Vaccine Trials

[Time2]

Well this is kinda fun/depressing (appears to be outside the paywall).

Enter a few key data points and you'll find out where you'd be in line for a vaccine...

My results (I'm under 55, no conditions or priorities):

Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to Florida, we think you’re behind 17.4 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in Palm Beach County, you’re behind 1.2 million others.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html?smid=tw-share

**ETA: this is a simulator, a guestimator, it is not literal, but a rough expectation by a news source, based on current guidance. Consult your local/state news for specifics if you have any concerns with your placement. As always, IRL YMMV**

I'm 42 out of 105, I'm 65, I need a disease to cut in line!
I tried the Kroger link above, it said access denied, I truncated the link and still couldn't get it to work.

 

[timo2]

A person that wants to get the vaccine early could get a job at a nursing home? Unless you show up and they think you are looking to be a resident? That would be the case with me.

 

[MissMolly]

I'm 42 out of 105, I'm 65, I need a disease to cut in line!
I tried the Kroger link above, it said access denied, I truncated the link and still couldn't get it to work.

Try copy and paste. It works fine for me.

https://www.kroger.com/rx/guest/antibody

 

[sengsational]

.....
10. People between 18 and 65 (not already prioritized).

The young wife and I will be in Group 10 and can expect the vaccine in June at the earliest.

The bad news is that many of us are in the last group. The good news is that the other 9 groups are an order of magnitude smaller in size.

 

[geeky_grrl]

I have risk factors so in theory I could get one at 7. But SO doesn't have risk factors so he wouldn't be until 10.

I'll probably wait until the last group since we won't go do things until we both are vaccinated. I also would feel bad getting the vaccine while it is constrained since I can stay home pretty comfortably indefinitely. I'm retired, SO is working from home through at least next summer, and we can get everything we need delivered to our door. I know most people aren't able to isolate as well as us.

 

[Telly]

using the guesstimator:

118 million ahead of me in US.
10 million ahead of me in TX.
270,000 ahead of me in my county.

Place 41 out of 100 in TX.

Over 65, no conditions I'm aware of, but if they accept crabbiness as a condition, I should move up a ways.

 

[harllee]

DH has an autoimmune disease that will move him up in the line for the vaccine. We are wondering how people will have to prove they have a medical condition that moves them up in line. He was thinking of asking his doctor for a letter.

 

[Time2]

Try copy and paste. It works fine for me.

https://www.kroger.com/rx/guest/antibody

Strange, I did a copy and paste, still, Access Denied.
I'm using Firefox. Just tried Chrome same thing.
Ah, I turned off my VPN and that got me into the website.
My closest Store with the antibody test is in Alabama, 167miles away.

 

[BigNick]

Fair enough. But that 10% of ND residents are + doesn't mean the estimated 6-10X infected are all in ND.

The multiple (number of actual cases per confirmed case) will vary as a function of a number of things, most notably how easy it is to get a test. To take it to an extreme, if there was a smartphone app that told you if you were positive simply by putting your finger on the screen, the multiplier would be close to 1 (assuming that everyone who suspected they might be infected ran that app).

However, from the reports I've seen, it doesn't appear that ND has a testing program that is in some way far ahead of the US as a whole. So with no other evidence, I would expect it to have about the same multiple as the national average. Given that a lot of people are shielding themselves pretty well (e.g., most of the members of this board, from what I can tell!), and again assuming that North Dakotans are not exceptional in some way, I don't see that the multiple can be 10 or 6 or anything that is (geometrically) close to that. It may well have been 10 or more in NYC back in March, when lots of people died without a test or even COVID as the cause of death, but I'm guessing it's in the 2-3 range now.

But... it's fundamentally unknowable, so I guess we all have to pick a range we feel comfortable with, and try and adjust our beliefs as new evidence emerges.

 

[jam12]

No major health issues

except OA and damage from hip replacement...and don't get out much anyway long before Covid, so no testing here, and my way to keep myself healthy is a keeping a strong healthy immune system. Been supplementing for about 30 yrs...Vit C, Vit D, Zinc and Grape Seed Extract.

