SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

[amt]

If you retire now (at S&P around 1100), your SWR should be about 6.21%, given the assumption that the 30 yr period 2000-2029 would not be worse than the worst 30 year period from the past.

Reason: If you had $1000000 at the beginning of 2000, FIRECalc will tell you that your SWR for 30yrs is 4.19%, using the defaults. If you stick to 4.19% withdrawal, at the end of 2003, your nest egg will be about $674000. Yet, you should be OK to continue withdrawing $41900, plus inflation adjustment til 2029. Hence, if you had $1mil at the end of 2003, then you should be able to withdraw $41900*1000000/674000=$62166, or about 6.22% annually, inflation adjusted. Of course, if you believe that 2000-2029 period will be worse than the worst we've ever experienced, then your personal SWR will be less than that.

 

[John Galt]

I must confess that I am a bit amused by all the
folks who think SS might disappear somehow. The
people at or near SS age are the biggest % voting
block. Plus, the way our government throws money around,
along with a pretty continuous trend toward
socialism, makes me think it more likely that older
people will receive more financial support in the future, not less.
Even George W. Bush spends it like there is no
tomorrow. Imagine what a real liberal might do.

John Galt