What If There’s Never A Covid-19 Vaccine?

[Clone]

I have been trying to wrap my head around this, and came up with this diagram to organize my thoughts. My hope is that the treatments can be identified and improved such that the outcomes are improved. Self isolation/ management of interaction will allow us to influence the probability of us coming into contact with the virus. The longer we wait, the more likely it is that the treatments will improve. But in the end, we are all on the conveyor belt of life.

 

[ivinsfan]

Remember also that there are multiple strains of influenza viruses that cause the flu (see CDC graphic below) while only one corona virus causing Covid-19 has been detected. This should mean a singe vaccine can be created to help us develop immunity to the disease without the complication of multiple strains.

I do remember... I also know there are enough differences between the strains that they have labeled them 1 2 3 et al..so that very well could be a factor in vaccine success.

I would love to think one sizes fits all, but I dont think we know that yet.

 

[gozer]

On the bright side, evidently the 2003-2004 SARS died off, with virtually no new cases since 2004. Maybe we’ll be so lucky again?

That would be nice and I hope the same, but it probably wont happen. The first SARS and MERS were both much more lethal (~10% and ~33% respectively), but they were not really contagious before symptoms were exhibited. They were quite easy to contain. This one seems to have traded lethality for very easy spread.

But to end on a positive note, it is my hope that finding a vaccine for one coronavirus type disease may end up leading to curing the others. This would include 229E, NL64, OC43 and HKU1. Or as we collectively call them, the common cold.

 

[audreyh1]

There are many strains of SARS-Cov-2 already identified.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v2

I do remember... I also know there are enough differences between the strains that they have labeled them 1 2 3 et al..so that very well could be a factor in vaccine success.

I would love to think one sizes fits all, but I dont think we know that yet.

Just because there are multiple strains doesn’t mean a vaccine can’t be effective against all of them. Remember it was cowpox that yielded a vaccine against smallpox.

 

[Sojourner]

I'm pretty confident that a vaccine will be developed that will at least prevent the worst symptoms of the disease and maybe it will require annual tweaks to keep on top of it but we already do that for the flu. I'm also confident that there will be drugs developed that will manage the disease if someone still gets infected by the virus. Time will tell.

I personally believe a vaccine is likely in a year or two. But I also think we have added this virus and its future mutations to the list of things we get to deal with every year.

+1

There are a number of very promising vaccine prototypes in development, and at least one has been successful in early trials. Based on everything I've read and heard recently about this, a vaccine almost certainly will be available within the next 1-2 years. Until that happens, though, day-to-day life is going to be more challenging, annoying, and dangerous in certain ways than in the pre-Covid times. It's hard to imagine, for example, going to a crowded theater to attend a concert, or going grocery shopping without PPE and disinfectants for at least the next 12 months, possibly longer.

This article describes a promising vaccine under development at the University of Pittsburgh:
https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-in-pittsburgh-say-they-ve-already-developed-a-covid-19-vaccine-candidate

 

[ivinsfan]

Just because there are multiple strains doesn’t mean a vaccine can’t be effective against all of them. Remember it was cowpox that yielded a vaccine against smallpox.

Yes it will be interesting if it turns out to be more like the flu,, with different strains and subsets or something like the smallpox vaccine. It would be so much easier if it turns out to be the one size fits all.

 

[GTFan]

Oxford UK has one in trials that could be ready by September (at least 1 mil doses with quick ramp-up after that). They had a lot of experience developing one for MERS.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52394485

 

[REWahoo]

Here is a NYT article on the search for a vaccine and the challenges that may - or may not - lie ahead: The Coronavirus Is Mutating. What Does That Mean for a Vaccine?

Among the thousands of samples of the long strand of RNA that makes up the coronavirus, 11 mutations have become fairly common. But as far as we know, it’s the same virus infecting people all over the world, meaning that only one “strain” of the virus exists, said Peter Thielen, a molecular biologist with the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

Only one of those common mutations affects the “spike protein,” which enables the virus to infect cells in the throat and lungs. Efforts to produce antibodies that block the spike protein are central to many efforts to develop a vaccine. Since the spike protein has changed little so far, some scientists believe that’s a sign that it can’t alter itself very much and remain infectious.

There’s still a lot about the virus we don’t know. We don’t even know if people are immune to the virus if they’ve caught it already, nor how long that immunity could last, though work is well underway to understand these things.

Mr. Thielen says it is still unclear how those mutations in the genome will ultimately affect countermeasures like a vaccine.

“We just have to keep looking,” he said.

 

[ivinsfan]

[-]Remember also that there are multiple strains of influenza viruses that cause the flu (see CDC graphic below) while only one corona virus causing Covid-19 has been detected. This should mean a singe vaccine can be created to help us develop immunity to the disease without the complication of multiple strains.[/-]

Edit: Never mind.

I know diddly about this virus and should limit my comments to "+1" or "Oh, crap!". Too bad I lack enough self control to do so.

If we limited comments to posters that knew more then diddly about COVID, no one would post anything, including me.

 

[LOL!]

There are other viruses for which there is no vaccine such as HIV or hepatitis C.
Example of vaccines: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/terms/usvaccines.html

We know the behavior of humans who are knowledgeable about AIDS, so we know that some people will change behaviors to avoid getting infected and some won't. We also have medicines for folks who are infected with HIV.

With no vaccine for Covid, I suspect that people will get sick and die. Those people will be predominantly those that don't change their behavior and the elderly with co-morbidities. Clearly, there will be some collateral damage.

