Updates on COVID 19

[audreyh1]

I see from worldometers that Georgia has the dubious distinction of passing New Jersey and moving into 5th place total covid infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Dtail]

In about another 2 weeks, Arizona will pass New Jersey too, although they are slowing down.

 

[Badger]

Florida has taken up the challenge for 1st place. We are closing in on California with the number of our crackpots here who appear to want to be #1 in risking their lives and the lives of others during a pandemic. Georgia has a long way to go if they want to catch up.


Cheers!

 

[JoeWras]

The last thread went too far with its name calling and cultural shaming.

Can we keep away from that? Does this constant bickering about us versus them have any benefit here?

I don't know. I'm really getting discouraged.

 

[Car-Guy]

^^^

+1

 

[Andre1969]

One thing I noticed that's interesting, is that while these new states are on track to topple the champs in total cases (and even cases per population), the death rate is much, much lower in these up-and-comers.

I wonder if that's because the virus is mutating, and becoming less deadly? Or is it just because now it's mostly younger, healthier people who are catching it, while the old/sick/vulnerable are taking better precautions? Or, is it simply a function of more widespread testing?

 

[audreyh1]

One thing I noticed that's interesting, is that while these new states are on track to topple the champs in total cases (and even cases per population), the death rate is much, much lower in these up-and-comers.

I wonder if that's because the virus is mutating, and becoming less deadly? Or is it just because now it's mostly younger, healthier people who are catching it, while the old/sick/vulnerable are taking better precautions? Or, is it simply a function of more widespread testing?

During the first month or two, the virus swept through nursing homes and hospitals before people got a serious handle on the vulnerabilities. Far more protections are in place now, although constant vigilance is required. So far fewer elderly and medical personnel and first responders are routinely infected.

 

[donheff]

A new "official Covid thread?" Excellent. I missed the denouement of the last thread, but I second or third the call for restraint.

 

[gattara]

I live in Georgia. I think we could use a dose of shame ... and reality. I could say so much more but will use the restraint that is being called for.

 

[Chuckanut]

I believe the states should be ranked by deaths per 100,000 not total deaths.

That said, let's look at it from a golf point of view - lowest score wins.

 

[GravitySucks]

One thing I noticed that's interesting, is that while these new states are on track to topple the champs in total cases (and even cases per population), the death rate is much, much lower in these up-and-comers.

I wonder if that's because the virus is mutating, and becoming less deadly? Or is it just because now it's mostly younger, healthier people who are catching it, while the old/sick/vulnerable are taking better precautions? Or, is it simply a function of more widespread testing?

I believe it is a less deadly strain than first hit NY, NJ, Italy. I have no proof, and only the one Doctor in Italy I read of who also believes that. It doesn't seem treatments vary from April when there was a cutback on ventilators and the steroids use increased. Hard to believe Texas or Florida are doing much better at keeping seniors isolated than here in the North East. Nursing, food service, maintenance, etc. staff must be still showing up in Nursing homes, all possibly bringing the virus in. Heck, the anecdotal stories of no social distancing or mask use in retirement communities seems the death rate would be near the same if the virus were the same.

 

[audreyh1]

I believe the states should be ranked by deaths per 100,000 not total deaths.

That said, let's look at it from a golf point of view - lowest score wins.

If you click on the worldometers link, you can sort by that column which is deaths per 1M. The top five are: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. But these are states that managed to get past the initial disaster and get their daily cases way, way down and now have very low daily counts compared to other states that are now the epicenter. Although, unfortunately some are starting to see a slight increase. These states also have very, very low daily death counts now.

So I think it’s a different animal now. Huge mistakes were made the first month or two, and many caught unawares. Many of those mistakes have been corrected. Now, 6 months in, its all about mitigation and containment.

 

[Alan]

I believe the states should be ranked by deaths per 100,000 not total deaths.

You can click on any column on the website that Audrey links to and rank them by how you prefer, including deaths/m and cases/m

 

[W2R]

I believe the states should be ranked by deaths per 100,000 not total deaths.

That said, let's look at it from a golf point of view - lowest score wins.

I agree. At the webpage Audreyh1 linked to, you can click on the deaths/million population column header, and it will re-sort by deaths/million so you can get the ranking of states by that metric. Or you can do the same for cases/million. Different states seem to have different ways of categorizing deaths.

TL; DR We lose when it comes to cases/million, and this has been the case much of the time all along except for a brief time when we were between the first and second wave here and other states were just getting their first wave. New Jersey is the loser when it comes to deaths/million.

