How quickly back to normal?

[LARS]

So given general availability of vaccine by April-June of 2021 time frame what does your crystal ball tell you on how quickly life will return to normal?

Economic life return as quickly or will it lag "normal" life?

Housing as well?

 

[NYEXPAT]

Pretty much back to normal (exception facemasks) around here. The streets are full of people as are the restaurants. Just yesterday they took off the restriction of children not allowed in restaurants, so now Date Night has ended and we will go out to eat a few times a week with the kids. Our live in help is now allowed to leave on the weekends as well. We are planning on getting back to Argentina soon and up to the USA around Christmas. Seeing more tourists in the streets as well. The country has managed very well without the vaccine with areas like Iquito already reaching herd immunity and Lima well on its way.
We came out of flu season with very managable rates of infection and the economy has now opened up again. We got an early spring and with the high UV levels in the summer that should help. Don´t touch your face is working very well.

 

[Car-Guy]

Pretty much back to normal (exception facemasks) around here.

Pretty much the same here in the east/central Texas country side... I'm not sure about the big cities since I haven't been to any of them in ~9 months... Even face mask usage is way down... Maybe to ~60%... Everything is open and seems to be back to normal capacities. Even the local Walmart was "packed" on black Friday.

 

[REWahoo]

Even face mask usage is way down... Maybe to ~60%... Everything is open and seems to be back to normal capacities. Even the local Walmart was "packed" on black Friday.

Based on the trend we're seeing here, the next business that will be "packed" are hospitals and ICUs...

 

[Aerides]

I am not looking at next summer yet other than as a fantasy. I think the next 2 months are going to be brutal. Keeping one's guard up now should be the focus, being careful, helping to reduce the spread. Unfortunately, it looks like too many people in too many places are acting like they're about to cross the finish line when there are 4-6 more miles left in this marathon.

My concern is less about avoiding getting sick for me, but avoiding making others sick if I got it and wasn't aware for a few days (as most cases seem to be).

There'll be plenty of time to think about where to go shopping and travelling after I get my jab. I will have no problem figuring out how to spend lots of money.

 

[HenryD]

Based on the trend we're seeing here, the next business that will be "packed" are hospitals and ICUs...

We were just looking like we were starting to get over the second peak around here last week. Based on all the travel that appeared to happen for Thanksgiving I suspect things will be a mess around Christmas. DW has a colonoscopy scheduled that week that I suspect will get bumped. Hospital protocols have already tightened up this week.

I think the summer will be pretty normal for a lot of people here. We won't be traveling by air or eating at a sit-down restaurant until autumn, and we'll stay masked in public indoors until vaccinated. But that's by choice. Our summer hobby is locally regional and naturally socially distant.

 

[Ready]

With over 300 million people in the US it’s going to take the better part of a year to vaccinate enough of the population to build herd immunity. I’m hopeful that things start to look normal again in early 2022.

It will happen gradually. I see restaurants opening to partial capacity by the middle of next year. I could even see sporting events being allowed with maybe 25% of the normal stadium seating capacity. As the infection rates go down things will gradually loosen up. Big cities will have to be more cautious because of the population density. Rural areas may return to normal much sooner.

 

[Midpack]

I’m guessing second half of 2021 at the earliest. It’s going to take quite a while before we reach “critical mass” with vaccinations, and from what I read there are MANY people who aren’t planning on getting the vaccine at present - I’ve seen as high as 40% won’t. I assume many/most of them will change their minds, but only after the earlier adopters show clear benefits. Sadly a lot more people will die before the end is in site...

 

[Car-Guy]

Based on the trend we're seeing here, the next business that will be "packed" are hospitals and ICUs...

I think they are already pretty full... Honestly I think it is still on everyone's "minds" but it's not going to stop them anymore. Maybe slow them down but not stopping them.

 

[Midpack]

I think they are already pretty full.. .

But we’re not at the peak yet.

 

[Ronstar]

If normal includes full attendance on planes, in restaurants, concerts, cruise ships, sporting events - I’d say 2023. Maybe late 2022.

 

[gerntz]

With over 300 million people in the US it’s going to take the better part of a year to vaccinate enough of the population to build herd immunity. I’m hopeful that things start to look normal again in early 2022.

Don't ask me where at this point, but couple of days ago I read that there will enough vaccines, multiple sources, to vaccinate everyone in US by June. So how long after that will those that want it get it? I'd guess August.

Will enough get it to achieve herd immunity?

Two things:
- As I understand it's not approved for those under age 18, so if that doesn't change there will still be a huge population of spreaders out there, mainly asymptomatic.
- Some just won't get it, just they don't get every other vaccine.

Add those groups together and it could remain a big though lesser problem well beyond then.

 

[MuirWannabe]

I’m probably misunderstanding. But I plan to get the vaccine as soon as available. Once I have the vaccine then, for me, life will be back to normal. No concern over getting the disease. I’ll travel and get back on with it. Already have a Europe trip planned for July. So, hopefully the vaccine will be available for folks like me much sooner than that. What’s there to worry about once you’ve been vaccinated?

 

[REWahoo]

What’s there to worry about once you’ve been vaccinated?

