BA.2 variant - new study suggests severity concerns

[Bryan Barnfellow]

CNN reports (with an update today) from a new pre-print study on variant BA.2 that suggests we are not out of the woods yet and it may be premature to relax restrictions.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/17/...nzCB7noO8wEqcKsiDFdLLpIdBCq9lwJZ26J75tWHWCw7s


Key takeaways:

"The BA.2 virus -- a subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant -- isn't just spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, new research suggests.

"New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.

"And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely.

"BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron.

The article suggests that prior Omicron exposure plus vaccine helps to provide some protection and that the group effects will be less dramatic (no surges) than those for individuals unlucky enough to catch this variant.

-BB

 

[Another Reader]

Follow the reputable virologists and epidemiologists on Twitter for the facts. All of what Bryan stated is accurate according to them. BA.2 is overtaking BA.1 in Denmark and other European countries. It has started to grow rapidly here. It has also returned to attacking the lungs. And it's showing up just as we and most of Europe are relaxing restrictions and dropping most testing.

 

[Alan]

<moderator note> Several posts discussing news outlets have been removed as they do not conform to the Covid forum rules (see sticky at top of forum) and are dragging this thread off the topic of Covid variants. If you don’t agree with a particular source of information please cite alternatives so that a reasoned discussion can be pursued.

Thanks

 

[audreyh1]

The study is a preprint and disease severity studied in hamsters. PDF is available of the preprint https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.14.480335v1.full.pdf

Unfortunately I think it’s still way too early to know much about BA.2 even though it is dominant in several countries, and seems to have gained dominance as Omicron cases were dropping overall. It’s dominant in SA and Denmark right now.

 

[pacergal]

I seem to remember reading about the BA.2 "stealth Omicron" a while ago, figured it would be a matter of time before it showed up significantly.
Epidemiology is so interesting.

 

[audreyh1]

It’s actually been around for a while, almost as long as Omicron BA.1. But for all that and it’s dominance in some countries we really don’t seem to know much about it other that it’s yet more infectious.

 

[Montecfo]

Yes. That same study suggests people that have had omicron may have resistance to BA.2.

That's a good sign for the US, where north of 70 percent may be immune to Omicron.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-02-17/estimated-73-us-immune-omicron-covid

 

[Out of Steam]

Yes. That same study suggests people that have had omicron may have resistance to BA.2.

That's a good sign for the US, where north of 70 percent may be immune to Omicron.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-02-17/estimated-73-us-immune-omicron-covid

My wife and I have been vaccinated and boosted, but I'm reasonably sure that neither of us has been infected with omicron. We stuck very close to home between early January and this week, when we returned to the gym.

Even if it only lasts weeks, it's worth taking advantage of the lull in cases. But Governments around the world have acted in ways that will make it impossible to reimpose mandatory precautions in any future surge.

 

[Amethyst]

I'm going sufficiently crazy trying to figure out when, and whether, to get a fourth (and fifth and sixth and on and on...) booster. So far, it's just been advised for the immunocompromised.

 

[braumeister]

I'm going sufficiently crazy trying to figure out when, and whether, to get a fourth (and fifth and sixth and on and on...) booster. So far, it's just been advised for the immunocompromised.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over this. I've been getting an annual flu shot for many, many, years, so I won't be surprised if an annual Covid shot becomes a commonplace. It will most likely be optimized for the current series of virus variants, and will probably be at least as effective as the flu shots have been.

 

[Aerides]

I wouldn't lose any sleep over this. I've been getting an annual flu shot for many, many, years, so I won't be surprised if an annual Covid shot becomes a commonplace. It will most likely be optimized for the current series of virus variants, and will probably be at least as effective as the flu shots have been.

Yes. And it appears the 3 so far are cumulative, so for most us 3 is golden for a while. I'll be in line every time another jab is recommended, annual or otherwise.

