Spreads so easily......

[audreyh1]

I should clarify that we have seen DD, but we have always worn masks until this time. She and DSIL have worked from home since March, but she was out on a job site 4 days earlier. She was masked the entire time, but she was in an area where the workers were not masked, and she has since learned that there have been some positive cases there.

Bummer!

 

[Time2]

On the other hand I'm baffled by how some don't catch it.
My friend lives with his oldest son in a small apartment. The kid caught it at a party on a Wednesday or Thursday. My friend had all 3 boys over on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday the oldest started showing symptoms and got tested. No one else tested positive. Even though they were on top of each other for 2 days and my friend was quarantined with the sick kid for two weeks.
Another mind bender is how it went through a naval ship and only a quarter of the sailors caught it. How did three quarters of them not?

My son-In-law had it and my daughter sharing the small apartment didn't get it. She's a healthy young woman, but does seem to get the common cold more often than I'd like. She now gets all garbed up to work on dental patients in dental school. I thought for a while the whole class would miss a year, but they got back into the clinic.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

This incident is enough to keep me from flying for a while yet. From the WaPo.

Texas Woman Dies From COVID-19 While on Flight from Arizona

A woman in her 30s died of the coronavirus while on a plane that was about to leave Arizona for Texas, health officials said.

The woman, identified only as a resident of the Dallas suburb of Garland, began struggling while waiting for takeoff, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins told NBC Dallas-Fort Worth.

“It became difficult for her to breathe, and they tried to give her oxygen,” he said. “It was unsuccessful. She died on the jetway.”

The death occurred July 25 but was included in Monday’s Dallas County coronavirus case counts because officials were recently informed of the official cause of death. The woman had underlying health conditions, according to a news release from the county.

 

[Christine]

DH had a very mild case. DD was sicker and had some breathing problems, but recovered quickly. I have no idea if it made a difference, but both of them are blood type O.

Interesting. I have some anecdotal info about blood type O people recovering quickly. Would be really interesting to know the blood type of the super spreaders. If it matters.

 

[Gumby]

From what I've read, while there are people more prone to spread the virus (heavy viral load, loud talkers, guffawing laughers, etc), the term "Super Spreader" is more appropriately tied to events (many people, usually indoors, poor air circulation, lots of talking, laughing or singing, no social distancing, direct physical contact such as hugging and hand shaking, no mask wearing, etc.)

 

[Doribe]

I should clarify that we have seen DD, but we have always worn masks until this time. She and DSIL have worked from home since March, but she was out on a job site 4 days earlier. She was masked the entire time, but she was in an area where the workers were not masked, and she has since learned that there have been some positive cases there.

Thanks for posting the backstory details. I'm always interested in how this may have spread.

 

[audreyh1]

From what I've read, while there are people more prone to spread the virus (heavy viral load, loud talkers, guffawing laughers, etc), the term "Super Spreader" is more appropriately tied to events (many people, usually indoors, poor air circulation, lots of talking, laughing or singing, no social distancing, direct physical contact such as hugging and hand shaking, no mask wearing, etc.)

Doesn’t even have to be indoors if social distancing and masks are ignored and people make lots of physical contact!

 

[Brat]

I still find the super spreader scenarios fascinating. More case studies come out regularly although they often occur months ago. It just doesn't take much gathering for spreading to easily occur. This recently published case of a June ice amateur hockey event spreads from one person, a day before they experience Covid symptoms, directly to 15 others - 14 out of 22 on both teams plus one ice rink staff member.

Good reminder to avoid deep breathing exercise in enclosed spaces with other people.

https://www.latimes.com/science/sto...-trounces-both-teams-in-ill-fated-hockey-game

I read that ice rinks are uniquely vulnerable. The physics of air as it circulates over ice is different than any other open environment. As I recall the ice rink staff member drove the Zamboni.

 

[Koolau]

I'm weird. I've never had the flu or flu vaccine. I was on a cruise where it seems like 1/2 the ship got Noro but I was fine. I'd gotten a really bad cold years ago that lasted about a day. Think it was early 70s? Now and then I get really tired and sleep a day, but that's it.

Wanna sell some plasma?

Oh, and do you recall a TV show ca. 1969 called THE IMMORTAL? A guy has factors in his blood that makes him virtually immortal. Transfusions of his blood temporarily heal a dying old multimillionaire. Naturally, The Immortal has to hide from the old millionaire.