The possibility of becoming infected and passing it on to others who aren't vaccinated?

I've seen no studies showing being vaccinated prevents you from becoming a "carrier" even though you might not become ill from the disease.

 

[MuirWannabe]

The possibility of becoming infected and passing it on to others who aren't vaccinated?



I've seen no studies showing being vaccinated prevents you from becoming a "carrier" even though you might not become ill from the disease.

Are there studies showing you can be a carrier even after vaccination?

 

[Aerides]

I've seen no studies showing being vaccinated prevents you from becoming a "carrier" even though you might not become ill from the disease.

Are there studies showing you can be a carrier even after vaccination?

I don't know if that level of detail is published publicly yet. More will likely be shared following the FDA review hearings and approvals with each vaccine. There will also likely be a lot of public health guidance blasting the airwaves with vaccine drives and what not.

But it would make sense, that just as you can be asymptomatic and spread it now, you might get a vaccine, fight it off, feel fine, but still maybe spread it for that 24 ish hours while your immune system knocks it down?

 

[REWahoo]

Are there studies showing you can be a carrier even after vaccination?

Not to my knowledge, nor am I aware of studies showing you can't. My point is we just don't know, so expectations that once an individual is vaccinated everything will return to normal may be premature.

 

[MuirWannabe]

I don't know if that level of detail is published publicly yet. More will likely be shared following the FDA review hearings and approvals with each vaccine. There will also likely be a lot of public health guidance blasting the airwaves with vaccine drives and what not.

But it would make sense, that just as you can be asymptomatic and spread it now, you might get a vaccine, fight it off, feel fine, but still maybe spread it for that 24 ish hours while your immune system knocks it down?

I hope what you suggest is correct. Cause that still means life back to normal as soon as I get the vaccine. Well, maybe 24 hours after....

I’m excited about it. An effective, safe, and available vaccine was always the only real solution to this pandemic. The powers that be have focused on the right things it appears.

 

[MichaelB]

Not to my knowledge, nor are there any studies showing you can't. My point is we just don't know, so expectations that once vaccinated everything will return to normal may be premature.

+1

ER Forum members tend to hope for the best but plan for the worst, and I think this is how we should approach 2021.

 

[CardsFan]

I’m guessing second half of 2021 at the earliest. It’s going to take quite a while before we reach “critical mass” with vaccinations, and from what I read there are MANY people who aren’t planning on getting the vaccine at present - I’ve seen as high as 40% won’t. I assume many/most of them will change their minds, but only after the earlier adopters show clear benefits. Sadly a lot more people will die before the end is in site...

I have seen the same numbers, but really don't believe them. I live in area populated by the folks that news likes to make fun of. Not one person I know has said they will not get the vaccine.

Time will tell.

 

[Lewis Clark]

The reports I have seen suggest the vaccines nearing approval are about 95 effective. So they are less than 100% effective, probably just like every other vaccine. This implies we are not fully protected just because we have been vaccinated.

But I think most folks will be eager to return to their former normal behaviors once they have been vaccinated.

 

[RobbieB]

I see a really big splurge coming! Huge spending spree like nothing before. Like the baby boom after WW2.

All that pent up desire suddenly unleashed -

 

[Midpack]

Don't ask me where at this point, but couple of days ago I read that there will enough vaccines, multiple sources, to vaccinate everyone in US by June. So how long after that will those that want it get it? I'd guess August.

I take it you assume the other 7.5 billion people in the world won’t get vaccines, only the 0.331 billion Americans? The US is about 4.3% of the world population...

 

[Aerides]

But it would make sense, that just as you can be asymptomatic and spread it now, you might get a vaccine, fight it off, feel fine, but still maybe spread it for that 24 ish hours while your immune system knocks it down?

I hope what you suggest is correct. Cause that still means life back to normal as soon as I get the vaccine. Well, maybe 24 hours after....

Sorry if I wasn't clear, if you were vaccinated, then exposed and then briefly a carrier for a day or 2 or 3 or whatever, you wouldn't know. So, for the near term we should all assume we're potential carriers, even if vaccinated. (or until the data says we're good).

And any vaccine is going to have at least a 2 week period after the shot before your own defenses are ready.

But the question is more about when does everything go back to normal. And that will be when the R0 rates fall well below 1, when spread grinds to a halt.

 

[W2R]

I don't want to be a wet blanket, but even after a vaccine is distributed I am not at all confident that things will ever return to normal.

People have been terrified of this virus for months and for many, it will be harder to switch off that terror than it would be to just turn off a lightbulb. They'll find out that it is not 100% effective, or that the virus has mutated, or who knows what.

Another factor is that many/most small businesses will have gone under or will be on weak financial footing. And as for larger businesses, people are used to working at home and will balk at the idea of going in to an office to work. So, no more business districts in cities, no more commuting. People will just email their work into megacorps, wherever they may decide to be. Cities will become empty ruins, and rural areas will be flooded with city folk. None of this is consistent with returning to normal (IMO).

OK, maybe this is a worst case scenario, or a really, really bad dream! But I just don't see us reversing course back to where we were before the pandemic, any time soon. I sure hope I am wrong.