Here’s Hoping the Peak is Apr 15!

[timo2]

And this to add to the mix. Was it human to animal? and all that implies... imagine "stay home" dogs and house cats.



https://www.9news.com/article/news/...Mdfm9nx5mlOeJPo5BkwplSCFQq5wMEq5USelHO5_O6X9Q

according to some of my neighbors, 'outside' pet cats are being abandoned because the owners don't know if they picked up coronavirus....and this was before that tiger story.

 

[badatmath]

I wish I sat 6 feet away from my coworkers. . . Not even close.

 

[Chuckanut]

The answer depends upon a person's worldview. And this is where the big fight will be: Do people exist to serve the economy, or does the economy exist to serve people?

It's a feedback loop - people and economics. Both support each other, both take from each other. Both require the other one to be healthy and successful.

 

[fh2000]

California is projected to peak on April 14th. Last count the infections were around 13,000.

In Orange County we have 834 infections, 14 deaths. Pretty low for a county with 3.1 million people. But I keep wondering why. Is it because we started the social distancing early enough, or is it because we just delayed it long enough to move the big wave a few weeks further out.

I wish it could be next week, but according to LA Times, California peak will be sometime in May.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-06/newsom-california-ventilators-coronavirus-peak

"California has enough ventilators for now, coronavirus peak expected in May, Newsom says"

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Reading these posts makes me thing people really have no understanding of economics.

The government giving you money is meaningless. Money buys THINGS and if those things aren't being produced, how much money you have means nothing.

That is why at some point in time, more and more of the economy must be producing goods and services, regardless of whether a vaccine exists or not.

Eventually things that are considered non-essential become increasingly essential. For example, while you can skip a dental cleaning or two, you can't skip them forever. You can put off changing the oil in your vehicle for awhile, but not forever.

We here (for the most part) are NOT typical. We here get passive income, and aren't producing goods and services (just consuming them). But somebody better do that or we will quickly run out of stuff to consume.

And if you think that the few producers of goods and services (or other countries for that matter) will be content with the majority of Americans sitting at home while they work for paper ($), it is only a matter of time until they figure out that $ isn't worth the paper it is printed on.

 

[MissMolly]

I wish it could be next week, but according to LA Times, California peak will be sometime in May.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-06/newsom-california-ventilators-coronavirus-peak

"California has enough ventilators for now, coronavirus peak expected in May, Newsom says"

According to this, California's peak resource use is April 14 - just around the corner.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

[BreathFree]

Can someone explain how we get to everyone back at work without a vaccine? I do not understand the leap being made. Let's pretend that the peak is hit by end of April and cases decline through the end of May. Aside from those with proven antibodies? How does anyone else go back to work without running the risk of getting sick and helping ignite a second wave? Maybe I am missing something fundamental, but I do not see it.

You're not missing anything. I'm surprised this notion is still being discussed without a treatment or vaccine available. Look how fast the virus spread with just one infected person in the U.S. Now it has propagated across the country, laying in wait. The contagious will start the chain reaction again if we crank up the economy.

If it's a matter of starting and stopping the economy repeatedly, that will sure get old quick, and would take forever to reach herd immunity. There is 350,000 infected in U.S. now, we need 800 times that number to reach 80% of the population for herd immunity.

 

[Calico]

Me too. I lost my Great Grandmother, who was sure she was out of danger, to the 1918 Flu epidemic.

Let me repeat what Cramer said: "as great as it is to get the economy moving again, you can’t create demand if you’re afraid of getting sick. ... It doesn’t matter when you say America’s open for business, I think we’re going to be scared to do things."

That is me he is speaking of. It will be awhile until I, personally, am willing to "get out there" -- I plan on waiting until the smoke is completely cleared.

+1

I am planning to retire in December.

I am certain my employer will eventually expect us to return to w#ork onsite*, and I'm very certain it will be long before a vaccine is available. At which point I will tell my boss either (1) they let me w#ork from home through the end of the year and then I retire, or (2) I will give them two weeks' notice immediately. I'm not willing to gamble my life for a few more dollars in my pension check every month.

I didn't w#rk for 47 years, and beat cancer, to be taken out by the second wave of this virus because other people are making foolish decisions. And they will make foolish decisions. For God's sake, my neighbors haven't even been willing to stay home for a lousy THREE WEEKS.

I firmly believe the "we need to open the economy" camp will win, and they will win long before it is prudent to do so.

*Note: we do not produce any goods. We provide a service, and we are all 100% capable of doing the work from home.

