to stay home. They will develop a playbook on how to ramp-up and down inpatient capacity, including equipment needed for healthcare workers.

They will open up the economy, and we will experience a season of people getting the virus which will put pressure all over but we'll manage through this. By next year, we will have a vaccine for this.

How this will be reflected in the stock market and how many jobs will be lost is unknown because it will depend on what actions people take and how people interpret this, but I think this is a 1-3 month event, not a 12-24 month event.

Ultimately you can see this problem with three key variables: 1) Covid-19 death rate, 2) health worker capacity, 3) economic destruction of containment. When 1 goes down, 2 goes up, 3 goes up, there will be a balancing point. From an investment perspective, that's how I've been thinking about deploying cash (into the market).

+1. A good thought string IMHO. I'm not second guessing the isolation steps we've taken, unfortunately they were necessary for our circumstances. But we need to return to normal sooner rather than later. We have to balance the best health outcome with the economic consequences of extending longer. Several factors are improving daily, though not yet in infection stats. It will be interesting to see the role individual civil disobedience will play versus government recommendations in coming out of this. Most people are playing nice for 15 days (we're about halfway now), after that or at some later date, we'll see.

 

[Midpack]

At some point we have to find a way to open schools again. Kids staying at home for weeks or months on end is very bad for everyone. I think that needs to happen before we worry about restaurants or movie theaters.

I'm not sure why one is more important than another. We need to be looking to get everything going again (not yet, but soon), with precautions.

 

[Chuckanut]

Many states have already said no school until August.

Which ones have announced that decision?

 

[LRDave]

+1. A good thought string IMHO. I'm not second guessing the isolation steps we've taken, unfortunately they were necessary for our circumstances. But we need to return to normal sooner rather than later. We have to balance the best health outcome with the economic consequences of extending longer. Several factors are improving daily, though not yet in infection stats. It will be interesting to see the role individual civil disobedience will play versus government recommendations in coming out of this. Most people are playing nice for 15 days (we're about halfway now), after that or at some later date, we'll see.

In early April, that's about when the US will start to see the very worst horror stories that were seen in Italy.

 

[cathy63]

Which ones have announced that decision?

Not a decision, but a projection: https://www.politico.com/states/cal...ikely-to-remain-closed-through-summer-1267579

California's schools will likely stay closed for the rest of the academic year over coronavirus concerns, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday in a jaw-dropping prediction for families barely settling into new weekday routines with children at home.

 

[donheff]

Governor Cuomo is talking about exit strategy in his press conference right now. If you missed it might be worth looking for a recording of it.

 

[ncbill]

I don't think it's realistic to expect any schools on a normal late summer-early June schedule (K-12, college/university) to be meeting back in person for the remainder of the academic year.

Restrictions will be relaxed after enough fatigue sets in...but that will almost certainly lead to another wave of infections, though hopefully we'll have more thoroughly tested drug treatments by then...still probably too early for a vaccine.

DW teaches an elective at her K-12 private school, now online for the first time ever, so we just hope her contract gets renewed in May.

 

[Midpack]

Governor Cuomo is talking about exit strategy in his press conference right now. If you missed it might be worth looking for a recording of it.

Thanks. Listening now

New York now represents nearly 6 percent of global cases and Mr. Cuomo’s order followed a string of increasingly urgent measures to suppress the spread of disease. Still, on Monday, the governor also began to speak about taking steps to pivot to a more functional economy.

“I take total responsibility for shutting off the economy in terms of essential workers,” he said. “But we also have to start to plan the pivot back to economic functionality. You can’t stop the economy forever.”

 

[Freedom56]

The surge is starting to break in European countries that have shutdown as expected. I hope they enforce the shutdown better than they have. There is talk going around now that they will lift the stay at home requirements at the federal level for those that are in the low risk group and return to work and also those that have recovered even though it may severely risk those in the high risk category. Some people seem to feel that it's not worth risking the entire economy to save 2-3 percent of the population. I personally think the economy could sustain a 30 day shutdown and we should wait the full period and then gradually phase back businesses. I really fail to see why some officials are already giving up after one week of a limited shutdown.

 

[Toocold]

Yes - NY is key. They are the vanguard to this.

Listen to Cuomo's thought process around 50 minutes. This will naturally lead from a single strategy to one based on population/risk segmentation.

 

[Midpack]

The surge is starting to break in European countries that have shutdown as expected. I hope they enforce the shutdown better than they have. There is talk going around now that they will lift the stay at home requirements at the federal level for those that are in the low risk group and return to work and also those that have recovered even though it may severely risk those in the high risk category. Some people seem to feel that it's not worth risking the entire economy to save 2-3 percent of the population. I personally think the economy could sustain a 30 day shutdown and we should wait the full period and then gradually phase back businesses. I really fail to see why some officials are already giving up after one week of a limited shutdown.

Probably because "Nearly 40% of Americans can't cover a surprise $400 expense" just last May - and unemployment just hit millions of Americans with more to come. It shouldn't be 40% but evidently it is...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nearly-40-of-americans-cant-cover-a-surprise-400-expense/