Oh I see this about "trials", no trials here and no plan to do any vaccine that is eventually approved.....too much is unknown.

 

[Chuckanut]

Today’s WSJ has an article that states several studies of CV outbreaks, one at a camp, the other on a ship show no person who previously had the disease got it again. Most of the rest of the people did get the disease. The timing of these two events tells us the protection lasted at least 6 months. As we get longer into CV we will see how long the protection truly lasts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to...he-right-way-11607097703?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

Since it's behind a paywall here is the relevant quote:

Less discussed but also very encouraging are the results of three new studies appearing to show that infection with the virus creates a high level of immunity to Covid-19. In the first study, examining a large outbreak on a fishing ship, none of the three people with antibodies got sick, while nearly everyone else got infected. In the second, of an outbreak at a summer camp, none of the 16 people with prior antibodies got sick or tested positive, while nearly everyone else did. More recently, a preliminary report from a study of infected health-care workers found that immunity appears strong and seems to last at least six months.

 

[bmcgonig]

I like these two quotes

mRNA vaccines: Sending an email to your immune system enabling you to recognize and defend against a dangerous intruder.

mRNA vaccines: Loading your immune operating system with Malware Protection, to recognize and defend against an intrusive and destructive virus attack.

 

[gerntz]

Saw today that Pfizer has started a study/test of their vaccine with 12-17 year-olds. Moderna is about to start also.

 

[bmcgonig]

Good article talking about the safety of the vaccines. We all hear from some quarters that they have been rushed into development. He explains why this isn't so. Most of the long time periods to develop vaccines are just spent waiting.

https://coronavirus.medium.com/are-the-covid-19-vaccines-safe-3a399a9bd8a0

 

[MissMolly]

For anybody who is interested, I tried the Kroger 15-minute antibody test this weekend. It test for IgG Positive, IgM and IgG Positive and IgM Positive. I was negative for all - so apparently never had Covid - which actually surprised me because I was sick back in March/April with Covid-like symptoms and assumed that is what I had.

 

[bmcgonig]

I really don't think those antibodies last more than 3-6 months. So even if you had it, it would still be negative.

For anybody who is interested, I tried the Kroger 15-minute antibody test this weekend. It test for IgG Positive, IgM and IgG Positive and IgM Positive. I was negative for all - so apparently never had Covid - which actually surprised me because I was sick back in March/April with Covid-like symptoms and assumed that is what I had.

 

[MissMolly]

I really don't think those antibodies last more than 3-6 months. So even if you had it, it would still be negative.

Actually, nobody knows yet. May only be a short period, may be longer. Covid hasn't been around long enough to make that determination.

 

[SecondCor521]

For anybody who is interested, I tried the Kroger 15-minute antibody test this weekend. It test for IgG Positive, IgM and IgG Positive and IgM Positive. I was negative for all - so apparently never had Covid - which actually surprised me because I was sick back in March/April with Covid-like symptoms and assumed that is what I had.

It's weird.

Remember, that even during the height of the first wave in New York when testing was much more limited, the positivity rate was relatively low (under or around 20% IIRC). So a person who was in one of the epicenters of the epidemic, during the height of the epidemic, who thought they were sick only had a 1/5 chance of being infected.

My son was similarly sick in the January/February 2020 timeframe with something weird that the doctors then couldn't figure out. They eventually put him on an array of medicines (like 5 different ones - antibiotic, anti-inflammatory, etc.) and he slowly got better after about four weeks of feeling sick as a dog. It was right after some domestic air travel, but technically "too early" to have been COVID. We could have tested him but haven't yet. :shrug:

 

[bmcgonig]

Actually, nobody knows yet. May only be a short period, may be longer. Covid hasn't been around long enough to make that determination.

They do. They don't know how long immunity lasts because of memory B cells etc, but they have measured the decline in antibodies over time.

 

[explanade]

There's also the belief, not yet proven, that the more severe symptoms you have, the greater levels of antibodies which would be in your system and the longer they would remain.

