Outlook for 2nd half 2022

[Dash man]

I’ve been following Chris Perras for a while and he provides sound perspective on the markets. He believes we may be past the worst with June 16 being the low for this year. Uses technical information and charts to back up his thoughts. No hard and fast predictions, but expects the year to end about even with the beginning of 2022, and better days ahead next year. Worth a look.
I do not use his firm and have no interest in promoting it.

https://youtu.be/VPn8B7DgZxM

 

[cyber888]

I’ve been following Chris Perras for a while and he provides sound perspective on the markets. He believes we may be past the worst with June 16 being the low for this year. Uses technical information and charts to back up his thoughts. No hard and fast predictions, but expects the year to end about even with the beginning of 2022, and better days ahead next year. Worth a look.
I do not use his firm and have no interest in promoting it.

https://youtu.be/VPn8B7DgZxM

I agree this will climb higher to the end of the year. The job numbers are good, and inflation is not going higher than 8.5%. Supply Chain reports are doing better so this should ease a bit.

 

[madatrub]

So what happens when inflation is still 6% by end of year?

 

[eytonxav]

I usually look at what happens in the Sept - mid-October timeframe before getting a warm fuzzy on how the year will close.

 

[pacergal]

Better days ahead sounds good to me!

 

[Dtail]

I would take even at the end of the year as a satisfactory result.

 

[Dash man]

I would take even at the end of the year as a satisfactory result.

Me too!

 

[MarieIG]

Much too soon for me to be reassured . . .

 

[MichaelB]

A different point of view

 

[braumeister]

Or, as someone smarter than I once put it:

The market will always do whatever it needs to do to prove the most people wrong.

 

[Chuckanut]

So what happens when inflation is still 6% by end of year?

Unless you can find a relatively risk free investment that pays at least 6% after taxes, you will have lost real value.

FYI, the value of you dollars will be cut in half in only 12 years at that rate of inflation. Not so good.

 

[GenXguy]

I agree this will climb higher to the end of the year. The job numbers are good, and inflation is not going higher than 8.5%. Supply Chain reports are doing better so this should ease a bit.

8.5% is still super high, even if it doesn't go higher!

 

[cyber888]

8.5% is still super high, even if it doesn't go higher!

True, but as I mentioned, supply chain bottlenecks are getting better, based on reports of shipping and trucking logistics. So, solving the Supply-side bottleneck could ease that up, especially with lower gas prices.

 

[flyingaway]

What are you going to do? Sell bonds and buy stocks?

 

[Montecfo]

I am dubious that we have seen the bottom, but I would be fine being wrong. If you look back at prior downturns, bear market rallies are common. I think beating inflation could be a longer slog than some expect. High inflation, even if lower than now, could make markets more volatile and stocks more sensitive to disappointments.

The other side is that steady growth will be at a premium, so I am highlighting quality in my stock selections.

Earnings have been better than expected, but companies have been cautious or downbeat with forecasts.

There is a great deal of uncertainty.

 

[jebmke]

I subscribe to the Yogi Berra school of forecasting.

 

[Dash man]

Here is the Part 2 of his second half of 2022 outlook:

https://youtu.be/rVNWhyd02OA

 

[GenXguy]

Here is the Part 2 of his second half of 2022 outlook:

https://youtu.be/rVNWhyd02OA

TL; DR? Is the world going to end?

 

[pb4uski]

I am dubious that we have seen the bottom, but I would be fine being wrong. If you look back at prior downturns, bear market rallies are common. I think beating inflation could be a longer slog than some expect. High inflation, even if lower than now, could make markets more volatile and stocks more sensitive to disappointments.

The other side is that steady growth will be at a premium, so I am highlighting quality in my stock selections.

Earnings have been better than expected, but companies have been cautious or downbeat with forecasts.

There is a great deal of uncertainty.

+1 I see inflation as a huge threat and think/hope that the Fed will stay the course on increasing interest rates to tame inflation even if it results in an economic slowdown or mild recession. As long as employment numbers are looking reasonable fighting inflation should be the number one priority.

 

[target2019]

Here is a summary biography for the guy:
https://oakharvestfg.com/who-we-are/investment-team/

I prefer to listen to Bogle.

 

[eytonxav]

I believe that in the early 80s the gummit changed the way it calculates inflation and suspect if they went back to the old methodology it would be much higher. The other aspect to looking at the second half of the year, bear market rallies are not uncommon, so things could certainly become worse, although I hope not.

 

[GenXguy]

I believe that in the early 80s the gummit changed the way it calculates inflation and suspect if they went back to the old methodology it would be much higher. The other aspect to looking at the second half of the year, bear market rallies are not uncommon, so things could certainly become worse, although I hope not.

Yeah, I definitely saw a lot higher inflation than the gummit figures, even before the inflation surge over the last couple years.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

If I had to bet, I would put my money on interest rates increasing even more, which usually means stocks will go down and a likely recession, until inflation is at the Fed's target of 2%, or at least a lot closer to 2% than we are now.

 

[target2019]

TL; DR? Is the world going to end?

His guess is that the bear is behind us. Lol, I guess that doesn't sound so great in real terms.

 

[volfan]

Unless you can find a relatively risk free investment that pays at least 6% after taxes, you will have lost real value.

FYI, the value of you dollars will be cut in half in only 12 years at that rate of inflation. Not so good.

Yes, our pensions with a 1% cost of living adjustment are going to be in the hole quickly if inflation stays like this! Not good at all. What a way to start retirement*