How quickly back to normal?

[MuirWannabe]

Well, I’m planning to reverse course to pre-pandemic, post vaccine. In fact, I can’t wait!
Easy enough to change plans to something less desirable should negative nilly thoughts prevail. There’s really no planning involved. Maybe stock up on more TP? No thanks. I’ll be optimistic for now.

 

[cathy63]

I just listened to this podcast yesterday: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/938375308

It's Fresh Air, Terry Gross interviewing Dr. Peter Hotez of Texas Children's Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.

Some of the points he made that I found interesting:
- "Over the weekend, Moncef Slaoui, who heads Operation Warp Speed, felt that we could reach herd immunity, meaning 70% of the U.S. population, through vaccines by as early as the spring. I think that's a bit aspirational."

- "You know, it's not going to be a light switch. It's going to be an evolving process. We will be in a much better place by the spring, and then by the summer, we'll even be in a better place. And by the - a year from now, life - I don't know that we'll entirely return to normal, but it's going to be much better than it is now."

- "So some of the vaccines in clinical trials prevented death, prevented virus infection in the lungs, but some of the nonhuman primates and other animals tested still could shed a lot of virus in their upper airway and mouth. So there still could be a fair bit of virus circulating, and that means there could be still some need for masks and social distancing and contact tracing."

One thing the conversation made me realize is that while life might return to "normal" in the U.S. and Europe sometime next year, that doesn't necessarily apply worldwide. Lower income countries need to be able to make and distribute low cost vaccines to their citizens before we can all travel freely again.

 

[JDARNELL]

I don't want to be a wet blanket, but even after a vaccine is distributed I am not at all confident that things will ever return to normal.



People have been terrified of this virus for months and for many, it will be harder to switch off that terror than it would be to just turn off a lightbulb. They'll find out that it is not 100% effective, or that the virus has mutated, or who knows what.



Another factor is that many/most small businesses will have gone under or will be on weak financial footing. And as for larger businesses, people are used to working at home and will balk at the idea of going in to an office to work. So, no more business districts in cities, no more commuting. People will just email their work into megacorps, wherever they may decide to be. Cities will become empty ruins, and rural areas will be flooded with city folk. None of this is consistent with returning to normal (IMO).



OK, maybe this is a worst case scenario, or a really, really bad dream! But I just don't see us reversing course back to where we were before the pandemic, any time soon. I sure hope I am wrong.

I think in a lot of ways you are correct. Just think about the career civil servant who is hanging on to retire and will not want to go back in the office. I can only imagine the conversations with the unions. While on the other side the new employees that want to get in the office so they can learn something and move thru their intern programs.

At this point I do not intend to get the vaccine. I may change my mind over time but I need to see a few months of how people react to the vaccine. Maybe I’ll get luck and everyone else
Will get it.

As for getting back to normal we do everything we can with the occasional nuisance of having to put on a mask to make people around us feel better. If it gets to annoying I don’t participate. For example I am ready to begin traveling again but don’t want the hassle of all the extra hoopla around the travel event or being in a place where everything is shut down because of this event. I respect everyone’s views on the issue and to each his own.

There has been such an inconsistent message about the entire Rona thing that it’s hard not to suspect everyone having different motives. I’ll set this out for now til more ground truth is known.

 

[NYEXPAT]

One thing the conversation made me realize is that while life might return to "normal" in the U.S. and Europe sometime next year, that doesn't necessarily apply worldwide. Lower income countries need to be able to make and distribute low cost vaccines to their citizens before we can all travel freely again.

Here in Peru for example, we participated in the two Chinese vaccine studies as well as the J&J study. A condition of those studies is they must provide us with the vaccine if/when approved. This is the same for many countries as there are over 100 vaccines bieng developed around the world.

 

[RobbieB]

I'm not planning to rush anything. I'll get the shot when Kaiser tells me it's time. I'll wait whatever the "effective delay" is and then I'm not gonna worry anymore.

I'm a little tired and weary of all this worry and all these masks. I'm going to take an airplane ride and party with my friends back in Michigan. I'm gonna belly up at the sushi bar and see if I can eat a hundred bucks. I'm gonna hug people in the street!