 

[anethum]

Denmark lifted all of their Covid restrictions early this month. 81% of the population is fully vaccinated and 62% boosted. The number of new cases in Denmark has been at an extraordinarily high rate for weeks, with a running average at present of 703/100,000 population per day. That's 0.7% of the entire population testing positive each day! It was over 800/100,000 not long ago. The hospitalization rate there from Covid is now at an all-time pandemic high, and deaths are increasing. Denmark has excellent testing, and the cumulative number of cases there nearly equals 50% of the country's population of 5.8 million. (However, some individuals have undoubtedly contracted Covid more than once.) The overall cumulative Covid death rate per 100,000 in Denmark is only about 1/4 of the rate in the USA.

Given Denmark's high vaccination & booster rates relative to the USA, I'm concerned about the lifting of restrictions nearly everywhere in the USA.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital?country=DNK

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220217/covid-rates-jump-denmark-no-restrictions

 

[Sojourner]

"New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.

"And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely.

"BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron.

Sigh. I certainly don't want to come across as blasé or indifferent to this news, but this strikes me a bit like "The Queen is dead. Long live the Queen!"

There is little doubt that new variants will continue to arise and blaze around the world, then fade into the background (perhaps to re-emerge later, like seasonal influenza strains). But what can we do about it? It's just a fact of the world. I will continue to get any and all recommended vaccines and boosters, and I will continue to wear masks in all situations where it's prudent to do so. But... but...

Life must go on.

I simply can't tolerate the idea of sacrificing more of my life to the fear of getting mildly (or moderately) sick from a coronavirus that has apparently become a permanent fixture of the world at this point. I will do (and have done) everything that public health officials and experts recommend, but I won't return to the bad old days of "sheltering in place" and living a small, limited life ala 2020 and early 2021. Obviously, the emergence of a new variant that's both much more deadly and highly resistant to vaccines would change this attitude, but until then, count me in the "triple-vax and chill" camp.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Sigh. I certainly don't want to come across as blasé or indifferent to this news, but this strikes me a bit like "The Queen is dead. Long live the Queen!"

There is little doubt that new variants will continue to arise and blaze around the world, then fade into the background (perhaps to re-emerge later, like seasonal influenza strains). But what can we do about it? It's just a fact of the world. I will continue to get any and all recommended vaccines and boosters, and I will continue to wear masks in all situations where it's prudent to do so. But... but...

Life must go on.

I simply can't tolerate the idea of sacrificing more of my life to the fear of getting mildly (or moderately) sick from a coronavirus that has apparently become a permanent fixture of the world at this point. I will do (and have done) everything that public health officials and experts recommend, but I won't return to the bad old days of "sheltering in place" and living a small, limited life ala 2020 and early 2021. Obviously, the emergence of a new variant that's both much more deadly and highly resistant to vaccines would change this attitude, but until then, count me in the "triple-vax and chill" camp.

Add me to your camp.

 

[Chuckanut]

My wife and I have been vaccinated and boosted, but I'm reasonably sure that neither of us has been infected with omicron. We stuck very close to home between early January and this week, when we returned to the gym.

Even if it only lasts weeks, it's worth taking advantage of the lull in cases. But Governments around the world have acted in ways that will make it impossible to reimpose mandatory precautions in any future surge.

IMO, the number of infections is far less relevant than the number of seriously ill people and the number who perish. IIRC, Denmark has a much hither infection rate than the US at the moment, but a death rate somewhat less than the US. Their vaccination rate is also higher than the US (81% in Denmark).

The vaccines continue to be amazingly effective when it comes to preventing deaths and serious illness. Infections, not so much. But, having just returned from StateX where masking and social distancing in restaurants, bars, and other crowded indoor places is not popular, I have to think the vaccines helped me quite a bit. N=1. YMMV.

 

[Badger]

I'm going sufficiently crazy trying to figure out when, and whether, to get a fourth (and fifth and sixth and on and on...) booster. So far, it's just been advised for the immunocompromised.

