Who’s Really At Risk of Dying From Covid-19

[Midpack]

I keep seeing stories showing younger people dying of Covid-19, though literally only one I’ve seen was obviously in good health. I suppose media chooses to show younger victims to encourage us to stay home, or just to be provocative (click bait). This morning I saw a 54 yo schoolteacher passed away, that’s very sad, but by all appearance she was not in good health to begin with.

CDC stats seem to clearly show those with underlying health issues (heart disease, cancer, respiratory issues, diabetes, compromised immune systems, etc.) are the ones most at risk. The same people who are usually less able to fight off many serious illnesses. The elderly are at risk only because they typically have a higher incidence of underlying health issues and weaker immune systems. Not to be cavalier about it, but those of our generation in good health are much lower risk as well, not every 65+ yo is at high risk. And there’s a small group of healthy people with a genetic predisposition to suffer or die from Covid-19.

78% of deaths have been 65 plus. Over 90% of deaths have been 55 plus.

The young should stay at home until we sort out testing to avoid infecting others and overloading health care resources. But that doesn’t mean they’re at risk themselves. I wish the media would quit highlighting younger deaths, without noting they’re exceptions.

The risks are nowhere near equal for us all...

[Edit: Added a chart to show how different raw # of deaths is versus number of deaths per age group population. IMO we should focus on the second chart, the first is too easy to misunderstand.]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

[REWahoo]

This may be behind a paywall...

The coronavirus is killing about 1 in 10 hospitalized middle-aged patients and 4 in 10 older than 85 in the United States, and is particularly lethal to men even when taking into account common chronic diseases that exacerbate risk, according to previously unpublished data from a company that aggregates real-time patient data from 1,000 hospitals and 180,000 health-care providers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...4485a2-7bfe-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html

 

[easysurfer]

In some states, death rates from Covod-19 also very disproportional by race.

April 8, 2020 -- In states such as Michigan and Louisiana, as well as in cities like Chicago and Milwaukee, African American people are making up a disproportionately large number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, officials say.

In Chicago, African American people make up 30% of the population but account for 52% of the 4,600 confirmed cases, said Allison Arwady, MD, MPH, commissioner of the Chicago Department of Public Health, during a presss conference this week. African American people have also made up 72% of the 98 deaths in Chicago residents. The death rate for black Chicagoans is seven times the rate for the city’s white residents, she said.

The report said that COVID-19 may disproportionately affect communities of color and compound underlying health and economic disparities due to underlying health conditions, less health coverage and health care access, and socioeconomic factors.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200408/covid19-hitting-some-african-american-communities-harder

 

[Aerides]

Well I guess I'll just have to say I don't want to get it even if my risk of death is quite low. For many, living means 2-3 weeks of a brutal illness, including a brief hospital stay (or a period where they think they need to be in hospital). I've read enough first-person accounts of what it's like.

And your data (source?) is incomplete. There are at least 2 reports I've read of infants under 1 year old.

And how many people have some cardio vascular issue that they don't even know about? That hasn't manifested yet but would if they got Covid?

I guess we're all seeing the same data, and any one paying attention knows it's worse if you're old and unhealthy, less if you're not.

So what? It is the responsibility of the low-risk pool to take precautions to help reduce the risks for the high-risk pool. We are all in this together, imo.

 

[Bigdawg]

So what? It is the responsibility of the low-risk pool to take precautions to help reduce the risks for the high-risk pool. We are all in this together, imo.

Maybe? Last year (Feb 2019) I canceled my snowmobile trip to the in-laws (age 79 with compromised immune system) becasue I caught a bad cold a few days prior. I had no issue doing that.

But, maybe those who are at higher risk should stay at home so the rest of us can get on with our lives??

Don't know for sure but I suspect that when I become elderly maybe it will be my responsibility to wear a mask, not go into packed venues, etc...

I just don't know at this point.

 

[Midpack]

FWIW.

And my central point was it seems media is highlighting younger deaths disproportionately, and ignoring the role of underlying health issues. Does anyone have a comment on that?

Well I guess I'll just have to say I don't want to get it even if my risk of death is quite low. For many, living means 2-3 weeks of a brutal illness, including a brief hospital stay (or a period where they think they need to be in hospital). I've read enough first-person accounts of what it's like.

And your data (source?) is incomplete. There are at least 2 reports I've read of infants under 1 year old. I noted it was CDC data, through Apr 10, just added a link.

And how many people have some cardio vascular issue that they don't even know about? That hasn't manifested yet but would if they got Covid? The data includes those people by age, the incidence is relatively low.

