Updates on COVID 19

[Car-Guy]

We aren't having any festivals. Mardi Gras is cancelled for next year, AFAIK. We can't have anything with live music or entertainment. Apparently they figure it's impossible to enforce social distancing if there is music, dance, or other entertainment going on. I suppose that is probably true.

I'm surprised they haven't re-closed the casinos in Louisiana, but of course that's serious money and lots of jobs for LA. Once they re-opened, I made a few trips back in June and once in early July. (Shreveport area) They are requiring (or asking) everyone to wear a mask now, but it was optional in many casinos back in June... Really it's still optional since they don't say anything to you once you are past the security check point in most casinos. And forget the 50% capacity rule.... I've seen crowds well in excess of 50%. It's so bad that I haven't been back in a ~month now and probably won't go back until we have a vaccine or this thing dies out. So CV19 has probably already saved me a lot of money (~100k) in the past 6 months. Although as a die hard gambler, I also consider/wonder if I may have won that much in the past 6 months too.

 

[audreyh1]

Florida made it over 500,000 today, and OMG Georgia crossed 200,000!

 

[Dtail]

Florida made it over 500,000 today, and OMG Georgia crossed 200,000!

Georgia appears to be edging up now. Can't wait for their school results.

 

[Koolau]

We aren't having any festivals. Mardi Gras is cancelled for next year, AFAIK. We can't have anything with live music or entertainment. Apparently they figure it's impossible to enforce social distancing if there is music, dance, or other entertainment going on. I suppose that is probably true.

I'm guessing it's the alcohol that seems to lessen social distancing and mask-wearing, etc. Our state has closed the bars again for 3 weeks.

We are literally dying as a state because we depend upon tourism, yet there IS no tourism now. Our Covid numbers have recently taken off, yet our numbers would be enviable to most states (population 1.4 million - 2500 total Covid cases, 100 new each day of late, 27 total deaths.)

Unless the various vaccines are successful, I'm afraid this whole mess will end very badly. I feel relatively comfortable that I can protect myself for the most part. But the state may never recover.

I've mentioned before that my mother (as a child) lived through the 1918 flu pandemic (got double pneumonia, lost family, friends, etc.) It was the defining event of her life (much more so than the great depression 11 years later.)

 

[audreyh1]

Georgia appears to be edging up now. Can't wait for their school results.

I’m not looking forward to it.

 

[frugal-one]

Well that is great news. I don’t know what’s happening in the RGV. Last I heard they were building a field hospital in McAllen.

We put a down payment for winter 2020/spring 2021 to stay at a mobile home park in Weslaco. There is no way we will be going. I wish everyone well..

 

[truenorth418]

Why the focus on “cases”? A case today in August does not mean the same thing as a case back in March. Test kits were hard to come by in March. Most suspected Covid infections were told to go home and quarantine- without getting a test. Today test kits are far more available. Virtually anyone who wants to take a test can get one. The case numbers today, for all the caveats, are far more representative today than in March.

“Cases” has its purpose, but making comparisons across time frames is highly misleading.

Want to make a fair comparison? Let me know when any other state comes
close to the number of deaths so far in either NJ or NY.

 

[Ronstar]

Why the focus on “cases”? A case today in August does not mean the same thing as a case back in March. Test kits were hard to come by in March. Most suspected Covid infections were told to go home and quarantine- without getting a test. Today test kits are far more available. Virtually anyone who wants to take a test can get one. The case numbers today, for all the caveats, are far more representative today than in March.

“Cases” has its purpose, but making comparisons across time frames is highly misleading.

Want to make a fair comparison? Let me know when any other state comes
close to the number of deaths so far in either NJ or NY.

Exactly. Analyzing anything by numbers of cases is ludicrous. Much more testing now than before. Some people being tested multiple times. Some tests have suspect results. Some places can't accurately count the number of cases that they have.

 

[brewer12345]

Why the focus on “cases”? A case today in August does not mean the same thing as a case back in March. Test kits were hard to come by in March. Most suspected Covid infections were told to go home and quarantine- without getting a test. Today test kits are far more available. Virtually anyone who wants to take a test can get one. The case numbers today, for all the caveats, are far more representative today than in March.