 

[RonBoyd]

The contagious will start the chain reaction again if we crank up the economy.

https://www.nptelegraph.com/news/in...cle_dccdd28e-76f0-11ea-99fb-8beb5738dd67.html

"When the Spanish flu hit [Oct. 4, 1918], North Platte leaders all but shut down their town for six weeks ...

Businesses suffered deep financial losses. Two more flu waves followed before spring. Not until the end of 1920 did it fully subside worldwide.

By the end of 1918, the Spanish flu had killed 200 to 250 people in Lincoln County, this newspaper reported in May 1919."

 

[statsman]

In Orange County we have 834 infections, 14 deaths. Pretty low for a county with 3.1 million people. But I keep wondering why. Is it because we started the social distancing early enough, or is it because we just delayed it long enough to move the big wave a few weeks further out.

It is more likely the virus was making it's way through the state in December 2019, maybe as early as Thanksgiving, and those infection and death counts are not accounted for.

 

[JoeWras]

CNBC had a doctor on this morning at about 6:15.

His vision is roughly this:
- Won't go away over the summer, but will just be very sporadic
- New waves will hit in the fall
- New waves can be managed if:
+ There is widespread testing and subsequent contact tracing
+ There is a treatment
+ We have a plan

In other words, he sees it being a continuing problem, especially next winter, but more of a regional issue that will jump from place to place. He used the old smallpox and polio outbreaks as an analog.

He sees schools opening, but also closing on a district basis based on testing and outbreaks.

He is also hopeful for treatments. But stressed we need to be ready. Treatments don't have to be a cure, just helpful.

 

[Amethyst]

I was thinking of a polio analogy, myself.

I grew up not too far outside NYC. The town where I was born was a polio hotspot and is one of NJ's COVID-19 hotspots. Although the polio vaccine was available for me, my older brother and sister reported being made to stay away from public playgrounds and pools every summer, due to polio fears. My Mother confirmed this fear. She said all the parents were terrified until, thank God, the vaccine came along.

Mr. A., by contrast, grew up in central PA and does not remember hearing anything about polio, or being afraid to go anywhere. On the COVID-19 map, that area has no red dots yet. His birth county only has 6 cases.

CNBC had a doctor on this morning at about 6:15.

His vision is roughly this:
- Won't go away over the summer, but will just be very sporadic
- New waves will hit in the fall
- New waves can be managed if:
+ There is widespread testing and subsequent contact tracing
+ There is a treatment
+ We have a plan

In other words, he sees it being a continuing problem, especially next winter, but more of a regional issue that will jump from place to place. He used the old smallpox and polio outbreaks as an analog.

He sees schools opening, but also closing on a district basis based on testing and outbreaks.

He is also hopeful for treatments. But stressed we need to be ready. Treatments don't have to be a cure, just helpful.

 

[donheff]

CNBC had a doctor on this morning at about 6:15.

His vision is roughly this:
- Won't go away over the summer, but will just be very sporadic
- New waves will hit in the fall
- New waves can be managed if:
+ There is widespread testing and subsequent contact tracing
+ There is a treatment
+ We have a plan

In other words, he sees it being a continuing problem, especially next winter, but more of a regional issue that will jump from place to place. He used the old smallpox and polio outbreaks as an analog.

He sees schools opening, but also closing on a district basis based on testing and outbreaks.

He is also hopeful for treatments. But stressed we need to be ready. Treatments don't have to be a cure, just helpful.

+1 If you listened to Fauci early on this is what he was saying. He has always said that a lot of us will get the virus and most of us will be fine. The key is to flatten the curve and institute widespread testing and tracing like South Korea and China. That way we can treat those that need hospitalization (and lose a lot of those) without absolute chaos while we work on treatments and vaccines.

The biggest problem I see is that we don't seem to have a Manhattan Project oriented towards getting those tests out and the people to administer them and trace outbreaks. This is absolutely a Federal responsibility. Use a quarter billion of the cash we are conjuring up and use the DPA to procure the resources to test and trace and to find treatments and vaccines.

 

[MichaelB]

CNBC had a doctor on this morning at about 6:15.

His vision is roughly this:
- Won't go away over the summer, but will just be very sporadic
- New waves will hit in the fall
- New waves can be managed if:
+ There is widespread testing and subsequent contact tracing
+ There is a treatment
+ We have a plan

In other words, he sees it being a continuing problem, especially next winter, but more of a regional issue that will jump from place to place. He used the old smallpox and polio outbreaks as an analog.