It seems to me that the majority of anyone of SS age and older are probably compromised in some way. It is one of five categories of things that can weaken the immune system. One example is: If arthritis is an issue and regular intra-articular injections of corticosteroids are given then the immune system can be compromised. A single intra-articular injection can negatively impact for as much as one to four weeks.
I think I will consider another boost when they become available.


Cheers!

 

[foxfirev5]

Add me to your camp.

That's how we are living our life. At this point.

 

[RetMD21]

I like the 2022 version of the pandemic. Vaccines are available as are rapid test kits and good masks. Michigan has had recommendations rather than mandates for adult masking. You can be careful or not. More variants will appear but between post infection immunity and vaccination surges will likely diminish. There is work being done on intranasal boosters which may be more effective at preventing infection and effective inexpensive vaccines are being rolled out to the developing world.

 

[Montecfo]

My wife and I have been vaccinated and boosted, but I'm reasonably sure that neither of us has been infected with omicron. We stuck very close to home between early January and this week, when we returned to the gym.

Even if it only lasts weeks, it's worth taking advantage of the lull in cases. But Governments around the world have acted in ways that will make it impossible to reimpose mandatory precautions in any future surge.

Two thoughts:
1. you might have gotten omicron and been asymptomatic.
2. I don't think people will stand for new mandates at this point.

 

[Iusta]

I like the 2022 version of the pandemic. Vaccines are available as are rapid test kits and good masks. Michigan has had recommendations rather than mandates for adult masking. You can be careful or not. More variants will appear but between post infection immunity and vaccination surges will likely diminish. There is work being done on intranasal boosters which may be more effective at preventing infection and effective inexpensive vaccines are being rolled out to the developing world.

I like the Michigan version…It’s the way forward. As with all Coronavirus’s there will be new strain after new strain and all trending weaker till it normalizes. Viruses can only survive forever if they don’t kill huge numbers of hosts.

 

[Another Reader]

I like the Michigan version…It’s the way forward. As with all Coronavirus’s there will be new strain after new strain and all trending weaker till it normalizes. Viruses can only survive forever if they don’t kill huge numbers of hosts.

What is the basis for this statement? Is it found in a textbook or a research paper? I have not noticed any trend overall toward weakening of this corona virus. We have seen BA.1 get better at infectivity vs previous strains and BA.2 is reportedly even better at infectivity and damaging the lungs.

 

[Teacher Terry]

I am in the same camp as the people that resumed their lives. It would be different if I had a auto immune disorder.

 

[Retch The Grate]

What is the basis for this statement? Is it found in a textbook or a research paper? I have not noticed any trend overall toward weakening of this corona virus. We have seen BA.1 get better at infectivity vs previous strains and BA.2 is reportedly even better at infectivity and damaging the lungs.

There is no basis for it, it's a statement people keep making in wishful thinking but the reality of viruses is they have no particular selection pressure to become less severe. The virus will keep changing randomly, some random changes will be less severe and more contagious, but some will be more severe and more contagious. BA.2 definitely has me concerned because of the potentially increased severity.

 

[audreyh1]

I wouldn't lose any sleep over this. I've been getting an annual flu shot for many, many, years, so I won't be surprised if an annual Covid shot becomes a commonplace. It will most likely be optimized for the current series of virus variants, and will probably be at least as effective as the flu shots have been.

Well they certainly aren’t talking about it, and the Moderna recent attempt with an Omicron specific booster was a bust. I don’t get any sense of urgency in this - certainly not like the initial vaccines.

 

[Iusta]

There is no basis for it, it's a statement people keep making in wishful thinking but the reality of viruses is they have no particular selection pressure to become less severe. The virus will keep changing randomly, some random changes will be less severe and more contagious, but some will be more severe and more contagious. BA.2 definitely has me concerned because of the potentially increased severity.

It’s not a statement but rather a fact called evolution. Study any viral pandemic from history and you have your answer. Here is one of thousands of experts on the subject: https://news.northeastern.edu/2021/12/13/virus-evolution/