What If There’s Never A Covid-19 Vaccine?

[Midpack]

There are quite a few posts from people here saying they’re planning to (effectively) self isolate until there’s a vaccine in “12-18 months.” There’s never been a coronavirus vaccine, so there may not be with this Covid-19. Then what?

I well understand this presents a serious problem for those vulnerable due to underlying health issues.

We won’t be first in line for restaurants or theater when the time comes, but we are not planning to self isolate, as so many credible sources suggest most of us (70%?) will be exposed eventually no matter what.

There have been several articles on the difficulties re: a Covid-19 vaccine. Excerpts from just one:

Hopes for a return to normal life after the coronavirus hinge on the development of a vaccine. But there’s no guarantee, experts say, that a fully effective COVID-19 vaccine is possible.

That may seem counterintuitive. So many brutal viral diseases have been conquered by vaccination — smallpox, polio, mumps — that the technique seems all but infallible. But not all viral diseases are equally amenable to vaccination. “Some viruses are very easy to make a vaccine for, and some are very complicated,” says Adolfo García-Sastre, director of the Global Health and Emerging Pathogens Institute at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. “It depends on the specific characteristics of how the virus infects.”

Unfortunately, it seems that COVID-19 is on the difficult end of the scale.

It’s possible, Roper fears, that COVID-19 could be a virus that proves resistant to vaccination. “This may be one,” she says. “If we have one, this is going to be it, I think.” The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/will-there-be-a-coronavirus-vaccine-maybe-not.html

 

[pb4uski]

If there is no vaccine, wouldn't there eventually be herd immunity? In fact, now that I think of it, given the reported number of people who have had it and survived (some asymptomatic and some with flu-like symptoms and some hospitalized) it sounds like there may be herd immunity before there is a vaccine.

Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.

The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.

But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.

 

[audreyh1]

1. I don’t believe that there will never be a vaccine as it seems tremendous progress was made on the SARS vaccine, they just lost funding since SARS went away.

2. Personally, I am really waiting for treatment options to improve significantly and become more widely available. Seems like many people/companies etc. are working furiously on this and some progress is being made.

As long as DF is alive and in his elder care home, I have to be very careful. It is probably inevitable that his home is affected, but I don’t want to be the cause. At this point I haven’t really been able to see past that.

 

[VanWinkle]

1. I don’t believe that there will never be a vaccine as it seems tremendous progress was made on the SARS vaccine, they just lost funding since SARS went away.

2. Personally, I am really waiting for treatment options to improve significantly and become more widely available. Seems like many people/companies etc. are working furiously on this and some progress is being made.

As long as DF is alive and in his elder care home, I have to be very careful. It is probably inevitable that his home is affected, but I don’t want to be the cause. At this point I haven’t really been able to see past that.

Sorry to hear you are unable to see your Dad at this time. The Virus has
changed many things, including those we love.

 

[audreyh1]

I will be able to see DF again starting May 1. He has managed to talk to me briefly on the phone a couple of times.

When I said I haven’t been able to see past that, I meant that DF situation determines our actions at this time and I haven’t thought about what would be different if it were just DH and myself affected. I know we would be back home for sure.

 

[ivinsfan]

1. I don’t believe that there will never be a vaccine as it seems tremendous progress was made on the SARS vaccine, they just lost funding since SARS went away.

2. Personally, I am really waiting for treatment options to improve significantly and become more widely available. Seems like many people/companies etc. are working furiously on this and some progress is being made.

As long as DF is alive and in his elder care home, I have to be very careful. It is probably inevitable that his home is affected, but I don’t want to be the cause. At this point I haven’t really been able to see past that.

Are you able to enter your DF's residence. We are on about weeks 6 of a total lockdown of NH...my SisIL Moms is already has mental wellbeing issues. has some dementia and regular visits from her 3 daughters kept her fairly stable and more important somewhat content. She's gone completely backwards as she only get to "talk" on the phone..which is not the same. and doesn't get any kind of mental or social feedback from other residents. They are confined to their rooms which is heartbreaking. Even with these restrictions and staff well checks, the number of NH with outbreaks continues to just rise and rise.
Somewhere around 85% of COVid deaths here are from these residents. And no doubt the NH will be the very last things to open to visitors. Some of these oldsters will live past Corona but they will never be the same.