You might want to keep your "immunity" under wraps.

 

[JoeWras]

I read that ice rinks are uniquely vulnerable. The physics of air as it circulates over ice is different than any other open environment. As I recall the ice rink staff member drove the Zamboni.

DW and I have decided to take up the offer by the city and go swimming. It is an indoor enclosure, true olympic sized pool (50 meters). There are about 20 usable lanes in the short course configuration going width-wise. They take all precautions. You have to sign up, confirm you are not sick, get temperature taken, etc. One lane per customer. Masks when not swimming. Leave immediately. And so on.

What I don't know is how well the circulation is working. They converted this pool to those "sock type" air ducts. You never feel a breeze, which is good when swimming, but I wonder what the air changeover is?

I think the one thing we have going for us is the water is warmer than the air, so there should be vertical circulation. This is the opposite of an ice rink, which values pooling near the surface.

 

[audreyh1]

I’ve read several articles recently that attribute much of the large US Midwest outbreak to the Sturgis rally. The problem is that little contact tracing was done because attendees crossed state lines and returned home. Even cases where they reported that they caught it from the rally aren’t attributed to the Sturgis outbreak numbers. Even on large wedding outbreak where a Sturgis attendee infected others isn’t included in the numbers. There simply hasn’t been an effort to track and measure it because it was an interstate event.

 

[Rocket Man]

I would not put much stock in those articles. Doubtful there is much fact backing their opinions.

 

[Rianne]

How the Virus Spreads Outside in Cold Weather

I assume much research has to be done in cold weather since things seemed to calm down in warmer weather. I'm outside everyday for a couple of hours walking, even in cold weather. I enjoy the winter outdoors. I keep a healthy distance from everyone but now it seems the virus "floats" or lives longer in cold weather. Walking through someone's breath or cough has concerned me. But in warm weather it seemed to dissipate. Something to keep in mind even outdoors in the winter around a fire or heater for social gatherings.



"Nolt: “It’s poorly understood what happens once a virus is extruded out off a person after coughing or sneezing. What we’re thinking, though, is the virus has somewhat adapted — that as it gets out into a harsher environment such as a cold or dry environment, it needs to figure out how it can get to the next person. So in a cold and dry environment, the surroundings of the virus get a little lighter. It’s able to travel further, and so we feel that the virus has adapted to a cold, dry environment and therefore can travel further. The inverse being: if it’s hot and humid, the virus could just as easily drop immediately to the ground after it comes out of a person.”


https://www.opb.org/article/2020/08/04/coronavirus-covid-19-weather-spread-science/

 

[tmm99]

There was a huge spread at a spin studio in Hamilton, Ontario, (48 primary cases out of the studio and now the total spread has increased to 80 people. The place was owned by a doctor and a nurse and were following all the health guidelines (at least 6ft apart, cleaning, etc)).

What I don't understand is that the health dept tells us to wear a mask indoors and try to keep 6ft distance, but they're OK with people exercising vigorously (which caused people to breathe much harder) indoors 6ft apart with no mask on...

 

[tmm99]

I’ve read several articles recently that attribute much of the large US Midwest outbreak to the Sturgis rally. The problem is that little contact tracing was done because attendees crossed state lines and returned home. Even cases where they reported that they caught it from the rally aren’t attributed to the Sturgis outbreak numbers. Even on large wedding outbreak where a Sturgis attendee infected others isn’t included in the numbers. There simply hasn’t been an effort to track and measure it because it was an interstate event.

Without much tracing done, we'll never know how the Sturgis rally spread, but I'm certain it went everywhere the infected attendees returned to! The spread out of the spin studio I mentioned has been carefully tracked, and it's already spread to secondary households (15), schools and childcare (8), healthcare facilities (6) and other workplaces like restaurants, gyms and retail (22).

 

[JoeWras]

Articles based on conjecture are not research. Sturgis is an easy target for cultural reasons. Balance would include similar articles about meetings at rallies and mob actions.

 

[Gumby]

I would not put much stock in those articles. Doubtful there is much fact backing their opinions.

Articles based on conjecture are not research. Sturgis is an easy target for cultural reasons. Balance would include similar articles about meetings at rallies and mob actions.

Do you guys have any evidence to the contrary? Or are you just naysaying for the hell of it?

 

[audreyh1]

I didn’t have the links handy at the time, but here are a link to an article plus a summary of the article from Popular Science . IMO the timing is very suspicious. Folks can decide for themselves.

