Wave 2 and 3

[Toocold]

More and more "experts" are saying that we should expect the next wave during the fall. Does anybody else feel like our elected officials will be behind on this as well? I suspect that another stay in house order will not be as tolerated.

 

[ls99]

Me thinks most countries which used lockdown will have second wave. Sweeden will not.

 

[razztazz]

Most of them will point to areas of success this Summer. Increasing economic activity. Not-an-explosion of cases. Things like that. Then say: See! It isn't going to happen. Besides even if it does happen it'll be like the flu. Hoping to get lucky and get-away-with it. BTW: Experts are easily discredited in the minds of enough of The People. They're your friends when they suit you and hand wringing pee-pee-pants' wasting resources when they don't. This demonstrated on recurrent basis right here. And there's just enough truth in it to make it work. Even I've done it.

If it's not appreciably worse they'll say "well, we've been through this before and we did OK. Why's everybody worrying?!" If it does blow up, it'll be a wonderful crisis to take advantage of and blame on the other guy. Some of which might be quite correct and proper. Some of which will just be deflections and retconning history.

 

[MRG]

The Nile is a very long river with plenty of places to feel secure while danger lurks around you.

 

[razztazz]

Me thinks most countries which used lockdown will have second wave. Sweeden will not.

Yes but you don't know. Even the experts don't know. They just won't say.

And along with this, anybody know the current rate of suspected total infection in the U.S.? Lots of references to tons more people have been exposed to it but we don't know how many because we didn't start the game with 330 million test kits.

I was assuming a min 70-80% exposure rate for herd immunity but I've read more than one story recently talking about as little as 50% will do the job. If that's the case we might be there or nearly there right now.

 

[Toocold]

I'm thinking that we will finally exit the shutdown by July, only to start the shutdown by Sept. I hope this isn't true and we are learning and preparing, not just reacting to the current plight.

 

[mckittri2000]

More and more "experts" are saying that we should expect the next wave during the fall. Does anybody else feel like our elected officials will be behind on this as well? I suspect that another stay in house order will not be as tolerated.

The experts have been wrong at every turn of the virus. All the government can do is try and be prepared. As far as the stay at home order, I think some governors will try to exert their will on the residents of their state.

 

[Rustic23]

I went to a locale grocery yesterday. In the small town of Onalaska, yes the same one hit by a tornado a few days ago. (another story) No one, other than I, was wearing a mask or any other kind of ppe. They were not cleaning carts, counters or any other 'high traffic' areas. I short, it was 'What Virus'. So my opinion is, while this part of Texas has few cases, 9, they are in for a rude awakening. The probability of the virus arriving here during and after the tornado as aid comes in from Houston is IMHO inevitable. Yet the attitude of the people is the virus has come and gone. Therefore, I see a second wave sooner than later around here.

 

[LRDave]

It will probably get just enough better for some to think college football season is a good idea...

 

[eytonxav]

I am not sure what the science is that would make this true. I do not recall SARS, another corona virus having multiple wavers. That said, flu can re-emerge over time, but I am not sure if it would be correct to call those waves of the same virus.

 

[pacergal]

As a new virus, we don't know what we don't know.
However, I don't think we have even completed the first wave of illness, we flattened the curve to help the healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed.
No doubt many more positives will be coming in the next few weeks as people are out and about, especially without masks.
I have no idea how people will respond if the numbers grow exponentially as they did before.

 

[Winemaker]

Well, folks keep saying that there will be a 2nd wave. And a 3rd, just like in all influenza cases. But folks keep saying this isn't the flu, so we will just have to wait.

 

[ls99]

Yes but you don't know. Even the experts don't know. They just won't say. ......

.

Therefore, my prediction is valid. I bet you my standard fare: 10 cents US $, or a cup of coffe in any diner within 10 miles of Greensburg PA.

 

[audreyh1]

More and more "experts" are saying that we should expect the next wave during the fall. Does anybody else feel like our elected officials will be behind on this as well? I suspect that another stay in house order will not be as tolerated.

I’m expecting a big wave this summer. Why would it be delayed until fall with all the reopening happening now?

 

[Aerides]

Since wave 1 is far from receding, I won't pretend I can predict the future.

