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Spreads so easily......
Old 10-16-2020, 03:32 PM   #1
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Spreads so easily......

I still find the super spreader scenarios fascinating. More case studies come out regularly although they often occur months ago. It just doesn't take much gathering for spreading to easily occur. This recently published case of a June ice amateur hockey event spreads from one person, a day before they experience Covid symptoms, directly to 15 others - 14 out of 22 on both teams plus one ice rink staff member.

Good reminder to avoid deep breathing exercise in enclosed spaces with other people.

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...ed-hockey-game
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Old 10-16-2020, 10:36 PM   #2
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Or yodeling...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/switze...ovid-hot-spots
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Old 10-16-2020, 11:21 PM   #3
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It’s really scary. I found out yesterday that one of my tennis instructors is out with COVID. I had to count the days since I last saw him. It has been just under two weeks, but I only saw him from a distance at that time. I haven’t been on the court with him in more than two weeks, so I think I would have had it by now if I did get infected. Still, it creeps me out to know that I’m walking around in an area where someone might be breathing out the virus and transmitting it to others.
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Old 10-17-2020, 05:06 AM   #4
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Yodeling indoors no less.....
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Old 10-17-2020, 12:23 PM   #5
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On the other hand I'm baffled by how some don't catch it.
My friend lives with his oldest son in a small apartment. The kid caught it at a party on a Wednesday or Thursday. My friend had all 3 boys over on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday the oldest started showing symptoms and got tested. No one else tested positive. Even though they were on top of each other for 2 days and my friend was quarantined with the sick kid for two weeks.
Another mind bender is how it went through a naval ship and only a quarter of the sailors caught it. How did three quarters of them not?
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Old 10-17-2020, 01:00 PM   #6
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It’s really scary. I found out yesterday that one of my tennis instructors is out with COVID. I had to count the days since I last saw him. It has been just under two weeks, but I only saw him from a distance at that time. I haven’t been on the court with him in more than two weeks, so I think I would have had it by now if I did get infected. Still, it creeps me out to know that I’m walking around in an area where someone might be breathing out the virus and transmitting it to others.



I know how it feels when our town just made the black list in the state.


Lots of familiy gatherings and no masks in sight
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Old 10-18-2020, 12:50 AM   #7
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On the other hand I'm baffled by how some don't catch it.
My friend lives with his oldest son in a small apartment. The kid caught it at a party on a Wednesday or Thursday. My friend had all 3 boys over on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday the oldest started showing symptoms and got tested. No one else tested positive. Even though they were on top of each other for 2 days and my friend was quarantined with the sick kid for two weeks.
Another mind bender is how it went through a naval ship and only a quarter of the sailors caught it. How did three quarters of them not?
My money is on the theory that previous exposure to common cold coronaviruses affords some people protection. I'm hoping that's true, anyway. As a pediatrician for 23 years I've been exposed to more than my fair share of coronaviruses. Here's hoping all that snot exposure will pay off, especially as the rural hospital I work at is seeing a rapid uptick in COVID cases.

From the NIH article linked below:

“We have now proven that, in some people, pre-existing T cell memory against common cold coronaviruses can cross-recognize SARS-CoV-2, down to the exact molecular structures,” Weiskopf says. “This could help explain why some people show milder symptoms of disease while others get severely sick.”


https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-...ize-sars-cov-2
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Old 10-18-2020, 01:10 AM   #8
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I survived the pandemic of '56/'57. I was in 5th grade and recall looking around the room noticing 1/3 to 1/2 the class was out. In those days (in dose days) we took no precautions - never washed our hands - until mom scolded me to wash up for supper. There was no thought of canceling school. No one ever heard of masks except on 'doctor shows' on TV. It was as if some of us were immune for some reason.

Same thing happened in '68/69. I was finishing Sr. year at university. I was struggling, failing a class in my major and spending 30 hours a week in a lab just to survive. I was falling into a deep depression. I wasn't eating. I wasn't sleeping. No one took precautions, social distanced or wore masks - or even used the fume hoods. It seemed everyone was sick and then the lab was empty except for a few of us who didn't get sick.

If I'm making a point, it would be that there seemed to be some of us (me included) that were just immune. By the way, I do not believe nor do I act as if believe I'm immune to Covid. I wonder if there are folks like that now who, even if exposed simply do not get sick. Where does such an immunity come from? Since my mom survived the Spanish flu, I wonder if that could be transmitted all those years later.

I agree that Covid must spread easily. But it seems to skip some people. IF we could ever figure out how some folks are just immune, maybe it would be instructive in dealing with the pandemic. Okay, I'm done speculating and reminiscing. Now returning you to our regularly scheduled discussion since YMMV.
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Old 10-18-2020, 03:30 AM   #9
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I think super contagious nature of this thing ultimately points to the futility of the current approaches. They simply don't scale and certainly aren't sustainable.

We're close to seeing very large corporations buckle. I saw a stat on CNBC that the major airlines will blow through $77B of cash in the second half of the year. I live outside London and the public transit authority (Tube/buses) is 2 weeks from running out of money as ridership is down something like 65%. Its sad when a bunch of restaurants go out of business, but they can easily be reconstituted oftentimes by the same people who owned them originally. When major infrastructure operators are in trouble, its a different story.