And if I die I die. I'd rather live large and die early than live long behind closed doors.

 

[RAE]

Dr. Fauci said today that the U.S. could reach herd immunity (or at least get close to herd immunity) by sometime next summer, assuming the vaccine will be widely available later this winter. He didn't say what his assumption was regarding the percentage of people that actually get the vaccine. The estimates I've seen are that maybe only 60-65% of people will get it, so maybe that is what he is assuming also(?).

 

[JoeWras]

I hope what you suggest is correct. Cause that still means life back to normal as soon as I get the vaccine. Well, maybe 24 hours after....

I’m excited about it. An effective, safe, and available vaccine was always the only real solution to this pandemic. The powers that be have focused on the right things it appears.

Hang on there. It takes a few weeks for your immune system to build up against the virus. More than 24 hours. A few weeks to a month or so. Just another little factor drawing out the timeline.

 

[Ronstar]

Are there studies showing you can be a carrier even after vaccination?

I can’t remember where I read it, but I read that the vaccine only prevents a person from getting sick from the virus once they are infected. The vaccine does not prevent a person from being infected by, or spreading the virus.

ETA - here’s an article that claims that the vaccine will not provide sterilizing immunity, but rather prevent those infected by Covid to develop pneumonia.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22...es-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/

 

[Montecfo]

The reports I have seen suggest the vaccines nearing approval are about 95 effective. So they are less than 100% effective, probably just like every other vaccine. This implies we are not fully protected just because we have been vaccinated.

But I think most folks will be eager to return to their former normal behaviors once they have been vaccinated.

Well, I think the measles vaccine is 95 percent effective also. No one need worry too much about the 5 percent due to here immunity.

And, if you think about it, once vaccinated the herd is less important to you, since you are largely not relying on it (though you can benefit).

 

[MuirWannabe]

Hang on there. It takes a few weeks for your immune system to build up against the virus. More than 24 hours. A few weeks to a month or so. Just another little factor drawing out the timeline.

Yes, I believe Aerides also made this point. It’s a good one. I’ll wait the prescribed time. But not a minute longer [emoji4]

 

[NYEXPAT]

Hang on there. It takes a few weeks for your immune system to build up against the virus. More than 24 hours. A few weeks to a month or so. Just another little factor drawing out the timeline.

The vaccine is two doses 3-4 weeks apart, the first dose does not do much.

 

[Montecfo]

I think we will begin returning to normal by late spring. Here is why:

Vaccines widely available, critical mass of vaccinated people growing:
-vaccinated people are going to want to get out and go to restaurants and travel
-HH income actually rose during the pandemic but spending declined. So lots of discretionary funds
-if you are vaccinated, the fact that everyone is NOT vaccinated becomes less important

Some people will not want to vaccinate, including some older folks, anti-vaxxers and the youngs (who see less benefit).
-travel and entertainment venues will drive this by requiring vaccinations.
-use of masks will.be more common everywhere than it was before, but not like now

Some things will not return to normal but to a "new normal" where things are somewhat different
-flight to suburbs and rural
-work from home
-use of credit cards and digital payments permanently made more pervasive
-video conferencing for business and personal use
- food/grocery/meal delivery and delivery of goods in general more common
-drug approval processes have been been streamlined as Operation Warp Speed has proven it need not take 5-10 years to develop a vaccine. Same reality should affect other FDA approval processes.

K12 education will go back to in person (where the science has pretty much always led)

Secondary education could in some cases remain more "virtual" than before as those students can learn remotely and there are cost advantages. Time ripe for disruptive high quality virtual secondary education to become more mainstream.

Probably a few others given time to think.

Probably takes until mid-2022 for things to be totally back.

 

[Aerides]

Politico sends a nightly email - they covered this topic "The End of the Beginning" last night. Does not appear to link back to any one article, so I'll recap the best snips of a much longer piece:

January: The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines each require two doses, taken three or four weeks apart...so the first batch of health care workers won’t be fully vaccinated until early next year.