 

[Chapter 3]

Currently reading, The Great Influenza, about the 1918 pandemic. Very interesting read written by one of the experts being cited today - John Barry. Given the depth of the coverage in the book of the subject I have no issue suggesting he is an expert on the subject. I would expect some "leaders" to ignore, or simply be ignorant of, science and history, and not prepare for the second wave which could make the first wave look minor.

 

[razztazz]

I am not sure what the science is that would make this true. I do not recall SARS, another corona virus having multiple wavers. That said, flu can re-emerge over time, but I am not sure if it would be correct to call those waves of the same virus.

There is no science that makes it true. There is plenty that makes it plausible, though. This is where the great hang-up is. The People and the Establishment want easy, black/white answers. Hence "The Experts." But they know they don't know ergo the constant hedging. That's actually good but it doesn't magically solve the problem.

In new situations that takes time. "The data" is not "in." It gets back to which way do you want to go with it and which consequences can you live with or convince yourself to ignore? How may punches can you take? Sonny Liston punches, or Floyd Patterson punches? And just what is the worst case or the least-bad-bad-outcome, anyway? Nobody can know. They can just conjecture. The "leadership" types will have to make these decisions. In the end everyone will want to claim credit. See? We told you so."

 

[audreyh1]

I went to a locale grocery yesterday. In the small town of Onalaska, yes the same one hit by a tornado a few days ago. (another story) No one, other than I, was wearing a mask or any other kind of ppe. They were not cleaning carts, counters or any other 'high traffic' areas. I short, it was 'What Virus'. So my opinion is, while this part of Texas has few cases, 9, they are in for a rude awakening. The probability of the virus arriving here during and after the tornado as aid comes in from Houston is IMHO inevitable. Yet the attitude of the people is the virus has come and gone. Therefore, I see a second wave sooner than later around here.

IMO quite a few areas are in for a rude awakening! Especially rural areas that have been mostly spared until now and as a consequence aren’t taking the virus seriously.

 

[Montecfo]

We undoubtedly will have increased cases with reopening. That was always expected.

We flattened the curve. That was the goal.
I think a second widespread lockdown will not be accepted, but social distancing, masks and personal risk management will be here for a while, maybe a long while.

 

[Just_Steve]

Me thinks most countries which used lockdown will have second wave. Sweeden will not.

Only because Sweeden is killing off all of their weak in the first wave.

 

[LOL!]

People will do what people do. Each family and/or individuals will have to decide for themselves what they do based on all available information including local information.

As long as information is not suppressed, then I think future waves will be more localized. I am talking about information such as "Jimmy got the 'rona and he was in the grocery store, the liquor store, and at the gas station in the past few days." Or "Jenny died this morning and I had just seen her over at Sonic."

So readily available PPE (gloves, masks, disinfectant), testing, and personal habits will make things different than back in March.

Once you know somebody close to you who died, you tend to sober up.

 

[Dtail]

I'm thinking that we will finally exit the shutdown by July, only to start the shutdown by Sept. I hope this isn't true and we are learning and preparing, not just reacting to the current plight.

I don't think there will be another shutdown. Too close to the election.
Plus, there also could be statements that "most" of the cases are really the flu and not the virus. Doesn't really matter if it is true or not.

 

[Chuckanut]

And along with this, anybody know the current rate of suspected total infection in the U.S.? Lots of references to tons more people have been exposed to it but we don't know how many because we didn't start the game with 330 million test kits.

We don't need 330 million test kits. We need enough kits to test a representative sample. This is nothing new. They do it all the time when polling people for various causes. The methods are well known and reasonably accurate. Just don't let the ignorant press misrepresent the findings.

Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

 

[Dtail]

We don't need 330 million test kits. We need enough kits to test a representative sample. This is nothing new. They do it all the time when polling people for various causes. The methods are well known and reasonably accurate. Just don't let the ignorant press misrepresent the findings.

Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

Coz the numbers will look bad.
But if it was thought through, the infection rate is most likely much more under reported than the death rate.
So if we had the representative testing, it could be stated that the more accurate death rate is much lower than reported and thus perhaps folks could take some comfort in that stat.

 

[LOL!]

Why it hasn't been done is a mystery to me.

It is really no mystery why it hasn't been done.