 

[audreyh1]

DF is under hospice care due to severe underweight and responds to his sitters very well. He has been oblivious to the world outside and had already been bedridden well before this happened so was already confined to his room. He does not have dementia, just tuning out most things I assume as part of late stage “letting go”.

 

[HF63]

The cost that this virus is putting the country in, I like a see a world wide plan to study and develop vaccines or treatments. We do not need jet fighters that cost 16 billion when one virus has all of us luck in our houses.

 

[cooch96]

OP, This is a difficult topic to broach, but thank you for doing so.

If there’s never a vaccine, then the at-risk folks very well may have a difficult future. Hiding in their living rooms, having groceries delivered, and only venturing out briefly under cover of mask and face shield may be reasonable and prudent measures for them forever.

The good news is the fatality rate for the young and healthy approaches zero. They can take prudent measures when the virus flares up in their region and live mostly unfettered otherwise.

I’m also optimistic this virus will mutate to something less malign rather than something worse. The fact that humans, and advanced species of life forms in general, have survived for millions of years suggests viruses trend towards being less effective, not more.

And herd immunity. That’ll be another tool in the human toolbox.

 

[jcfradio]

If there is no vaccine, wouldn't there eventually be herd immunity? In fact, now that I think of it, given the reported number of people who have had it and survived (some asymptomatic and some with flu-like symptoms and some hospitalized) it sounds like there may be herd immunity before there is a vaccine.

Like the assumption that we will get a vaccine for COVID-19, this is another key assumption that we are hoping to get us through the pandemic. There has been limited work to date to prove that having COVID-19 and getting the antibodies protects you against future infections. It happens with other viruses so we assume that it is the same with COVID, but alas, we don't know for sure. There is just so much we are learning on the fly about this disease. I do hope that the medical folks working around the world will be able to get us more answers soon, but until then, it is on with my mask, and stay 6 feet away from others.

 

[OldShooter]

... There’s never been a coronavirus vaccine, so there may not be with this Covid-19. Then what? ...

IMO there are so many hypotheticals out there that you can pick whichever one you want to worry about. Or pick several if you like.

Me? I'm just going to wait and see. I don't know nuthin' and I don't think anyone else does either. So I'm not worrying.

 

[GravitySucks]

I keep seeing this "There's never been a Corona virus vaccine" but Parvo is a Corona virus and my dog gets that shot every other year.
I'm still expecting it to die off before a vaccine is approved.

 

[Midpack]

On the bright side, evidently the 2003-2004 SARS died off, with virtually no new cases since 2004. Maybe we’ll be so lucky again?

 

[LRDave]

The virus is calling the shots. Humans hate not feeling in control more than just about anything else.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

When the Spanish Flu arrived (H1N1) there was no vaccine. At that point in time, they didn't even know what a virus was!

Life went on. Yes, 1918-1919 was a ROUGH time. The first mention of influenza was in April 1918. The second wave arrived September 1918, the third wave in early/Spring 1919.

But by the summer of 1919, it was over. The people who caught it and were going to die, did. The people who caught it and didn't die had antibodies which given enough cases resulted in herd protection properties. There was no cure, no anti-viral treatments...and yet life went on.

Not only did life go on, but the 20's are known as the roaring twenties for a reason. Peoples behavior radically changed from the prior decade during prohibition. A booming economy, and a "party on Garth" kind of attitude. New attitudes, morals, styles of clothing and dance. Almost as if they were celebrating?

 

[statsman]

I keep seeing this "There's never been a Corona virus vaccine" but Parvo is a Corona virus and my dog gets that shot every other year.
I'm still expecting it to die off before a vaccine is approved.

The OP's linked article mentions why that might still not help:

Even if researchers do develop a COVID-19 vaccine that’s effective at protecting animals, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will do the same for people. “One of the things that they say in science is that ‘mice lie, and monkeys don’t tell the truth,’” Roper says. “You can get something that works in mice, you can get something that works in monkeys, and it still might not work in humans.” So any animal tests will have to be followed by trials to demonstrate that the vaccines are safe for people to use, followed by trials to see if they protect against infection.