I guess we're all seeing the same data, and any one paying attention knows it's worse if you're old and unhealthy, less if you're not. How do you know it’s not primarily underlying health issues, and not age alone? We know underlying health issues correlate with age.

So what? It is the responsibility of the low-risk pool to take precautions to help reduce the risks for the high-risk pool. We are all in this together, imo. You didn’t make it to my last paragraph? ”The young should stay at home until we sort out testing to avoid infecting others and overloading health care resources. But that doesn’t mean they’re at risk themselves. I wish the media would quit highlighting younger deaths, without noting they’re exceptions.”

 

[donheff]

As we inevitably start to roll back the lock-down we will all have to decide for ourselves how much precaution to take. I read everything I can and am reassured (to a degree) that at 71 with no underlying problems I can do a decent job of protecting myself for the short term with good hand hygiene and social distancing. I will need better information to decide when I can relax interactions with my kids and close friends. It is important that we get reliable scientific information on relative risk. Articles like the one ReWahoo posted from the Washington Post are helpful. Better would be a regular online update on best available information from the CDC. I don't want to rely on Facebook, or even the more reputable ERdotOrg, for this information.

 

[kcowan]

But, maybe those who are at higher risk should stay at home so the rest of us can get on with our lives??

Don't know for sure but I suspect that when I become elderly maybe it will be my responsibility to wear a mask, not go into packed venues....

I am 77 with COPD. Have been in self-isolation for 4 weeks, ordering in meals and groceries. So far so good!

I just don't know how long this will go on?!

 

[Red Badger]

As mentioned above, the "most at risk" age demographic is also a smaller proportion of the population....

I am a believer that the media as well as large swaths of the government are hyping the overall risk for their many and varied special interests. I am not denying we have a serious health issue, but suspect C-19 response will serve as a catalyst for many future health scares, legitimate or otherwise.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2019/

 

[Midpack]

This may be behind a paywall...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...4485a2-7bfe-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html

Shouldn’t that first chart be normalized for the overall population by age group The 55-64 cohort is much larger than all the older age groups, 85+ is relatively small to begin with. It would be a substantially different chart normalized, and more meaningful IMO.

 

[EastWest Gal]

What does "get on with our lives" mean?

Maybe? Last year (Feb 2019) I canceled my snowmobile trip to the in-laws (age 79 with compromised immune system) becasue I caught a bad cold a few days prior. I had no issue doing that.

But, maybe those who are at higher risk should stay at home so the rest of us can get on with our lives??

Don't know for sure but I suspect that when I become elderly maybe it will be my responsibility to wear a mask, not go into packed venues, etc...

I just don't know at this point.

Dr. Daniele Macchini, a physician from the hard-hit city of Bergamo, had this to say (translation by Silvia Stringhini):

“So be patient, you can’t go to the theatre, museums or the gym,” Macchini wrote. “Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.”

Who would you exterminate so you could get on with your life?

The following is a video created by a former patient of mine. It is not complete and will be submitted to the UN very soon:

https://www.facebook.com/nicholas.dobkin/videos/3714942105223045/

 

[ceciledian]

Maybe? Last year (Feb 2019) I canceled my snowmobile trip to the in-laws (age 79 with compromised immune system) becasue I caught a bad cold a few days prior. I had no issue doing that.

But, maybe those who are at higher risk should stay at home so the rest of us can get on with our lives??

Don't know for sure but I suspect that when I become elderly maybe it will be my responsibility to wear a mask, not go into packed venues, etc...

I just don't know at this point.

With so many cases suspected to be asymptomatic we all need to be responsible regardless of age. Hence the CDC recommendation for masks in public. As a person with a compromised immune system I don’t know when I will feel safe going out again especially if restrictions are lifted soon. I realize it’s my burden to bear but there are millions of us out there who are not elderly but still at a higher risk.

 

[Amethyst]

+1...The prospect of living with permanent lung damage does not thrill me one bit. And I'm aware of the death of a former co-worker, who was under 40, extremely fit and strong. It was determined that COVID-19 attacked his heart muscle.

This is an unknown baddie; doctors and scientists are still learning about it. Going out and about, seems to me, is the health-care equivalent of "Do you feel lucky, punk? Well, do you?"

Well I guess I'll just have to say I don't want to get it even if my risk of death is quite low. For many, living means 2-3 weeks of a brutal illness, including a brief hospital stay (or a period where they think they need to be in hospital). I've read enough first-person accounts of what it's like.

And your data (source?) is incomplete. There are at least 2 reports I've read of infants under 1 year old.

