Vaccine Trials

[JoeWras]

The implication to me is that an antibody test taken several months after an infection might not detect anything.

DW's niece is a good example. Niece's husband was exposed through work to a known Covid carrier around March 1. Tests were precious and rare. The known covid carrier got the test only because she was in the highly publicized list of people who attended that conference in Boston.

Niece's husband came down with flu-like symptoms a few days later, and niece got them 2 days after him. Husband mostly struggled with chest symptoms (cough, pressure). Niece migrated more to digestive upset, but still had mild chest issues. Neither got tests because they were unavailable. They quarantined and rode it out.

Fast forward 5 months. Husband tests positive for antibodies. Niece tests negative. The chain of events, include her husband's positive test, nearly guarantees she had it, but she tested negative.

 

[BigNick]

The FDA has made the data available for the Pfizer vaccine [PDF]. The numbers look very good indeed, especially since, within the limits imposed by the relatively small sample size, they seem to be quite uniform across participant categories (age, ethnicity, comorbidities). (For these kinds of analyses, the effective sample size is the number of cases of the disease, not the number of participants.)

Meanwhile, the first people in the UK are getting vaccinated. One of them gave the most British interview ever to CNN.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1336329689095290881

 

[Alan]

Great interview, thanks for posting it.

 

[Chuckanut]

And she had to persist through a demotion, because the research wasn't bringing in sponsor money. She was not "on the right path." For her persistence alone, she deserves the prize.

My hope is that the science and higher education community note this. There are other issues out there (many with controversy) where research is only going down one path because that path is the only one getting money. So, researchers don't explore other options or ideas. They don't spend time trying to poke holes in the current idea. Challenge is critical to scientific progress, otherwise it becomes an echo chamber, and it fails to be science.

IIRC, the two guys who figured out that bacteria were causing most stomach ulcers were scoffed at for about a decade before the medical cognoscenti realized it was true.

 

[retire-early]

vaccine as fire hose

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/briefing/vaccine-don-gable-your-tuesday-briefing.html

The vaccines will be much less effective at preventing death and illness in 2021 if they are introduced into a population where the coronavirus is raging — as is now the case in the U.S.

The analogy being that a vaccine is a fire hose, but how big of a fire that it is trying to put out is part of the equation.

 

[Gumby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/briefing/vaccine-don-gable-your-tuesday-briefing.html

The vaccines will be much less effective at preventing death and illness in 2021 if they are introduced into a population where the coronavirus is raging — as is now the case in the U.S.

The analogy being that a vaccine is a fire hose, but how big of a fire that it is trying to put out is part of the equation.

Well, in that case, let's just not bother with the vaccine. Let the building burn down.

Such a silly article. Of course things would be better if the virus were not currently raging. Vaccine, no vaccine, 50% effective or 90% effective.

 

[retire-early]

Well, in that case, let's just not bother with the vaccine. Let the building burn down.

Such a silly article. Of course things would be better if the virus were not currently raging. Vaccine, no vaccine, 50% effective or 90% effective.

That's not what the article is saying. It is about realistic expectations.
A country cannot have rampant infections and expect vaccines to magically fix it and fast.

 

[Gumby]

That would seem glaringly obvious.

 

[Aerides]

I thought it kind of silly too, because I mean, so well what do we do now? Not take it? It seemed to be very backward looking and not helpful, especially knowing how many people need little encouragement to double down on their decision not to get vaccinated in the first place.

"I heard it won't do that much good" will circulate amongst those who don't read beyond headlines.

 

[JoeWras]

To add to his firehose analogy... How about not bothering with smoke alarms if your house will burn down anyway? After all, there are 3 fires on this block close by. Just get out of the house and don't go to sleep. It's over.

Come on, man.

 

[Gumby]

It's like counter-factual history. Maybe interesting to some, but not particularly useful. The infection rate is what it is and the vaccination effective rate is thought to be 95%. The only thing we can do is press on, because we can't change the past.

 

[RetireBy90]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/briefing/vaccine-don-gable-your-tuesday-briefing.html

The vaccines will be much less effective at preventing death and illness in 2021 if they are introduced into a population where the coronavirus is raging — as is now the case in the U.S.

The analogy being that a vaccine is a fire hose, but how big of a fire that it is trying to put out is part of the equation.

While I understand what the reporter is trying to say, that with current R rates and numbers infected, that defeating the virus with only 20M people to get the vaccine by end of Dec there is still a tremendous risk for the other 170M or so remaining not infected and not vaccinated. (If you take 14M infected, assume only 10% of infected are confirmed by a test.)
However as was pointed out by others that is like saying we can only save 10% of the houses threatened by the fire. Well, then save the 10%. We are where we are. We need to move forward from where we are. Besides there are still Moderna awaiting approval, and 4 others that are in phase III trials.

 

[Chuckanut]

That would seem glaringly obvious.

If Dr. McCoy or Dr. Crusher were handling the situation, we would already have a planetary wide aerial vaccine that would have brought an immediate halt to the plague.

I agree with you, but people watch too much TV these days and often confuse the made-up world of the entertainment industry with reality.

 

[harllee]

If Dr. McCoy or Dr. Crusher were handling the situation, we would already have a planetary wide aerial vaccine that would have brought an immediate halt to the plague.

I agree with you, but people watch too much TV these days and often confuse the made-up world of the entertainment industry with reality.

