This just reported: 900,000 dead: Covid deaths are surging in low-vaccination states

[Alan]

[See the quoted post for the attachment, those don't seem to carry forward with a quote.]

IMO, that's the best overall statistic (and not w/o its problems as well). I just feel there is too big a problem with the way COVID related numbers are being generated. And while I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I can see where some of this does feed the conspiracy theorists (and they may not be entirely wrong).

Exhibit A:



As an example, I tested positive for COVID a few weeks back (a mild case fortunately, and I am double vaxxed, waiting on my booster since I've gained some immunity from this). So if I died in a car accident yesterday (writing this post from the hereafter- Hi y'all!), my death would be labeled as "within 90 days of a positive".

Hospital admissions are also a bit wacky, you could go in for a twisted ankle, test positive for COVID, and get labelled as such. But being asymptomatic, you never would have gone to the hospital otherwise (as would be the case with a normal, mild flu).

So the "within 90 days of a positive test" is close to the "excess deaths", but that still is questionable. Now, I don't know, but I've heard that suicide rates are up due to depression from isolation, and there may be other health related issues (but you'd think less travel would mean fewer deaths from those causes).

I can't come to any conclusion, but I pretty much do not trust many of the numbers, and especially the media spin on it. It's just more complicated than this.

-ERD50

Analysts have looked at accidental deaths within 90 days of a Covid positive positive test and the numbers are minuscule.

There are many more that died in hospitals after 91 days following a positive result that will have had Covid on their death certificate because it might have been a contributing factor.

 

[ERD50]

....

Gumby's interesting numbers don't address the comment I answered that was, how many admitted with Covid and how many admitted for Covid? ...

And that is exactly my problem with the numbers reported, how many admitted with Covid and how many admitted for Covid?

My case was mild, I would not (and did not) seek treatment for it, and I've had far worse colds/flu that I did not seek treatment for. But I'm in a database, as I got tested because of an upcoming gathering.

I'm not trying to minimize the COVID situation, I'm just saying the numbers are hard to compare, as they are being generated differently. To state that more clearly, the numbers for colds/flu would be much higher if a lot of people were being tested for them, and tested at every medical visit, rather than counting only those who sought out medical treatment for those colds/flu.

Maybe that doesn't materially change the numbers for COVID, but I think it is worth questioning.

-ERD50

 

[Gumby]

And what exactly would that information tell you? I'd be willing to bet that with respect to the "admitted for Covid" and "admitted with Covid" groups, the percentages of each who were vaccinated/unvaccinated, who wore masks/didn't wear them, and/or who socially isolated/mingled freely are probably roughly equal. As far as I can tell, the people who are mostly interested in this statistic are those who are interested in arguing that Covid is no big deal, so we can drop all the precautions.

Maybe that's not you, but you know it is the goal of some people.

 

[RobbieB]

The telling evidence is the rise in deaths over the last 2 years.

Gee, I wonder what changed in the last 2 years?

 

[ERD50]

And what exactly would that information tell you? I'd be willing to bet that with respect to the "admitted for Covid" and "admitted with Covid" groups, the percentages of each who were vaccinated/unvaccinated, who wore masks/didn't wear them, and/or who socially isolated/mingled freely are probably roughly equal. ...

You may be correct, but w/o the data, we really don't know.

But it's not about vax/unvax (at least for what I'm questioning). If the admitted "with" versus admitted "for" distorts the numbers, that's fuel for the conspiracy crowd, and those on the fence might say "hey, they have a point there". And regardless, we shouldn't be distorting numbers, no one is served by that, it breeds distrust.

... As far as I can tell, the people who are mostly interested in this statistic are those who are interested in arguing that Covid is no big deal, so we can drop all the precautions.

Maybe that's not you, but you know it is the goal of some people.

There's no question that some people who question (though I think "attack" would be a better description for that) the data have an agenda. I've seen a lot of that on some other sites.

But we have to be careful. There seems to be a trend (in general, not directed to you or this forum) of taking meaningful skepticism (and almost all numbers/statistics should be met with a level of skepticism) and lumping that with anyone spreading FUD on a subject. It's form of "cancel culture".

And that it is the goal of some people.

-ERD50

 

[Gumby]

Is there a meaningful difference between 900k dead of Covid and 800k dead "of" Covid + 100k dead "with" Covid? I say it's a distinction without a difference.

 

[RobbieB]

Yeah. H'mmm I wonder what caused all those extra deaths?

