Lots of good news today

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flyingaway said:
I have a question about the testing and reporting. If a person is tested several times, will this person be included in the reporting several times.

For example, a person is tested positive is likely to get more several tests later until is tested negative, will this person be reported in several tests as (maybe different) positive persons? thus counted several times?
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I think that varies by jurisdiction. I know here in Virginia they count tests, not individuals tested, having made that change in May. Of course it overcounts the cases.
 
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I'm pretty sure I read that my state (Oklahoma) counts people - not tests.
 
flyingaway said:
I have a question about the testing and reporting. If a person is tested several times, will this person be included in the reporting several times.

For example, a person is tested positive is likely to get more several tests later until is tested negative, will this person be reported in several tests as (maybe different) positive persons? thus counted several times?
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Tests is one metric, cases is another.

It's important that we're reporting apples to apples nationwide, but we're not as there's no national standard and strategy for testing or reporting. And there have been reports of errors in both directions everywhere. Both for positive and negative tests.

This is one of those things that i imagine evens out in the wash. But of course those that want to downplay things will say "aha the case counts are probably doubled and wrong!" or those that want to see doom and gloom say "oh no the real positive rate is being held down by the double-negatives!" (and both camps will be wrong).
 
RobbieB said:
As long as the covid stays with us unlike the SARS and the MERS, there will be a ton of dough for both treatment and prevention.

Lots of dough has always been a strong motivator. And with streamlined FDA procedures I'm thinking it's going to be faster rather than slower.
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There was lots of dough in play for the Shingrix shot. Did you see what they were charging for that?? Remember how hard it was to get a dose? That went on for many months.

Aerides said:
...But of course those that want to downplay things will say "aha the case counts are probably doubled and wrong!" ...
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They're already saying that. People will cherry-pick that one "fact" which supports their preferred reality. Especially if they heard it from their favorite shock jock on the radio, TV or internet. Confirmation bias is SO much easier than learning facts and nuance.
 
I dunno. I got my shingles shot when I was 60 just like I was supposed to. Didn't cost me a dime. 100% covered preventive.

Now I'm 65 and guess what, I got my pneumonia shot, free of charge, preventive.
 
I'm happy that many of the national retailers are requiring masks.
 
Aerides said:
Tests is one metric, cases is another.

It's important that we're reporting apples to apples nationwide, but we're not as there's no national standard and strategy for testing or reporting. And there have been reports of errors in both directions everywhere. Both for positive and negative tests.

This is one of those things that i imagine evens out in the wash. But of course those that want to downplay things will say "aha the case counts are probably doubled and wrong!" or those that want to see doom and gloom say "oh no the real positive rate is being held down by the double-negatives!" (and both camps will be wrong).
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Maybe counting death is more informative. A person can only die once.
 
RobbieB said:
I dunno. I got my shingles shot when I was 60 just like I was supposed to. Didn't cost me a dime. 100% covered preventive.

Now I'm 65 and guess what, I got my pneumonia shot, free of charge, preventive.
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Robbie if you got a shingles shot 5 years ago you would have gotten the old kind of shot that was only about 50% effective. There is now a new Shingles shot (actually you get 2 doses) called Shingrix that is 95% effective. You need to get the new shot even if you had the old shot. The new shot is expensive and Medicare covers only a portion of the cost but the shot is worth it. You don't want to get Shingles, I had them at age 50 and it was the worst disease I have ever had, now almost 20 years later I still have pain from Shingles. Ask your doctor about the new Shingrix shot or read up on it here on the Forum, there are several threads.
 
RobbieB said:
I dunno. I got my shingles shot when I was 60 just like I was supposed to. Didn't cost me a dime. 100% covered preventive.

I actually asked if you saw what they were charging, not what you paid.

Obviously your insurance company paid a negotiated rate. For those who insurance didn't cover, it was pretty steep. My insurance paid the first one, but by the time I found a place that had the second one in stock, I had to pay out-of-network rates. If I had no insurance coverage it would have been even more, I think in the $150 range for each of the two shots.

My point is, there was money being made on Shingrix, but even so, there were massive shortages. Presumably the same will occur if/when there's a COVID shot.
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flyingaway said:
Maybe counting death is more informative. A person can only die once.
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Right. Case numbers are almost meaningless, and even the ratio of positive tests depends on which populations are being tested. Around here they make it difficult to even get tested unless you have reason to believe you're infected, so of course the ratio will be higher than if you took a random sample of the population.

The death rate, and especially the excess death rate, are pretty solid numbers. There are anecdotes about cause of death being listed as COVID when it was primarily other factors, and vice-versa. I suspect those tend to cancel each other out.

The excess death rate; that is, the number of people who died over time, in excess of the expected "normal" death rate going back x number of years for that time, is a better number. From what I've seen, it tends to confirm the COVID death rate statistics.

Historians will decide. I suspect neither side, the deniers nor the doom-sayers, will turn out to be correct. It'll be a high number, and it will be deemed to have been largely preventable, had it not been for our self-destructive partisan bickering.
 