 

[audreyh1]

I believe it is a less deadly strain than first hit NY, NJ, Italy. I have no proof, and only the one Doctor in Italy I read of who also believes that. It doesn't seem treatments vary from April when there was a cutback on ventilators and the steroids use increased. Hard to believe Texas or Florida are doing much better at keeping seniors isolated than here in the North East. Nursing, food service, maintenance, etc. staff must be still showing up in Nursing homes, all possibly bringing the virus in. Heck, the anecdotal stories of no social distancing or mask use in retirement communities seems the death rate would be near the same if the virus were the same.

Nursing homes in many states have been under strict lockdown and social distancing with outsiders, with staff tested, monitored and wearing PPE. Delivery and maintenance can be handled with minimal exposure to residents. Tough and lonely for the residents, but effective at preventing many outbreaks.

 

[YakGrl]

I believe it is a less deadly strain than first hit NY, NJ, Italy. I have no proof, and only the one Doctor in Italy I read of who also believes that. It doesn't seem treatments vary from April when there was a cutback on ventilators and the steroids use increased. Hard to believe Texas or Florida are doing much better at keeping seniors isolated than here in the North East. Nursing, food service, maintenance, etc. staff must be still showing up in Nursing homes, all possibly bringing the virus in. Heck, the anecdotal stories of no social distancing or mask use in retirement communities seems the death rate would be near the same if the virus were the same.

We are learning and improving practices and treatments as time goes on in this process which I believe is lowering the death rate seen in northeast in March/April.
Here in Florida they have had the senior living facilities on lockdown for several months now, I think it started in April. No visiting and no group activities.
The staff is now being tested every two weeks by rapid tests for exposure. So that has also helped.
I also agree that the most accurate view is deaths per thousand population, as that is the most accurate data though it is a trailing indication. Even that data I don't believe is completely accurate as reporting varies and cause of death reporting is not consistent. Ultimately I think excess death data will be the best reporting we will have.

 

[Chuckanut]

So I think it’s a different animal now. Huge mistakes were made the first month or two, and many caught unawares. Many of those mistakes have been corrected. Now, 6 months in, its all about mitigation and containment.

I tend to agree.

In my county the infection rate is still much higher than our low point. It is higher than is should be if we are to open schools, track the spreaders, etc. But, the death rate is very low compared to the past. Part of this is that nearly 50% of the new cases are in the 20-49 age group. The other reason is that CV no longer sweeps through all the local convalescent homes filled with people who are my age or older. We've learned to deal with that much better than we did four months ago. And, while there is not really a good treatment, the treatment protocols are getting better.

 

[donheff]

This is bad topic with lot of nonsense already stated by some people.

You should just close the thread IMO. It is not going to any good place.

Don't follow it. Problem solved.

 

[Chuckanut]

This is bad topic with lot of nonsense already stated by some people.

You should just close the thread IMO. It does not go to any good place.

FWIW, you can use 'Thread Tools' to ignore this or any other thread. I use it rarely, usually when a very popular thread just tilts me the wrong way.

 

[audreyh1]

This is bad topic with lot of nonsense already stated by some people.

You should just close the thread IMO. It is not going to any good place.

Please ignore this thread.

 

[Amethyst]

It is one of the ways that fear and sadness have of emerging.

Just as we instruct little children "don't cry," (even though crying does give relief from fear and sadness), we must instruct ourselves, "Don't bicker online, and don't name-call cultures, age groups or any other artificial people-boxes."

But we still need relief valves, and they're painfully few.

Can we keep away from that? Does this constant bickering about us versus them have any benefit here?

.

 

[rodi]

As Chuckanut said - I prefer to look at numbers/population. I also have a preference for recent numbers. NY, NJ, CT had high numbers - but have done a better job in slowing the spread. Their numbers, recently, are much better. Compare that to FL, TX, and AZ (and CA unfortunately) and you see these new outbreaks are much worse.

I like the Harvard hotspot map.
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

From that I can see that my populated county (3.3M people in San Diego county) is at level orange, but is adjacent to a level red county that has a much lower population (Imperial county).

My county has 12 cases/100k (rolling 7 day average) vs 22 for statewide.

Edited to add screen capture of the map from the site above.

 

[jim584672]

NY has done amazingly well from the peak we had months ago, especially considering everywhere else is going up. Everyone takes it seriously and are being careful. Things are basically re-opened now.

 

[jim584672]

The latest NY graphs:

 

[Dtail]

During the first month or two, the virus swept through nursing homes and hospitals before people got a serious handle on the vulnerabilities. Far more protections are in place now, although constant vigilance is required. So far fewer elderly and medical personnel and first responders are routinely infected.

+1 plus there appears to be more younger folks getting it in FLA.