Graph with a line for each of 19 sources, between May1 to June 1
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...s-disease-experts-aim-predict-covid-19-s-toll
Surveys of infectious disease experts aim to predict COVID-19’s toll
By Jeffrey Brainard
Apr. 23, 2020
on average, they estimated that in the most likely scenario, the number of deaths will reach 45,157 on 1 May and 74,631 on 1 June.
The experts’ understanding of the dynamics of disease outbreaks informs their estimates,...
An inspiration for the effort is the Good Judgment Project,
https://goodjudgment.com/
launched by psychologists at the University of Pennsylvania in 2011. It studied ways to improve forecasting using crowdsourcing; its team won competitions sponsored by an organization funded by U.S. spy agencies—the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity...
He notes that, in the first surveys of disease experts he conducted, the consensus predictions of the number of confirmed U.S. cases were lower than those actually reported later. But as the pandemic has expanded, McAndrew says, the forecasts made by the experts have become increasingle accurate...
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...s-disease-experts-aim-predict-covid-19-s-toll
Surveys of infectious disease experts aim to predict COVID-19’s toll
By Jeffrey Brainard
Apr. 23, 2020
on average, they estimated that in the most likely scenario, the number of deaths will reach 45,157 on 1 May and 74,631 on 1 June.
The experts’ understanding of the dynamics of disease outbreaks informs their estimates,...
An inspiration for the effort is the Good Judgment Project,
https://goodjudgment.com/
launched by psychologists at the University of Pennsylvania in 2011. It studied ways to improve forecasting using crowdsourcing; its team won competitions sponsored by an organization funded by U.S. spy agencies—the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity...
He notes that, in the first surveys of disease experts he conducted, the consensus predictions of the number of confirmed U.S. cases were lower than those actually reported later. But as the pandemic has expanded, McAndrew says, the forecasts made by the experts have become increasingle accurate...