“Cases” has its purpose, but making comparisons across time frames is highly misleading.

Want to make a fair comparison? Let me know when any other state comes
close to the number of deaths so far in either NJ or NY.

I thought that dead horse rotted away months ago...

 

[Aerides]

Cases is just one metric. It's important for me at least to gauge how my county is doing, and my local risk level.

Do I compare it to March/April? No, we had no idea what was really going on then, clearly.

Do I compare August to July, to June? Yes.

This is a tired debate and let's move on.

 

[audreyh1]

Absolutely! Cases, hospitalizations, hospital utilization, deaths, are all relevant, especially at the local level, and as areas continue to decide what restrictions are necessary and how to handle new challenges like reopening schools.

 

[MRG]

Absolutely! Cases, hospitalizations, hospital utilization, deaths, are all relevant, especially at the local level, and as areas continue to decide what restrictions are necessary and how to handle new challenges like reopening schools.

+1

I'm looking at our current case counts, comparing them to a few short weeks ago is truly alarming.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, end of June to end of July is such a huge leap in many states that it is alarming. We can only hope it will at least stabilize in some areas. But we won’t really know for a while.

 

[brewer12345]

+1

I'm looking at our current case counts, comparing them to a few short weeks ago is truly alarming.

You ain't seen nothing yet. Reopening schools and then the weather turns cold and people crowd inside.

Dang am I glad that my winter recreation is outdoors where I expect it to be cold.

 

[W2R]

Interesting! If I plot the daily number of new cases, Louisiana has a distinct second wave that looks pretty awful. It is even worse than our first wave when we were a "hot spot".

But after reading this thread, I wondered if that was even meaningful. Just now I found out that if I create a time series of

(number of cases)/(number tested)

in Louisiana from our first case on 3/9 clear through until yesterday, that just completely obliterates our second wave. Everything is nicely smoothed out. I'm not saying this is a valid metric either, but it sure looks cool. (graph attached)

EDIT: I just posted this because it looks cool. In reality, it is probably meaningless; we should remember what Truenorth418 said above,

A case today in August does not mean the same thing as a case back in March. Test kits were hard to come by in March. Most suspected Covid infections were told to go home and quarantine- without getting a test. Today test kits are far more available.

Back in March they were probably just testing those who were already very sick, and thus more likely to have COVID-19 than the general population.

 

[audreyh1]

(number of cases)/(number tested)

in Louisiana, that just completely obliterates our second wave. Everything is nicely smoothed out. I'm not saying this is a valid metric either, but it sure looks cool. (graph attached)

That’s called the positivity rate. It looks like it’s just under 10%?

According to this it’s around 7.5%, not as bad as several other states in major outbreaks.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/louisiana

Daily cases and deaths can be viewed graphically here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/louisiana-coronavirus-cases.html

 

[W2R]

You ain't seen nothing yet. Reopening schools and then the weather turns cold and people crowd inside.

Dang am I glad that my winter recreation is outdoors where I expect it to be cold.

Think about all the colds and flu that people get when school starts! I'm not saying COVID-19 is the flu or a cold, but it's contagious and probably will increase in a similar way with all those kiddies swapping germs every day.

We don't spend much time outdoors, but we spend more time at home than most people. I don't think we have been near a crowd of people since the pandemic began, except of course at the grocery store. Social distancing and masks are required there, but I still feel a bit edgy when going to the grocery store (which I have only done twice thus far).

 

[W2R]

That’s called the positivity rate. It looks like it’s just under 10%?

According to this it’s around 7.5%, not as bad as several other states in major outbreaks.

Nope! It's NOT. Not even one data point was that low.

Daily cases and deaths can be viewed graphically here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/louisiana-coronavirus-cases.html

I prefer not to use sites like that. I download the daily cases and deaths from the Louisiana Department of Public Health, so my data is the actual data, and isn't smoothed/leveled off like the source you suggested. Then I correct (increase) the daily tests by adding the extra tests reported at https://covidtracking.com/data#LA since that seems to be the accepted number most places. Then if I want anything smoothed, I can do a 7 day running mean myself. I prefer to do the smoothing/processing myself, so that I know exactly what was done to the raw data. Old habit from back in the day.