And how many people have some cardio vascular issue that they don't even know about? That hasn't manifested yet but would if they got Covid?

I guess we're all seeing the same data, and any one paying attention knows it's worse if you're old and unhealthy, less if you're not.

So what? It is the responsibility of the low-risk pool to take precautions to help reduce the risks for the high-risk pool. We are all in this together, imo.

 

[Gumby]

You don't need a nefarious conspiracy to explain it. Far too many people in our society are selfish and simply will not work for the common good. They will only take action if something will impact them personally. So you have young spring breakers in Florida saying, essentially, "Screw those old people, they're going to die of something else soon anyway. Don't get in the way of my party."

What we really need right now, for a relatively short time, is the best social isolation we can achieve. At least until we can beat the exponential spread and make sure the hospital system is not overwhelmed. That requires the cooperation of young and healthy people. Reminding them that they too can die from this disease aids in that effort (even if the actual odds are lower). To that end, I do not see any burning need to loudly proclaim that it is unusual for young and healthy people to succumb.

I would also remind those in lower risk groups that should the hospital fill up with COVID-19 patients, when you wreck your motorcycle, you may find that the care you receive is substandard. But that requires people to think things through, and the evidence suggests that most Americans, at least, are as unlikely to think hard as they are to care about the common good.

 

[Ronstar]

The whole covid-19 outbreak has etched one thing clearly in my mind.

How very important it is to take the best possible care of ourselves at all times. Eat well, exercise, get good preventative health care, don’t smoke, drink only in moderation, etc. Our lives depend on it.

Covid-19 (and many other life threatening illnesses) are exponentially dangerous to those who have existing medical conditions. Some of these medical conditions could be prevented by taking better care of ourselves.

So it’s up to us to save ourselves. The medical world can only do so much.

 

[Gumby]

The whole covid-19 outbreak has etched one thing clearly in my mind.

How very important it is to take the best possible care of ourselves at all times. Eat well, exercise, get good preventative health care, don’t smoke, drink only in moderation, etc. Our lives depend on it.

Covid-19 (and many other life threatening illnesses) are exponentially dangerous to those who have existing medical conditions. Some of these medical conditions could be prevented by taking better care of ourselves.

So it’s up to us to save ourselves. The medical world can only do so much.

It would be hard to argue with that.

 

[Midpack]

The whole covid-19 outbreak has etched one thing clearly in my mind.

How very important it is to take the best possible care of ourselves at all times. Eat well, exercise, get good preventative health care, don’t smoke, drink only in moderation, etc. Our lives depend on it.

Covid-19 (and many other life threatening illnesses) are exponentially dangerous to those who have existing medical conditions. Some of these medical conditions could be prevented by taking better care of ourselves.

So it’s up to us to save ourselves. The medical world can only do so much.

That’s one of my takeaways too. DW and I exercise almost daily, but we’re increasing that habit and adding others - more frequent, thorough hand washing, the use of hand sanitizer (I never used to), keeping distance from strangers, etc. And I’m rethinking theater, movies, concerts, restaurants.

 

[gauss]

The whole covid-19 outbreak has etched one thing clearly in my mind.

How very important it is to take the best possible care of ourselves at all times. Eat well, exercise, get good preventative health care, don’t smoke, drink only in moderation, etc. Our lives depend on it.

Covid-19 (and many other life threatening illnesses) are exponentially dangerous to those who have existing medical conditions. Some of these medical conditions could be prevented by taking better care of ourselves.

So it’s up to us to save ourselves. The medical world can only do so much.

Exactly!

I think society will get there eventually once the fear subsides.

BTW In my state, the total March 2020 deaths were much less (ie 30%) than the average of the prior few March(s).

 

[Sunset]

FWIW.

And my central point was it seems media is highlighting younger deaths disproportionately, and ignoring the role of underlying health issues. Does anyone have a comment on that?

Perhaps the media has a couple of motivations for highlighting younger folks deaths:

• Pressure from Health and gov't to help with the isolation message.
• The general view that to die young vs old is such a waste of a life.

 

[capjak]

The data reminds me that the Flu is also deadly.

 

[Ready]

I have not noticed the media overhyping the dangers of this disease to the young. I can think of two incidents where it got some attention. The first was during Spring Break in Florida where kids being interviewed made it clear that they were not going to let COVID interfere with their partying.

And the second was when the Governor of Florida made the argument that he wanted to reopen the schools because nobody under 25 has died from the virus (which was obviously wrong). And of course he ignored the fact that even if it were true, there are teachers, school administrators, cafeteria workers, and other personnel who have to work at those school who are over 25 years old. He did not seem to consider their safety when he made his statement, so it got a lot of attention.