He sees schools opening, but also closing on a district basis based on testing and outbreaks.

He is also hopeful for treatments. But stressed we need to be ready. Treatments don't have to be a cure, just helpful.

Is that Scott Gottlieb? His roadmap was developed at the AEI, and can be found here https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

 

[jim584672]

Until a vaccine comes this is not going away anytime soon. Too many optimists being unrealistic.

 

[dixonge]

Can someone explain how we get to everyone back at work without a vaccine? I do not understand the leap being made. Let's pretend that the peak is hit by end of April and cases decline through the end of May. Aside from those with proven antibodies? How does anyone else go back to work without running the risk of getting sick and helping ignite a second wave? Maybe I am missing something fundamental, but I do not see it.

What would you propose as an alternative - wait until some time next year when the vaccine comes out, and *then* people can go back to work? That seems a bit ... untenable.

I think we will all have to do what should have been done at the beginning - massive testing centers, massive tracking and tracing. Keep the curve as flat as possible. Lift the lockdowns. Lots of masks.

I keep going back to South Korea's example. They never even shut down 'non-essential' businesses this whole time. They flattened the curve and have experienced a slow trickle, which is about as good as it's going to get until a vaccine is produced.

For more info, you can read this great detailed article on how S. Korea conquered coronavirus without a lockdown

 

[aaronc879]

Can someone explain how we get to everyone back at work without a vaccine? I do not understand the leap being made. Let's pretend that the peak is hit by end of April and cases decline through the end of May. Aside from those with proven antibodies? How does anyone else go back to work without running the risk of getting sick and helping ignite a second wave? Maybe I am missing something fundamental, but I do not see it.

What do you suggest as an alternative? Give every legal adult citizen $1000/wk for the next 15 months or so until a vaccine is ready? Corporations would need to be bailed out as well.

 

[RonBoyd]

What would you propose as an alternative...

I believe we will find that "work from home" will be proven the new workplace. In fact, I will survive this "stay at home" directive primarily because of it.

https://drizly.com/

 

[aaronc879]

I believe we will find that "work from home" will be proven the new workplace. In fact, I will survive this "stay at home" directive primarily because of it.

https://drizly.com/

Most of the people I know don't have jobs that allow the option of working from home, including me. Probably close to half of US jobs are not jobs that could be done from home.

 

[ivinsfan]

I believe we will find that "work from home" will be proven the new workplace. In fact, I will survive this "stay at home" directive primarily because of it.

https://drizly.com/

Nice for you but what about all the people that can't work from home..Did you want food for the next few months while you work from home?

People touting this work from home "solution" are beginning to resemble the "let them eat cake" remark.

 

[ivinsfan]

What do you suggest as an alternative? Give every legal adult citizen $1000/wk for the next 15 months or so until a vaccine is ready? Corporations would need to be bailed out as well.

15 months would be a miracle timeline, we've gone from people not taking this seriously to people thinking we can lock down this country for a year or two, like the economy is just a light switch you can turn on and off. You're 1000 a week wouldn't do you much good if their is nothing to buy or eat with it.

 

[JoeWras]

Is that Scott Gottlieb? His roadmap was developed at the AEI, and can be found here https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

YES.

 

[RonBoyd]

Nice for you but what about all the people that can't work from home..

Yeah, I should have added the graphic to emphasis the point of my post -- surviving the quarantine. (Another failed attempt at humor.)

Let the drinks come to you.

Beer, wine and liquor delivered in under 60 minutes.

Nevertheless, the historical workplace will never be the same after this is over. I don't know (nor want to predict) to what degree but it will be different.

Hmmm. Brings to mind: "In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." --Eric Hoffer

 

[ivinsfan]

Yeah, I should have added the graphic to emphasis the point of my post -- surviving the quarantine.



Nevertheless, the historical workplace will never be the same after this is over. I don't know (nor want to predict) to what degree but it will different.

I'm conflicted about booze being essential...it's funny what people focus on in a panic situation...I'm honestly concerned that people who provide our everyday living needs are going to start revolting about the way they have to expose themselves when others don't. Am I the only one who thinks this might turn into a problem?

 

[Midpack]

I'm conflicted about booze being essential...it's funny what people focus on in a panic situation...I'm honestly concerned that people who provide our everyday living needs are going to start revolting about the way they have to expose themselves when others don't. Am I the only one who thinks this might turn into a problem?

This is unchartered territory, so of course there will be problems. Can you name any approach that wouldn't result in problems of one sort or another? There isn't an approach that wouldn't give us problems...