Speaking of the raw data, even that is not comparable from state to state IMO. Also, at least at the beginning, and perhaps still, the numbers of cases here did not imply that each case had one and only one test. So I think we are talking about apples and oranges. That is my pet peeve (and should probably be in the pet peeve thread): there is no standardization of these numbers and what Louisiana reports may be an entirely different quantity than what other states are reporting. Comparing any of these statistics between states is a fool's errand (just a colloquial expression, not meant to be a value judgment).

 

[audreyh1]

Ohio Governor DeWine tested positive for Covid-19. He was tested before a planned meeting with the President. Other politicians have found themselves to be infected because they had to be tested before being with Trump. DeWine is the second state governor to test positive.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ike-dewine-tests-positive-for-the-coronavirus

 

[audreyh1]

Speaking of the raw data, even that is not comparable from state to state IMO. Also, at least at the beginning, and perhaps still, the numbers of cases here did not imply that each case had one and only one test. So I think we are talking about apples and oranges. That is my pet peeve (and should probably be in the pet peeve thread): there is no standardization of these numbers and what Louisiana reports may be an entirely different quantity than what other states are reporting. Comparing any of these statistics between states is a fool's errand (just a colloquial expression, not meant to be a value judgment).

I think it’s close enough for useful comparisons, even if rough, and even more important, the trends within states which can also be compared. There are lots of different statistics to look at.

 

[Chuckanut]

Think about all the colds and flu that people get when school starts! I'm not saying COVID-19 is the flu or a cold, but it's contagious and probably will increase in a similar way with all those kiddies swapping germs every day.

We don't spend much time outdoors, but we spend more time at home than most people. I don't think we have been near a crowd of people since the pandemic began, except of course at the grocery store. Social distancing and masks are required there, but I still feel a bit edgy when going to the grocery store (which I have only done twice thus far).

The flu season may not be as bad as some think. Down in the Southern Hemisphere where it is currently Winter, the flu season has been rather weak. It seems that the same stuff we do to prevent the spread of CV also prevents the spread of the common cold and the flu.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/07/24/coronavirus-restrictions

According to Luhnow and Uribe, Chile has recorded 1,134 seasonal respiratory infections so far this year, compared with 20,949 such infections during over the same time period last year. And in the first two weeks of July, which typically is the height of flu season in the Southern Hemisphere, Chile reported no new cases of the flu.


Claudia Cortés, a doctor in Chile, said although physicians "keep checking for the other viruses … all we're seeing is [Covid-19]." She added, "We were surprised by the decline in the other viruses like influenza. We never dreamed it would practically disappear."


Similarly, in Brazil, even though the country has seen a large number of coronavirus-related deaths, officials reported 2,085 hospitalized flu patients in week 27 of the country's flu season, which is down significantly from the 3,445 hospitalized flu patients the country reported during the same week last year.

Below is behind a paywall:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...he-flu-in-the-southern-hemisphere-11595440682

From Argentina to South Africa to New Zealand, countries in the Southern Hemisphere are reporting far lower numbers of influenza and other seasonal respiratory viral infections this year. In some countries, the flu seems to have all but disappeared, a surprise silver lining that health experts attribute to measures to corral the coronavirus, like mask use and restrictions on air travel.

 

[timo2]

Unfortunately I think this is one of the easiest ways this virus spreads - people travel from all over the country, spend a few days together, return home just in time to be contagious and spread it back home. If they self-isolated upon return home that would prevent spread from their trip. How many will do that?

This chart floated across my screen the other day.

 

[audreyh1]

This chart floated across my screen the other day.

Yeah, it’s a good chart. I posted that with a link to the article in the Super-spreader Situations thread.

 

[timo2]

Yeah, it’s a good chart. I posted that with a link to the article in the Super-spreader Situations thread.

thanks for posting that!!

 

[W2R]

It seems that the same stuff we do to prevent the spread of CV also prevents the spread of the common cold and the flu.

I believe it!

We haven't had a cold, flu, or other virus since early March when we started doing this stuff. I feel a little uneasy about that, since we are probably losing any slight immunity we might have to these ailments. I'll bet that if/when life returns to normal, Frank and I will be sick as dogs with various minor viruses, common colds, or flu for a while. We'll probably think (temporarily) that we have CV even when we don't.