 

[Midpack]

BTW In my state, the total March 2020 deaths were much less (ie 30%) than the average of the prior few March(s).

Isn’t that interesting!

 

[athena53]

Covid-19 (and many other life threatening illnesses) are exponentially dangerous to those who have existing medical conditions. Some of these medical conditions could be prevented by taking better care of ourselves.

So it’s up to us to save ourselves. The medical world can only do so much.

Yes! I've been preaching "prevent what's preventable" for ages. I know some of these conditions are partly luck and genetics. My mother, who was active, kept her weight at a healthy level and ate healthy, battled high BP from menopause onwards and was constantly apologizing about cooking without salt. I'm 67 and two weeks ago when I donated blood my BP was 94/59.

I've seen some interesting studies on COVID-19 co-morbidities and high BP and obesity are major factors. I'm still self-isolating and have no illusion that I'm immune.

 

[Freedom56]

I keep seeing stories showing younger people dying of Covid-19, though literally only one I’ve seen was obviously in good health. I suppose media chooses to show younger victims to encourage us to stay home, or just to be provocative (click bait). This morning I saw a 54 yo schoolteacher passed away, that’s very sad, but by all appearance she was not in good health to begin with.

CDC stats seem to clearly show those with underlying health issues (heart disease, cancer, respiratory issues, diabetes, compromised immune systems, etc.) are the ones most at risk. The same people who are usually less able to fight off many serious illnesses. The elderly are at risk only because they typically have a higher incidence of underlying health issues and weaker immune systems. Not to be cavalier about it, but those of our generation in good health are much lower risk as well, not every 65+ yo is at high risk. And there’s a small group of healthy people with a genetic predisposition to suffer or die from Covid-19.

78% of deaths have been 65 plus. Over 90% of deaths have been 55 plus.

The young should stay at home until we sort out testing to avoid infecting others and overloading health care resources. But that doesn’t mean they’re at risk themselves. I wish the media would quit highlighting younger deaths, without noting they’re exceptions.

The risks are nowhere near equal for us all...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

People who are overweight or obese have many underlying health issues and have a high risk of a poor outcome from COVID-19 regardless of age. People who smoke or vape are also at high risk of a poor outcome regardless of age.


"At first, data from China and Italy indicated that older people and those with underlying conditions — namely, heart disease, lung disease, and diabetes — were the most vulnerable. But then, in the US and UK, it became clear that young, healthy people could become seriously ill and die, too.

Now, as the virus hits the US hard, experts are bracing to see how it affects the unique population makeup here: With an obesity rate of 42% compared to China's 6% and Italy's 10%, some fear it could be a perfect storm.

"I worry that we are going to see a major increase in case fatality rates here in this country compared to what's been seen in some other countries in the world just because of that somewhat unique risk factor to us in the US," University of Minnesota infectious disease expert Dr. Michael Osterholm said in a March 30 interview with WCCO, a local radio station.

Jean-François Delfraissy, France's chief epidemiologist, issued a similar warning on April 8. "This virus is terrible, it can hit young people, in particular obese young people. Those who are overweight really need to be careful," Delfraissy told franceinfo radio.

That is why we're worried about our friends in America, where the problem of obesity is well known and where they will probably have the most problems because of obesity."

https://www.businessinsider.com/ame...ay-make-the-coronavirus-pandemic-worse-2020-4

 

[gerntz]

I keep seeing stories showing younger people dying of Covid-19, though literally only one I’ve seen was obviously in good health. I suppose media chooses to show younger victims to encourage us to stay home, or just to be provocative (click bait). This morning I saw a 54 yo schoolteacher passed away, that’s very sad, but by all appearance she was not in good health to begin with.

CDC stats seem to clearly show those with underlying health issues (heart disease, cancer, respiratory issues, diabetes, compromised immune systems, etc.) are the ones most at risk. The same people who are usually less able to fight off many serious illnesses. The elderly are at risk only because they typically have a higher incidence of underlying health issues and weaker immune systems. Not to be cavalier about it, but those of our generation in good health are much lower risk as well, not every 65+ yo is at high risk. And there’s a small group of healthy people with a genetic predisposition to suffer or die from Covid-19.

- I'll hazard the elderly are also more at risk simply due to lowered lung capacity than a 25 year old even w/o other underlying health issues; i.e., age alone is an underlying health issue.
- Healthy younger people need to get out & work, not stay home. Yes, need to stay away from at high risk folks.