Societies and governments and individuals will have to figure out what they will accept and what they won't accept.

 

[RobbieB]

Me thinks I'll go out and get it sooner (younger) than later (older)

If you're gonna get it anyway might as well be early.

 

[ivinsfan]

There are other viruses for which there is no vaccine such as HIV or hepatitis C.
Example of vaccines: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/terms/usvaccines.html

We know the behavior of humans who are knowledgeable about AIDS, so we know that some people will change behaviors to avoid getting infected and some won't. We also have medicines for folks who are infected with HIV.

With no vaccine for Covid, I suspect that people will get sick and die. Those people will be predominantly those that don't change their behavior and the elderly with co-morbidities. Clearly, there will be some collateral damage.

Societies and governments and individuals will have to figure out what they will accept and what they won't accept.

How do you change your behavior for Covid? If you mean not going to the super bowl or the state fair that's one thing. If you mean living like a hermit( no offence Hermit) indefinitely that's another thing entirely.

 

[Music Lover]

The World Health Organization on Saturday said that there was currently not enough evidence that a person who has recovered from covid-19 is immune from a second infection.

They've been spectacularly wrong quite a bit regarding the virus, so I guess we'll see.

 

[ivinsfan]

They've been spectacularly wrong quite a bit regarding the virus, so I guess we'll see.

They are going on the hope that even a broken clock is correct twice a day,... a couple of days ago their breaking news update was that Africa doesn't have many ventilators and could run short.

 

[Midpack]

Me thinks I'll go out and get it sooner (younger) than later (older)

If you're gonna get it anyway might as well be early.

Somewhat tongue in cheek I assume. If not it might be smart to confirm local health care resources aren’t stretched thin, and more effective therapies could become available in time...

 

[audreyh1]

Me thinks I'll go out and get it sooner (younger) than later (older)

If you're gonna get it anyway might as well be early.

I disagree.

I’d like the US hospitals to gain more experience in treating the virus, as well as hopefully not be totally swamped.

In terms of age, I don’t think 1 or 2 years generally makes much difference.

 

[Ready]

I disagree.

I’d like the US hospitals to gain more experience in treating the virus, as well as hopefully not be totally swamped.

My thoughts as well. We have learned a lot about the virus in the few short months it’s been around, including what type of supportive therapies work best. The longer we go without getting it the more knowledgeable our hospitals will be in how to care for us when we do.

 

[harley]

If there's no vaccine and no herd immunity,

 

[Amethyst]

Yes. I'm all for getting bad things over with, but in this case I say - Don't catch today what you can put off catching till tomorrow.

Despite the usual bizaare political stuff, medical people all over the world are working frantically to get ahead of this wretched disease. Let's give 'em a chance.

My thoughts as well. We have learned a lot about the virus in the few short months it’s been around, including what type of supportive therapies work best. The longer we go without getting it the more knowledgeable our hospitals will be in how to care for us when we do.

 

[Aerides]

Never is a long time. But I do think a vaccine is later than sooner. However, more effective therapies might well come along before a vaccine - more will be known about the best way to tackle the virus, and yes, herd immunity will build. There'll be a point where the risk of death from getting it drops significantly for all but the most vulnerable, and risk of catching it also goes down if antibodies=immunity.

Better masks will become available (ie, N95's for everyone). More tactics to use to avoid it will be learned. Cultural shifts such as companies requiring sick workers to stay home, with pay, vs. soldiering in to the workplace. Changes from open plans back to individual cubes for offices. Stuff like that will happen. Same day testing will proliferate.

So, even if we wait 2-3-5 years for a vaccine, other things will start to appear as compensating controls, all of which will drop the risk a little bit, collectively, hopefully, a good bit.

 

[LOL!]

One can research what happened with Black Death / Bubonic Plague

In the meantime

 

[RAE]

Based on what I've read, it's likely that those already infected with the virus will have some degree of immunity for a while..........like maybe 1-3 years, minimum. That's not a certainty, but it seems likely. The virus may begin to mutate during that time period, but our immune sytems have "memory cells" that will likely remember being previously attacked by this virus, even if the virus has mutated somewhat and is somewhat different. So, if your immune system is strong, it should be able to mount a decent defense against another attack. So you may get sick, but not that sick.

I'm not an epidemiologist, so this is just based on what I've read. Nothing is for sure with this virus, as I think everyone understands........

 

[martyp]

Basically, there is a lot of effort to make a vaccine but nobody knows. What I think is important is that seeing this discussion come up now simply adds to the realization that there are no ready solutions on the horizon. By horizon I mean is any acceptable time frame relative to the economic lockdown. Various places are already beginning to open up again in spite of all the well meaning epidemiological advice. There will, in the end, be a wide variety of solutions targeted toward living with the virus and managing the transition from now to then.

 

[Badger]

Me thinks I'll go out and get it sooner (younger) than later (older)

If you're gonna get it anyway might as well be early.

Well, good luck with that. At this time there is no evidence that antibodies indicate immunity. Cases have been identified of people that contracted the virus, were hospitalized, eventually their health improved, and then later had to be hospitalized due to reinfection. Of course it could also work out that when someone becomes infected that they don't make it past a few days. Lots of examples for that. No one knows if they are one of the lucky ones who will survive. It would be a big gamble to find out.



Even though I do invest a portion of retirement funds (conservatively) in the stock market I am not much of a gambler. I have enough cash set aside to easily see me through a few decades until I kick the bucket. You won't find me in Vegas any more than finding me taking a gamble to see if I am one of the lucky ones.



Cheers!