Dr Julian Bashir is my favorite Star Trek doctor. I am sure he would invent a vaccine that would not only get rid of Covid but would also bring world peace.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Dr Julian Bashir is my favorite Star Trek doctor. I am sure he would invent a vaccine that would not only get rid of Covid but would also bring world peace.

But would it also grow hair for bald people? If not, then poor job all around.

 

[jollystomper]

I just heard Moderna will request emerge approval today... It was also "reported" that the CDC will respond on December 17th... That's another 2 and 1/2 "more weeks"....I must have heard it wrong or it's being mis-reported. Surely the CDC has been keeping up very closely with the details on Moderna's vaccine and not waiting for the actual filing. I'm sure (or hope) there is a good reason.

It actually the FDA, they are also going to convene an advisory committee meeting on the Moderna vaccine that will be livestreamed to the public:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...ittee-meeting-discuss-second-covid-19-vaccine

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has scheduled a meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) on Dec. 17 to discuss the request for emergency use authorization (EUA) for a COVID-19 vaccine from Moderna Inc. ...

The FDA intends to livestream the VRBPAC meeting on the agency’s YouTube, Facebook and Twitter channels; the meeting will also be webcast from the FDA website.

It will be good to hear the direct discussion not filtered through other lenses.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, in that case, let's just not bother with the vaccine. Let the building burn down.

Such a silly article. Of course things would be better if the virus were not currently raging. Vaccine, no vaccine, 50% effective or 90% effective.

I think it is saying that doing everything we can still do to keep the infection rate down is as important as ever. The vaccine won’t fix things quickly. We’ve got to continue the tightened precautions.

 

[Gumby]

Indeed we do. The author just chose a very poor way to make that point, in my opinion.

 

[Alan]

I think it is saying that doing everything we can still do to keep the infection rate down is as important as ever. The vaccine won’t fix things quickly. We’ve got to continue the tightened precautions.

Exactly.

Messaging over here is very strong that once vaccinated you should still follow social distancing and mask guidance as you may still be a carrier of the virus.

If you drive from area of restrictions to an area with lower restrictions then you will be subject to fines like everyone else.

 

[audreyh1]

Exactly.

Messaging over here is very strong that once vaccinated you should still follow social distancing and mask guidance as you may still be a carrier of the virus.

If you drive from area of restrictions to an area with lower restrictions then you will be subject to fines like everyone else.

After many months, the US compliance has ended up being so poor, that it’s hard to know whether people hearing about vaccine availability is going to make it even worse or not. Some will take heart and renew precautions, others may not. Compliance seems to improve when an area is hit really hard - but it has to be hit hard, so lots of suffering and exhausted medical resources.

 

[jollystomper]

Indeed we do. The author just chose a very poor way to make that point, in my opinion.

I agree. There just seems to be a lot of "we must make 'good' the enemy of 'perfect' " attitudes going around these days.

Wait until the vaccine is distributed. I predict there will be a "watch" on to write an article on the first person who gets very sick from it, with a similar tone.

 

[sengsational]

For those interested in the different technical approaches that vaccines can take, you can listen to about 3 minutes of this video from the point I've cued it up.

What he says is that there are four approaches: weakened virus, dead virus, adenovirus, and mRNA. The one this doctor would prefer is the mRNA because it's targeted.

https://youtu.be/3XN12DGcrug?t=3111

 

[kyzymurgist]

For those interested in the different technical approaches that vaccines can take, you can listen to about 3 minutes of this video from the point I've cued it up.

What he says is that there are four approaches: weakened virus, dead virus, adenovirus, and mRNA. The one this doctor would prefer is the mRNA because it's targeted.

https://youtu.be/3XN12DGcrug?t=3111

What about the Novavax recombinant nanoparticle vaccine using spike protein fragment? Based on phase 1 data, should be as effective and safe as the mRNA approach.

And certainly easier to distribute than the Pfizer vaccine. If I had a choice, Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax would all be good candidates. Assuming all are ultimately approved.

 

[explanade]

What about the Novavax recombinant nanoparticle vaccine using spike protein fragment? Based on phase 1 data, should be as effective and safe as the mRNA approach.

And certainly easier to distribute than the Pfizer vaccine. If I had a choice, Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax would all be good candidates. Assuming all are ultimately approved.

Yeah I heard Novavax may have one of the best results, in terms of how much antibodies and T cells it stimulates.

 

[RetireBy90]

What about the Novavax recombinant nanoparticle vaccine using spike protein fragment? Based on phase 1 data, should be as effective and safe as the mRNA approach.

And certainly easier to distribute than the Pfizer vaccine. If I had a choice, Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax would all be good candidates. Assuming all are ultimately approved.

I think it is an adenovirus. Here is a link
https://ir.novavax.com/news-release...ovid-19-vaccine-clinical-development-progress

Says in part

NVX-CoV2373 is a protein-based vaccine candidate engineered from the genetic sequence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 disease. NVX-CoV2373 was created using Novavax’ recombinant nanoparticle technology to generate antigen derived from the coronavirus spike (S) protein adjuvanted with Novavax’ patented saponin-based Matrix-M™ to enhance the immune response and stimulate high levels of neutralizing antibodies.

Above my pay grade, been reading docs with all this medical terminology and I pick up every 3rd word.