How the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally may have spread coronavirus across the Upper Midwest

As of mid-September, 330 cases and one death were directly linked to the rally, but these numbers are likely extremely deflated due to the fact that South Dakota health authorities did not carry out contact tracing for people at the rally, particularly those who traveled long distances from neighboring states to attend. In fact, South Dakota had imposed no restrictions or limitations on gatherings at all, which is why this event—the largest public gathering in the United States since the beginning of the pandemic—was permitted.

At this point, it’s impossible to tell exactly how many outbreaks occurred as a result of the Sturgis rally; all we know is that beginning a few weeks after the event, South Dakota and its neighboring states saw steep increases in coronavirus case numbers, and that those trends have continued. Many cases that were likely related to Sturgis were not counted as such, including a cluster at a wedding where the original spreader had attended the rally.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/17/sturgis-rally-spread/

 

[JoeWras]

Do you guys have any evidence to the contrary? Or are you just naysaying for the hell of it?

Read the quote in the post above:
- may have spread
- numbers are likely

This is the conjecture.

And if the media is going to discuss this event, I'd like to see discussion on other outdoor events that draw from large regions, like opinion rallies.

I'm not part of that culture, but I'm tired of seeing those folks piled on. A few years ago we accidentally visited SD on the last night of the event. The next morning at the Hampton Inn breakfast, we felt a bit out of place. But it was fun and interesting to talk to everyone.

 

[Koolau]

Do you guys have any evidence to the contrary? Or are you just naysaying for the hell of it?

It's rarely possible to prove a negative - especially when there is little evidence for the positive.

I don't have a dog in the hunt as I leave the apartment once or twice a week and do not attend gatherings. I don't even have a bike That said, simply suggesting that the SD event was 'probably' the source of a large spread IMO puts the onus for proof on those suggesting it - not on those who doubt the assertion. YMMV

 

[Gumby]

Read the quote in the post above:
- may have spread
- numbers are likely

This is the conjecture.

And if the media is going to discuss this event, I'd like to see discussion on other outdoor events that draw from large regions, like opinion rallies.

I'm not part of that culture, but I'm tired of seeing those folks piled on. A few years ago we accidentally visited SD on the last night of the event. The next morning at the Hampton Inn breakfast, we felt a bit out of place. But it was fun and interesting to talk to everyone.

The problem is that you and Rocket Man both dismissed the article before even reading it, because Audrey had not yet provided either the quote or the cite at the time you posted. She just said she had read several articles. It would have been fair to ask her for a cite (which she later gave of her own accord) and then point out the inadequacies in the article, but instantly dismissing her initial post is not the way to foster a good discussion.

 

[audreyh1]

From the main article:

Within weeks of the gathering that drew nearly half a million bikers, the Dakotas, along with Wyoming, Minnesota and Montana, were leading the nation in new coronavirus infections per capita.

It’s a fact that these states have large and still growing outbreak with a timeline that aligns with the Sturgis rally. Wisconsin is currently leading the nation in new infections per capita (i.e. the worst outbreak in the country right now) so I’m surprised they aren't also listed above.

 

[JDARNELL]

Sturgis is the lightning rod for people that have never been because of all those darn bikers. I get a kick of what people think The rally really is without never experiencing the event. And with it being the first large event after the shutdown people pile on with the Rona. Whatever.

The rally was a great time just like always. It always amazes me how people from different walks of life get together and enjoy.

 

[Gumby]

Sturgis is the lightning rod for people that have never been because of all those darn bikers. I get a kick of what people think The rally really is without never experiencing the event. And with it being the first large event after the shutdown people pile on with the Rona. Whatever.

The rally was a great time just like always. It always amazes me how people from different walks of life get together and enjoy.

The question is not whether the rally was fun, whether bikers are good people or whether people who have not been can properly envision it. The question is whether the event contributed to the spread of COVID in the surrounding states. I don't know the answer to that, and I don't know if anyone ever will. But I sure do know the question.

 

[JDARNELL]

The question is not whether the rally was fun, whether bikers are good people or whether people who have not been can properly envision it. The question is whether the event contributed to the spread of COVID in the surrounding states. I don't know the answer to that, and I don't know if anyone ever will. But I sure do know the question.

I suspect no more than other gathering. Kind of like how many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop. The world may never know.