CaptTom said:
The death rate, and especially the excess death rate, are pretty solid numbers. There are anecdotes about cause of death being listed as COVID when it was primarily other factors, and vice-versa. I suspect those tend to cancel each other out.
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I think the important metric is the one that communities and individuals can react to, and take precautions to reduce the death rate in the first place. After all, to varying degrees, we are participants and not just outside observers here.

So, yeah, for me personally, cases and positivity are good numbers to see what the weather is probably like now, and maybe decide if I want to drive in the rain or wait.

If cases are low, great, if they are surging, not great. Looking at deaths is kinda like waiting till after the hurricane actually hits to decide if I should close my shutters.
 
Back on topic, retail sales (excluding gasoline) have basically recovered through June.


EdDIrX0WsAIZisn


From Bespoke Investment Group
https://twitter.com/x/status/1283746555401572354
 
explanade said:
One thing which might be of interest to people here, the data is for people 18-55 years old. They did have older people injected but that data will come out later.

There were some side effects observed, chills, muscle and headaches, fatigue among over 50% of those vaccinated. Then among those who received a second vaccination as part of a middle dose, 40% had fever.
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Yikes! I can't imagine having to accept these side effects in order to achieve immunity. I hope there are better options once the final vaccine is approved for mass innoculation.

Also saw an interview with Dr. Zeke Emanual this AM. He envisions that the roll out of mass vaccinations would first inoculate front line medical workers, then other first responders, then essential workers, working on down the line until the least at risk receive the vaccine. It also may involve a 2 shot regimine which would lengthen the process. He envisioned the process as taking many months once the process begins. He implied achieving the end goal of inoculating 250 million Americans would take 6-9 months in a best case scenario.
 
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Golden sunsets said:
Yikes! I can't imagine having to accept these side effects in order to achieve immunity. I hope there are better options once the final vaccine is approved for mass innoculation.

Also saw an interview with Dr. Zeke Emmanual this AM. He envisions that the roll out of mass vaccinations would first inoculate front line medical workers, then other first responders, then essential workers, working on down the line until the least at risk receive the vaccine. It also may involve a 2 shot regimine which would lengthen the process. He envisioned the process as taking many months once the process begins. He implied achieving the end goal of inoculating 250 million Americans would take 6-9 months in a best case scenario.
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But isn't this similar to the side effects for the Shingles shot--most people have some side effects to that shot, sore arm, fever, aches, fatigue etc. Yet many of us were lined up and on waiting lists to get the Shingrix shot because Shingles is so awful. We drove 3 hours to a place that had the Shingrix shot a couple of years ago. I can forsee something like the Shingrix shortages for a Covid-19 vaccine. First the health care workers will get it, then those with medical conditions and those over 80, then those over 65. You will have to get on a list and wait, just like the Shingrix shot.
 
Clone said:
.... I sometimes wonder if humanity is just too stupid to survive this.
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I've often thought that it is starkly showing that the lack of self-discipline in the US compared to the rest of the world is not helpful in managing a contagion.
 
harllee said:
But isn't this similar to the side effects for the Shingles shot--most people have some side effects to that shot, sore arm, fever, aches, fatigue etc. Yet many of us were lined up and on waiting lists to get the Shingrix shot because Shingles is so awful. We drove 3 hours to a place that had the Shingrix shot a couple of years ago. I can forsee something like the Shingrix shortages for a Covid-19 vaccine. First the health care workers will get it, then those with medical conditions and those over 80, then those over 65. You will have to get on a list and wait, just like the Shingrix shot.
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A couple of the 45 participants of the phase I trial were on TV last night. One of them had to go to the ER due to high fever, etc. He was one of the high dosage people. It sounds like side effects are common. These 45 were younger and healthy. The next phase will have some older people in it. We'll see how they react to the vaccine. I think Phase 2 will only use the medium dose - not the high dose.
 
pb4uski said:
I've often thought that it is starkly showing that the lack of self-discipline in the US compared to the rest of the world is not helpful in managing a contagion.
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+1
Our governor issued a state wide public place indoor mask order effective today. Now individual sheriff departments are saying they won't enforce it.

Who knew we wanted to keep the spread going? I'm amazed at the continued denial of science.
 
MRG said:
+1
Our governor issued a state wide public place indoor mask order effective today. Now individual sheriff departments are saying they won't enforce it.

Who knew we wanted to keep the spread going? I'm amazed at the continued denial of science.
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Our city passed an ordinance requiring masks but watered down the penalty so much that a lot of people will ignore it. Our Governor won't issue a state-wide order. He also likes to site total hospital beds instead of ICU beds so it sounds like we're a lot better off than we really are. ICU bed in my city are getting close to being full, but according to the Gov' we'd have to have 7 times as many cases as we do now to be a problem.

Oh, and this is the Governor that contracted the virus. "Just a little tickle".
 
Come for good news, get politics instead. Sigh.
 
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