Who’s Really At Risk of Dying From Covid-19

[braumeister]

I really enjoyed smoking, and probably would again. But after 36 years, I'm just not going back to it.

Sounds a little like me. I smoked a pack a day before Vietnam and over 2 packs a day afterward. They were cheap back then, so why not.

I knew it was bad for me, and tried to quit so many times I lost count. But it's horribly addictive, as any smoker knows.

When I finally managed to do it, I was a very happy camper. That was 47 years ago. About a month after I quit, I found a half pack in the pocket of a jacket, and lit one up just out of pure curiosity. The effect was the same as the first one I ever smoked, so I immediately put it out and never experimented again.

But I do find it a bit odd to read about this when the highest death rates seem to have been in the countries with the highest rates of smoking.

 

[Brat]

The nicotine is the addictive element but smoking damages the lung tissues. Maybe wear a nicotine patch if nicotine is protective.

 

[Brat]

I listened to the Swedish epidemiologist today as that country hasn't locked down. The interview included death data as a % of the population for Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Italy, and I think, Spain. I know that Norway locked down but Denmark had a limited lockdown for vulnerable residents. Death rates were, in order, Norway (lowest), Denmark, Sweden, then Italy & Spain. The epidemiologist said that most of their deaths are in care homes.

What I know about Denmark and Sweden is that a high % of their retirees live in continuous care communities, their residents are in generally good health, and they have national health care for all residents.

I think what made the difference in Sweden vs Italy and Spain is that their hospitals were better prepared to care for those who became sick. Another factor could be that they don't have the street density in any of their cities.

 

[Dtail]

I listened to the Swedish epidemiologist today as that country hasn't locked down. The interview included death data as a % of the population for Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Italy, and I think, Spain. I know that Norway locked down but Denmark had a limited lockdown for vulnerable residents. Death rates were, in order, Norway (lowest), Denmark, Sweden, then Italy & Spain. The epidemiologist said that most of their deaths are in care homes.

What I know about Denmark and Sweden is that a high % of their retirees live in continuous care communities, their residents are in generally good health, and they have national health care for all residents.

I think what made the difference in Sweden vs Italy and Spain is that their hospitals were better prepared to care for those who became sick.

So far, the death rate per 1m is still higher in Sweden than the USA, although it is close.

 

[6miths]

Definitely there were hospitals that were overwhelmed. When caregivers are using single machines to ventilate more than one person then you are overwhelmed.

Source? I find tons of articles about the concept, nothing about it actually happening.

I'll take the word of colleagues in several NYC and Detroit hospitals who are now some of the true experts on the clinical course of the condition. I would think that the epidemiology of the virus in densely packed population centers not taking fairly extraordinary measures is now pretty evident. It appears to be a highly contagious which is very nasty virus in certain populations and potentially in any given individual.

 

[6miths]

So far, the death rate per 1m is still higher in Sweden than the USA, although it is close.

Give it a bit longer. The US deaths/million is rising more quickly than Sweden's at this point. Most of western Europe was hit earlier and perhaps harder due to gatherings related to ski holiday season and Champions League football in Italy and Spain. Time will tell of course but other than Thanksgiving/Christmas and Spring Break, summer is the big vacation time in North America.

 

[Winemaker]

The nicotine is the addictive element but smoking damages the lung tissues. Maybe wear a nicotine patch if nicotine is protective.

I mentioned this before; nicotine is used as a super strong organic insecticide. No big surprise that it might kill a virus, fungus, mold or bug.

 

[Midpack]

So far, the death rate per 1m is still higher in Sweden than the USA, although it is close.

Comparing a country relying on lockdown (US) versus a country with limited lockdown (Sweden) is apples and oranges. Sweden may have made a bad choice, but we won’t know until the final stats are known. If herd immunity proves beneficial, Sweden may be way ahead of the US. If so they’ve avoided the economic damage we’ve already incurred - eventually that’ll be very important for all. They may have one peak and we may have a second, third wave. We simply don’t know but comparing now isn’t at all conclusive.

 

[6miths]

Comparing a country relying on lockdown (US) versus a country with limited lockdown (Sweden) is apples and oranges. Sweden may have made a bad choice, but we won’t know until the final stats are known. If herd immunity proves beneficial, Sweden may be way ahead of the US. They may have one peak and we may have a second, third wave. We simply don’t know but comparing now isn’t at all conclusive.

This is true of course. Deaths are being counted differently in different countries as well. But even within a country it is clear that numbers are not entirely accurate. It is very unlikely that there are less deaths from the virus on Saturday/Sunday but in many countries there is a clear trend in reporting that makes it look this way.

 

[RAE]

Metabolic syndrome, obesity are big risk factors for COVID-19 mortality

Interesting article written by a European cardiologist on the strong link between COVID-19 mortality and poor metabolic health. It is sad that only 12% of Americans are considered to be metabolically healthy, and over 60% of both the U.S. and British populations are now either overweight or obese. It is believed that the chronic inflammation that often comes with obesity and poor metabolic health is directly linked to cytokine storms that produce the respiratory distress often seen in very ill COVID-19 patients.

https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/article-of-the-week/covid-19-and-the-elephant-in-the-room/

 

[P.S.]

Comparing a country relying on lockdown (US) versus a country with limited lockdown (Sweden) is apples and oranges.

Agree. Sweden’s population is, on the whole, healthier than the US. This is really really significant.
Also, the Swedish approach toward end of life and medical intervention is diametrically different than the US. Given how they, as a society, view and accept death, dying, and the elderly -> their approach very much makes sense and is the logical course of action for Sweden.
In the paradigm of “flatten the curve”, the curve is not simply # of dying, but # of deaths in the context of a medical system that is overwhelmed with dying and sick patients. But if the criteria of entering that medical system is high enough, then by definition, the system won’t be overwhelmed. In the US, medical interventions that are accepted, expected, and must be refusal documented in order not to occur, are not standard of care in Sweden.

 

[Sunset]

This is true of course. Deaths are being counted differently in different countries as well. But even within a country it is clear that numbers are not entirely accurate. It is very unlikely that there are less deaths from the virus on Saturday/Sunday but in many countries there is a clear trend in reporting that makes it look this way.

Really odd, isn't it.
I thought it was a staffing issue, nobody around to report the tally on the weekend.
I would expect a spike in Monday deaths, but generally it's been Tuesday, for the spike.

 

[Aerides]

In the US reporting, the weekends are always behind, and always catch up on Tuesdays, it's been that way pretty much all of April. Trend lines go down every weekend. To really see a trend, you need to compare the same day-of-the-week and go with a longer bumpier line.

 

[audreyh1]

Really odd, isn't it.
I thought it was a staffing issue, nobody around to report the tally on the weekend.
I would expect a spike in Monday deaths, but generally it's been Tuesday, for the spike.

I think there are simply reporting delays and for some reason it takes up until Tuesday to catch up.

 

[Gumby]

That's why I use a 4 day rolling average in my calculations. It smooths out the reporting irregularities so I can discern the actual underlying trend. Longer would probably be even better, but I'm too lazy to fix my spreadsheet to be, say, 7 days.