Outlook for 2nd half 2022

[OldShooter]

This member of the chattering class will either turn out to be right or some other member will be right. Of the chattering class, some members will be more skilled at getting clicks and/or at selling newsletters than others. But that is the objective of the exercise. None will admit that predicting the future is impossible.

 

[Markola]

I subscribe to the Yogi Berra school of forecasting.

+1. Every time I took action in my portfolio based on the implications of something I thought might/not happen, I was wrong. I finally learned to stop doing it, though I’m still fascinated by watching the economy turn and churn.

 

[Markola]

This member of the chattering class will either turn out to be right or some other member will be right. Of the chattering class, some members will be more skilled at getting clicks and/or at selling newsletters than others. But that is the objective of the exercise. None will admit that predicting the future is impossible.

100%. The system is just far too complex for prediction, though many keep trying. In hindsight we can see from the random distribution those forecasters who got things mostly right, and then we anoint them as talented and prescient, at least until their next predictions flop outside the random distribution.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

The really cool thing about the relationship between the Fed increasing interest rates 7 times and bond prices is that the relationship exists whether some people notice it in advance or not.

From the SEC - Interest rate risk — When Interest rates Go up, Prices of Fixed-rate Bonds Fall - ib_interestraterisk.pdf (sec.gov)