February: Vaccine supplies still limited. The CDC recommended today that long-term care residents should be prioritized along with health care workers.

March: States are charged with distributing still-limited supplies...Those over the age of 65 are expected to be at the top of the list.

May: ...most adult Americans could get a Covid vaccine by this month. States should have worked out distribution problems by now, though there are risks that a rollout could be botched. (see Polio)

June, July and August: We should start to learn how well vaccines work to not just keep people from getting Covid, but also whether they keep people from spreading Covid.

October: Happy Halloween? Goldman Sachs analysts are predicting that vaccinations will be available to kids by next October.

So, 4Q mostly back to normal if EVERYTHING goes as planned. People in high-risk groups might still wear masks or avoid crowded gatherings.

(if anyone finds a direct article link add it to the thread and I'll add it to the post)

 

[Dtail]

I am thinking and hoping by 2022 that things return to near normal.
In parts of FLA, there are already some areas acting as if it over already, as FLA reports 10k cases today.
Luckily by us, there is still fairly close to 100% mask compliance indoors and still see many folks outside with masks.
Again the patterns of which areas act in certain ways is not hard to predict at all.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

I largely agree with your list, but want to clarify something:

Secondary education could in some cases remain more "virtual" than before as those students can learn remotely and there are cost advantages. Time ripe for disruptive high quality virtual secondary education to become more mainstream.

Did you really mean "secondary" (i.e., high school) or did you mean post-secondary (i.e., college/university)? The reason I ask is that I don't know much about what happened to HS during the pandemic, and would like to know more. (If you meant college, well, that is a reality I am living!)

 

[Montecfo]

I largely agree with your list, but want to clarify something:



Did you really mean "secondary" (i.e., high school) or did you mean post-secondary (i.e., college/university)? The reason I ask is that I don't know much about what happened to HS during the pandemic, and would like to know more. (If you meant college, well, that is a reality I am living!)

Akk, thanks for that. I did mean post-secondary.

Any other thoughts welcome.

 

[Popeye]

So I am watching the much delayed football game and thinking about this. Normal is a little different for everyone. Some folks only need a couple of items to feel normal enough. One of those thing for many is football. I expect the 2021 season, both college and professional, to open with full stadiums.

I wonder about the summer concert season. It’s always a popular time for touring artists. Dare they start opening shows for summer? Maybe only outdoor venues?

Of personal interest will be the effects on golf courses. Demand exploded this year as courses were packed. I think all the work from home people were actually out golfing! Lol! It will be interesting to see if the demand remains as high. My old boss is president at his country club and was wondering if the bonanza will continue. He saw a huge jump in new members, which was needed.

 

[mountainsoft]

No Rush for Pre-Pandemic Life?

We have been fortunate that the pandemic has not affected us financially, and no one in our immediate family has been infected so far. Of course, I feel for those that have lost their jobs, closed their businesses, gotten sick, or lost loved ones from COVID. As far as those aspects go, I want the pandemic to end as soon as possible. On the other hand, there are many aspects of life I am in no hurry to return to.

I have enjoyed my wife working from home. We see each other more, mornings are less stressful, etc. It has given us a glimpse of what retirement might be like in a few years, and we like it.

I like that most folks dress and act more casual now. My wife hasn't worn dress clothes to work for almost a year, and half the people at the grocery store show up in pajama bottoms.

I have not missed family reunions, birthday parties, or other social gatherings. I never enjoy attending those and it has been a refreshing breather not to have those obligations.

Bad son award... I have enjoyed not having to take my mom grocery shopping. I still pick up groceries for her, but I can make the trip out and back in an hour, compared to 3-4 hours when I have to pick her up and take her.

I like not having to drive so much. We spend half as much on gas and don't have the stress of the daily drive.

I don't even mind wearing a mask. During the colder months I've actually enjoyed having something to keep my face warm.

About the only things I miss from the "old world" are going out for dinner or a movie with my wife. I also miss being able to travel freely.

I honestly don't expect big changes till the end of the year at the earliest, but I'm not looking forward to many of the obligations and responsibilities of "normal" life.

 

[Alan]

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