 

[sengsational]

They do. They don't know how long immunity lasts because of memory B cells etc, but they have measured the decline in antibodies over time.

There's a confusing concept that I've seen people not fully grocking concerning immunoglobulin testing versus having developed immunity against a virus.

As I understand it, IgM and IgG will both go up quickly when you have active disease, then both come down (IgM sooner). I'm not sure what threshold the IgG test uses, but I do think there's a range, below which the test would not register, you still have "sleeping" trained B cells that would wake up an kick the virus' ass, if need be. So you could be exposed, and not even know it if your B cells have been trained.

As to greater symptoms leading to better response later, I'm not sure I buy-into that one completely. With children, they have such kick-ass innate immunity that they don't exercise the two branches of the adaptive immune system as much. The key for immunity is to make sure that you've made B cells for the virus, and, if sleeping, will wake up quickly. The problem with this disease, I think (warning, he's doing it again), the symptoms are coming from the damage done (all the cytotoxic T cells), and not the memory B cells.

Read about it, if you're interested (cuz I probably got it wrong): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00436-4

Recent reports that antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are not maintained in the serum following recovery from the virus have caused alarm. However, the absence of specific antibodies in the serum does not necessarily mean an absence of immune memory. Here, we discuss our current understanding of the relative contribution of B cells and T cells to immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and the implications for the development of effective treatments and vaccines for COVID-19.

 

[MissMolly]

In reading the paper I was given with my test it says:

IgG - You were likely infected with SARS-CoV-2 more than a few weeks ago, even if no symptoms were present. IgG antibodies are "late antibodies", largely responsible for long-term immunity after infection or vaccination.

Bolding was on the paper. So it seems to me the absence of these indicates no previous detectable infections.

 

[EastWest Gal]

The way I understand, the Pfizer and Moderna use altered RNA to get your cells to produce the spikes and then your immune system creates the antibodies to attack the spike as they would for the virus, thus it is already prepared to repel or fight off the real thing. No virus so the vaccine can't cause the Covid. I have heard reports that there is a T-Cell response so the ability to quickly produce antibodies should remain after the antibodies are no longer present.



What I don't understand about the MRA approach is when does the production of the spikes cease ? If the vaccine gets your body to produce the spike, what tells it to stop ?

Only the few cells which the mRNA gets into produce the spike protein. The protein then incorporates into the cell membrane, and an antibody response and T cell response is triggered. No virus is being produced so the process is not replicated in other cells.

This article in Salon.com explains it fairly well:

https://www.salon.com/2020/12/05/mr...virus-moderna-immunology-lipid-nanoparticles/

This technology may make a universal flu vaccine possible. No more yearly guessing. Imagine a flu vaccine that is 95% effective. This technology has the makings of a Nobel prize.

 

[bmcgonig]

In reading the paper I was given with my test it says:

IgG - You were likely infected with SARS-CoV-2 more than a few weeks ago, even if no symptoms were present. IgG antibodies are "late antibodies", largely responsible for long-term immunity after infection or vaccination.

Bolding was on the paper. So it seems to me the absence of these indicates no previous detectable infections.

Yes. But "detectable" is the important word in that sentence.

A quote from then Nature article above posted by sengsational:

"A*recent report suggesting that antibodies to the virus may only be maintained for 2 months has caused speculation that ‘immunity’ to the virus may not be long lived3. Similarly, a rapid decline in antibodies was reported in mild cases4, although with a half-life of approximately 21 days for IgG we would expect this decrease."

The implication to me is that an antibody test taken several months after an infection might not detect anything.

 

[JoeWras]

This technology has the makings of a Nobel prize.

And she had to persist through a demotion, because the research wasn't bringing in sponsor money. She was not "on the right path." For her persistence alone, she deserves the prize.

My hope is that the science and higher education community note this. There are other issues out there (many with controversy) where research is only going down one path because that path is the only one getting money. So, researchers don't explore other options or ideas. They don't spend time trying to poke holes in the current idea. Challenge is critical to scientific progress, otherwise it becomes an echo chamber, and it fails to be science.