 

[ivinsfan]

NSW: Hospitalisation and ICU admission – relative risk for vaccinated versus unvaccinated people (.pdf)

Unvaccinated against fully vaccinated people:

Risk of ICU admission: 37 - 70 times
Risk of hospitalisation: 18 - 47 times

This data set is 3 months is so pre omicron ....basically out of date.



AS I mentioned the stats in my area almost evenly divided between vaxxed and unvaxxed in the hospital.... and we have a 67% vaccination rate.

 

[COcheesehead]

I am 3x vaccinated. Work in a public facing job at a local winery. Worked side by side with two folks later determined to have Covid. Likely stood face to face with others infected. To date nothing. Today, I am perplexed as to how I have not caught it.
I have talked to medical professionals who bring up other factors like diabetes, being elderly, a person of color, being obese, etc. Someday clarity may come.

 

[Gumby]

This data set is 3 months is so pre omicron ....basically out of date.



AS I mentioned the stats in my area almost evenly divided between vaxxed and unvaxxed in the hospital.... and we have a 67% vaccination rate.

And, as I showed earlier, that means that that the risk of hospitalization for unvaccinated is approximately 2 times that of vaccinated.

 

[ivinsfan]

And, as I showed earlier, that means that that the risk of hospitalization for unvaccinated is approximately 2 times that of vaccinated.

These numbers are very current so would include the omicron wave we are going through now. Omicron seems to be causing more breakthrough cases even though the total number of cases locally is dropping.



AFAIK our state doesn't break it down to boosted cases.

 

[NW-Bound]

I did not bother to check the statistics in AZ until now. Here's what I just found.

According to Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS), as of Dec 2021, an unvaccinated person has

4.1x the risk of testing positive for Covid
24.4x the risk of hospitalization from Covid
57.9x the risk of dying from Covid

I also found out that while the vaccination rate of AZ is 60%, among those 65+ the rate is 96.2%. The geezers know how to take care of themselves, heh heh heh.

The vaccination rate drops progressively with younger age groups. Among those younger than 20, the vaccination rate is only 33%. I guess they feel invincible and immortal.

 

[Samsung4321]

This data set is 3 months is so pre omicron ....basically out of date.

Rather - not up to date. If later report exists, my quick search missed it.

Omicron is more infectious but less virulent:

'Ten per cent of people in their 70s who caught the virus from November 26 to January 1 were hospitalised, compared to 40 per cent from June 16 to November 25. For people in their 80s, the hospitalisation rate was 27 per cent, down from 54 per cent.'

'the unvaccinated continue to make up half of intensive care admissions'

Omicron cases less likely to enter hospital, but numbers cause strain

NSW 16+ vaccinated: first 95.5%, second 94.1%, third 42.6%.

 

[HF63]

The other casualty that might come later on, is how many of those health care workers will just leave or seek other job options. My wife's niece a nurse at a local hospital is already looking at other job possibilities and tells my wife she is not the only one.

 

[Montecfo]

I also found out that while the vaccination rate of AZ is 60%, among those 65+ the rate is 96.2%. The geezers know how to take care of themselves, heh heh heh.

The vaccination rate drops progressively with younger age groups. Among those younger than 20, the vaccination rate is only 33%. I guess they feel invincible and immortal.

I would say this parallels the different risk levels of each age group. Youngs may feel they have little risk and they are correct.

 

[pacergal]

^^
And many under 20 must rely on parents to give permission (depending on the State, age of consent for vaccines may be approx 14-18)

 

[ejman]

This data set is 3 months is so pre omicron ....basically out of date.



AS I mentioned the stats in my area almost evenly divided between vaxxed and unvaxxed in the hospital.... and we have a 67% vaccination rate.

In my county (SW Oregon) according to the local newspaper 82% of hospitalized patients with Covid are unvaccinated. This county has a vaccination rate as of the end of January of 67%. I don't know about your area but I would conclude that for my county vaccination works in reducing the number of hospitalized folks.

 

[JDARNELL]

I did not bother to check the statistics in AZ until now. Here's what I just found.

According to Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS), as of Dec 2021, an unvaccinated person has

4.1x the risk of testing positive for Covid
24.4x the risk of hospitalization from Covid
57.9x the risk of dying from Covid

I wonder what in actual percentage change the increase is really? For example is it 4.1X with a base of .001%. Also I wonder how age plays in this? Is 57.9x increase go from .001% to .0579%. (disclaimer public math for me is hard but you get the idea)

 

[ivinsfan]

In my county (SW Oregon) according to the local newspaper 82% of hospitalized patients with Covid are unvaccinated. This county has a vaccination rate as of the end of January of 67%. I don't know about your area but I would conclude that for my county vaccination works in reducing the number of hospitalized folks.