 

[audreyh1]

Read The Great Gatsby and other books by F. Scott Fitzgerald, Hemingway.“The Lost Generation” - the attitudes of young people coming out of WWl. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Generation

 

[ivinsfan]

Even is there is a vaccine remember flu shots are made for specific strains of flu each year and even then offer spotty protection.

 

[cyber888]

Then, man it out .. strengthen your immunity system (sleep well, exercise, eat right, vitamins, breathing exercise, cardio) and develop anti-bodies.

There are quite a few posts from people here saying they’re planning to (effectively) self isolate until there’s a vaccine in “12-18 months.” There’s never been a coronavirus vaccine, so there may not be with this Covid-19. Then what?

I well understand this presents a serious problem for those vulnerable due to underlying health issues.

We won’t be first in line for restaurants or theater when the time comes, but we are not planning to self isolate, as so many credible sources suggest most of us (70%?) will be exposed eventually no matter what.

There have been several articles on the difficulties re: a Covid-19 vaccine. Excerpts from just one:


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/will-there-be-a-coronavirus-vaccine-maybe-not.html

 

[Midpack]

When the Spanish Flu arrived (H1N1) there was no vaccine. At that point in time, they didn't even know what a virus was!

Life went on. Yes, 1918-1919 was a ROUGH time. The first mention of influenza was in April 1918. The second wave arrived September 1918, the third wave in early/Spring 1919.

But by the summer of 1919, it was over. The people who caught it and were going to die, did. The people who caught it and didn't die had antibodies which given enough cases resulted in herd protection properties. There was no cure, no anti-viral treatments...and yet life went on.

Not only did life go on, but the 20's are known as the roaring twenties for a reason. Peoples behavior radically changed from the prior decade during prohibition. A booming economy, and a "party on Garth" kind of attitude. New attitudes, morals, styles of clothing and dance. Almost as if they were celebrating?

Presumably we’re hoping to avoid another event like that.

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting almost 36 months from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time.[2] The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

 

[REWahoo]

Even is there is a vaccine remember flu shots are made for specific strains of flu each year and even then offer spotty protection.

[-]Remember also that there are multiple strains of influenza viruses that cause the flu (see CDC graphic below) while only one corona virus causing Covid-19 has been detected. This should mean a singe vaccine can be created to help us develop immunity to the disease without the complication of multiple strains.[/-]

Edit: Never mind.

I know diddly about this virus and should limit my comments to "+1" or "Oh, crap!". Too bad I lack enough self control to do so.

 

[Ian S]

Since a vaccine and developing herd immunity are essentially the same concept i.e. stimulating the immune system to produce antibodies that prevent subsequent infection by the virus, then if a vaccine proves to be impossible, then why would herd immunity be expected to work? I'm pretty confident that a vaccine will be developed that will at least prevent the worst symptoms of the disease and maybe it will require annual tweaks to keep on top of it but we already do that for the flu. I'm also confident that there will be drugs developed that will manage the disease if someone still gets infected by the virus. Time will tell.

 

[gozer]

We have come to accept so many things that are at least in part preventable. While horrible now, I assume something like this would become a new normal if no better option was at hand. Many seem to have already made that jump to acceptance or complacency.

Having said that, I personally believe a vaccine is likely in a year or two. But I also think we have added this virus and its future mutations to the list of things we get to deal with every year.

 

[Starsky]

From the paper today:

The World Health Organization on Saturday said that there was currently not enough evidence that a person who has recovered from covid-19 is immune from a second infection.

Herd immunity may be a pipe dream.

 

[gozer]

Remember also that there are multiple strains of influenza viruses that cause the flu (see CDC graphic below) while only one corona virus causing Covid-19 has been detected. This should mean a singe vaccine can be created to help us develop immunity to the disease without the complication of multiple strains.

There are many strains of SARS-Cov-2 already identified.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v2