This isn't a "don't wear masks" rant or anything of the sort. Just a reflection that we're only in the early innings of society dealing with this and lots of options remain on the table, with very large investing implications.

And, as if to highlight the point on futility, it was pointed out this morning that the rules now in effect in much of the UK make it illegal for long-term couples who don't live together to have sex because they have to visit one another. Once again, I'm left to wonder if some of the policy makers have ever met humans. This is right up there with the idea that we're going to socially distance 7 year olds.

Good luck with that!
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Old 10-18-2020, 03:56 AM   #10
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And, as if to highlight the point on futility, it was pointed out this morning that the rules now in effect in much of the UK make it illegal for long-term couples who don't live together to have sex because they have to visit one another.
Not true unless the long term couple have decided not to form a "household bubble".

Ever since the full lockdown ended some months ago any household can invite any other person that lives alone to be part of their household bubble and they then can follow the rules for any household. For example our son is part of our bubble. Even the strictest lockdown rules, Tier 3, still allow household bubbles. We formed a bubble with our son and were round his house for dinner on Friday night, and this morning met him for breakfast at one of the cafes in town, as we do most Sundays.
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Old 10-18-2020, 05:17 AM   #11
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On the other hand I'm baffled by how some don't catch it. ... Another mind bender is how it went through a naval ship and only a quarter of the sailors caught it. How did three quarters of them not?
When I was making deployments on submarines, at least one crew member always had some type of cold or virus when we left port on day 1. It would spread around the crew very quickly for a week or two. No social or any other type of distancing on a submarine! Then everyone would be healthy until the end of the deployment. Sort of an enforced bubble.

Many crew members would catch the bug, but many would not. Don't know how it works but some lucky folks seem to have stronger immune systems than others.
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Old 10-18-2020, 07:06 AM   #12
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It seems like there are some people who have the "ability" to spread the virus to multiple people in a short period of time. When this person is at a large event, the inevitable happens.
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Old 10-18-2020, 08:04 AM   #13
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I agree that Covid must spread easily. But it seems to skip some people. IF we could ever figure out how some folks are just immune, maybe it would be instructive in dealing with the pandemic.
Some folks developed immunity due to prior exposure to other viruses apparently. This has been identified in some of the studies. It is a hopeful development on several fronts.
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Old 10-18-2020, 09:53 AM   #14
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Many studies are underway mapping the genome of folks that have had Covid. Here are just a few of these studies.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-020-0567-3

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Several large-scale genomic studies are gearing up to pin down the genes underlying individual responses to COVID-19. Genomics England is partnering with Illumina and the UK National Health Service (NHS) to sequence the genomes of 35,000 patients: 15,000 with mild symptoms and 20,000 who required intensive care. A separate group, UK BioBank, is assembling research materials from data on patients with COVID-19 collected by Public Health England, which they will share with 15,000 approved researchers from 85 countries. Finally, nearly 1,000 human geneticists formed the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative, organized by the Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland.
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:13 AM   #15
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I still find the super spreader scenarios fascinating. More case studies come out regularly although they often occur months ago. It just doesn't take much gathering for spreading to easily occur. This recently published case of a June ice amateur hockey event spreads from one person, a day before they experience Covid symptoms, directly to 15 others - 14 out of 22 on both teams plus one ice rink staff member.
Ice rinks are a special problem for Covid and other respiratory issues. Because they need to keep the ice cold, there is far less air circulation just above the ice than in the rest of the arena such as where the fans sit. Thus, infectious agents can build up to dangerous levels more easily.

This was first discovered in the days of gasoline powered Zamboni machines. Players were getting sick when taking the floor after the Zamboni had smoothed out the ice. An investigation showed that they were breathing in the lingering fumes from the Zamboni! Today's Zamboni machines are mostly electrically powered so they no longer present a problem. Who knew that ventilation at an ice rink could be so complicated.

I also understand that researchers have now decided that they need to study those people who spend a lot of time around infected people but don't get sick. It may be they have some enhanced ability to fight the virus. Or it may be that the sick people are not very vigorous spreaders of the virus.
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:24 AM   #16
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No social or any other type of distancing on a submarine! Then everyone would be healthy until the end of the deployment. Sort of an enforced bubble. (emph. added)
I'd say a submarine is literally a bubble! (And I am not using the word "literally" to mean "figuratively" ) Maybe a "reinforced bubble" instead of an "enforced bubble."
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:39 AM   #17
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I thought was going to be about margarines and cheeses.
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Old 10-18-2020, 04:39 PM   #18
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Not true unless the long term couple have decided not to form a "household bubble".
I suspect there are going to be quite a few people who will have to have sex with their spouse instead, unless said spouse is amenable to opening the household bubble to the third party.
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Old 10-18-2020, 07:06 PM   #19
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I'd say a submarine is literally a bubble! (And I am not using the word "literally" to mean "figuratively" ) Maybe a "reinforced bubble" instead of an "enforced bubble."
And not at all the reason we were known as bubbleheads.
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Old 10-19-2020, 01:07 AM   #20
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As I understand, the virus since Feb has mutated into more contagious one. As this pandemic continues on, I hope it does not mutate into even worse virus. I also hope the vaccines in development work for the most variations of the virus.
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