Interesting that our health group is showing updated numbers every Monday. Our area was in the 80/20 or 70/30 consistently until the last 2 weeks. I'm not sure what is causing the number change

 

[Bigdawg]

Just thinking out loud here: All assumptions on my part. I read awhile ago that a person who died from COVID had an average of 2.3 comorbidities. The most common comorbiditiy is obesity. I also believe that people who have comorbities because of their own actions (smoking, obesity, etc...) are less likely to be proactive with their healthcare. My assumption is that prevalence of a self induced comorbidity equals greater chance that a person isn't vaccinated. My assumption is that the comorbidity averages among vaccinated are lower than the comorbidity averages of the unvaccinated. I assume that if you don't care about your health (obese, smoker, etc...) you are less likely to run out and get vaccinated. I also assume that the breakthrough cases are more prevalent with someone who has comorbities. I would guess that if 2 people who were of the same age and sex were to be vaccinated, the one with less comorbities would have a better chance against COVID. I am sure we all know or have heard about otherwise healthy younger folks who were fully vaccinated who then got COVID. With that being said, I do believe that no matter your overall health satus you should get fully vaccinated. When COVID is behind us I hope that society then directs their efforts towards the other health concerns that face our world. Most notably heart desease and stroke (both associatd with obesity).

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

I wonder what in actual percentage change the increase is really? For example is it 4.1X with a base of .001%. Also I wonder how age plays in this? Is 57.9x increase go from .001% to .0579%. (disclaimer public math for me is hard but you get the idea)

Since about 0.3% of all people in the country have already DIED of Covid, I think it is fair to say that the baseline risk of dying if infected is not 0.058%!

 

[frayne]

Just thinking out loud here: All assumptions on my part. I read awhile ago that a person who died from COVID had an average of 2.3 comorbidities. The most common comorbiditiy is obesity. I also believe that people who have comorbities because of their own actions (smoking, obesity, etc...) are less likely to be proactive with their healthcare. My assumption is that prevalence of a self induced comorbidity equals greater chance that a person isn't vaccinated. My assumption is that the comorbidity averages among vaccinated are lower than the comorbidity averages of the unvaccinated. I assume that if you don't care about your health (obese, smoker, etc...) you are less likely to run out and get vaccinated. I also assume that the breakthrough cases are more prevalent with someone who has comorbities. I would guess that if 2 people who were of the same age and sex were to be vaccinated, the one with less comorbities would have a better chance against COVID. I am sure we all know or have heard about otherwise healthy younger folks who were fully vaccinated who then got COVID. With that being said, I do believe that no matter your overall health satus you should get fully vaccinated. When COVID is behind us I hope that society then directs their efforts towards the other health concerns that face our world. Most notably heart desease and stroke (both associatd with obesity).

+1, it's called common sense. No doubt there are exceptions to the rule but your baseline assumptions are spot on.

 

[NW-Bound]

I wonder what in actual percentage change the increase is really? For example is it 4.1X with a base of .001%. Also I wonder how age plays in this? Is 57.9x increase go from .001% to .0579%. (disclaimer public math for me is hard but you get the idea)

A very valid point, although I don't think the actual numbers are that low.

To really know how virulent Covid is, you have to swab the virus onto the nostril or throat of healthy subjects, then watch to see how many get sick, and how many die. Only the Nazis would do that.

You see, the risk of getting sick and dying depends on the chance of contracting the virus in the 1st place. If you are not vaccinated, but circulate among the fully vaccinated people or people who wear mask, you get some "freebie" protection.

Is it the same as a civilian saying that nobody needs to be a soldier and to go to war, because he himself has never been a soldier, yet still unharmed from a rogue enemy country?

 

[JDARNELL]

+1, it's called common sense. No doubt there are exceptions to the rule but your baseline assumptions are spot on.

I would think that more unhealthy people would be vaccinated than healthy people because they have underlying conditions. But as I say that I could also see some people that never do anything for their health not getting vaccinated.

In my circle I would say it’s probably 50 50. I don’t really know as it’s not a big topic of discussion who is and who isn’t.

 

[Dtail]

I would think that more unhealthy people would be vaccinated than healthy people because they have underlying conditions. But as I say that I could also see some people that never do anything for their health not getting vaccinated.

In my circle I would say it’s probably 50 50. I don’t really know as it’s not a big topic of discussion who is and who isn’t.

Probably true to some extent.
However with just about all our friends, I was able to predict who would get vaccinated and who would not and the health condition was not really a factor.
Leave it at that.