DSX - thanks for the tip!

[farmerEd]

Whomever mentioned it on this forum...thanks for the tip. Bought a bunch at $17.39 of it after doing my own checking and its up 24%+ since I bought on 3/30/07.

Any more bright ideas? Bring 'em on!

We need a stockpickers forum on this board - even though everybody here just owns index funds and never trades

 

[73ss454]

That would be Brewer. I also made a bunch on this one. It pays to listen to him when he speaks.

 

[Dawg52]

That would be Brewer. I also made a bunch on this one. It pays to listen to him when he speaks.

Yes, he knows his shipping stocks. EGLE has performed well too.

Brewer, you still like both?

 

[JPatrick]

You might want to check out these China stocks. XING & GIGM.
They have been good trading material (I've traded each about 10 times in the last 45 days) and I suspect they would make fine long term holdings as well.
Do lots of DD on these
And....all of that said, I'm not sure this is the very best time to be getting real adventurous in the market.

 

[Nords]

Brewer, you still like both?

I'm not Brewer but my EGLE cost basis is $12.64 and I managed to get some of the DSX secondary at $17 before picking up the rest at $17.40.

Companies & shipping agents are desperately throwing money at anyone who'll haul their stuff, but even so we're heading for nosebleed territory this morning. If you're not in it for the dividends then this would be a wonderful time to either :
1.) Cash in some cap gains, or
2.) Don't look for six months.

We had a similar experience with Splenda manufacturer Tate & Lyle this year. We've owned the shares for over two years, buying as low as $33/share, and last December they were over $60. I'd (somewhat arbitrarily) decided to sell half when the price doubled.

Then management admitted that their predictions were about 15% too rosy. The price cratered as low as $42/share, including a breathtaking $10/share in one week. (The CEO and a couple others promptly stepped up to the plate and started buying.) Yet nothing really changed (except their forecasts), their current performance is meeting their previous expectations (beating the snot out of their lowered forecasts), and the share price is back up above $50. I'm sure someone's going to start complaining about manipulation in the next few months...

 

[brewer12345]

Brewer, you still like both?

Yes, still holding both stocks. I want to hear what EGLE has to say in their earnings report tonight. I think they both have room to run, although DSX is cheaper. Both look like they will trend up to annual divs per share of $2.35 to $2.35 in the next quarter or two. If day rates for their ships keep surging, that number will go up.

I maintain a core position in both stocks, but I have been trading call options on both. Most recently, I bought September $20 calls on both for 80 to 90 cents a share when the markets fell apart in late February. I unloaded the EGLE calls a week or two ago for $3 a pop. I am vacillating over the DSX calls at the moment, but if I can get $3 a pop for them later this week, I will probably take it.

Note that both companies (especially DSX) tend to serially issue stock to finance the purchase of new ships. This tends to temporarily knock t he stock price down, although it usually recovers relatively quickly. Buying opportunity if you wanted more stock, otherwise something to grit your teeth through and ignore.

 

[winnie]

Yes, I've been wanting to thank Brewer for that tip for a while.

I also bought in the low 17s after his recommendation. Unfortunately I sold after only a 15% gain (selling too early -- my besetting sin) but really, I'm not going to complain about 15% gain in a couple of weeks.

so, thanks!

winnie

 

[eridanus]

I bought some June 20 calls a few weeks ago for .35. Thanks from me too, brewer.

 

[Brat]

I bought mine at $17.40, the same time as the rest of you. Did you notice that they have declared a $.50 dividend for the first quarter? The perfect investment for a kvinne.

 

[clifp]

I waited a bit before acting on Brewers TIP. Got a smallish position at 18.13, still an 18% gain in 5 weeks, plus a .50 dividend payment on May 23, is an awfully nice run up.

Eagle's number fell short .23 vs 29 consensus a revenue numbers were 4% short.
I may try to pick some up next time they sell stock.


Even ISM and OSM have recovered nicely I'm just slightly in the red with them.. Nice tips Brewer

 

[brewer12345]

Actually, EGLE made analyst consensus, ex the non-cash, non-dilutive charge and the gain on the sale of the ship. Kind of unimportant in the grand scheme of things anyway.

I am considering dumping the rest of my ISM, since it has rallied.

 

[Dawg52]

I am considering dumping the rest of my ISM, since it has rallied.

Already dumped mine. You can thank me for the run up as it always goes up after I sell.

 

[73ss454]

Funny Dog, I thought it was because I sold. At least I have some one to blame instead of myself.

 

[kumquat]

Just curious. While I suggested this some months ago, I'd hesitate to take my own advice. http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=9007.msg163045#msg163045

Anybody bite? I'm about to RE thanks to a large, long held position in POT. I think it has some potential yet, but DYODD.

 

[brewer12345]

Just curious. While I suggested this some months ago, I'd hesitate to take my own advice. http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=9007.msg163045#msg163045

Anybody bite? I'm about to RE thanks to a large, long held position in POT. I think it has some potential yet, but DYODD.

I didn't bite, but I am curious about something: how did you get comfy with an outsized exposure? I am struggling with this now, since I have an industry exposure closing in on 25% of my portfolio, and another closing in on 20%.

 

[Brat]

DSX is continuing to go up in a soft market.

 

[brewer12345]

No guarantees, of course , but historically DSX has moved up between the time the dividend is declared and the time it goes ex-div. After that, sometimes there is a correction.

Tomorrow there is a transportation conference that about every company in the industry is presenting at. Should be interesting to see if they say anything noteworthy.

 

[Brat]

Are you going? How about an executive summary or a link to the presentations.

 

[kumquat]

I didn't bite, but I am curious about something: how did you get comfy with an outsized exposure? I am struggling with this now, since I have an industry exposure closing in on 25% of my portfolio, and another closing in on 20%.

I'm not really comfy with it but it's only in the last 3 or 4 years that it exceeded 15%. I've been selling over the last 2 years but it keeps going up and it now about 30%. My rational is that it can drop $20 and I still have a huge gain and a SWR < 4%. That being said, I'll be reducing if it climbs much more.

 

[brewer12345]

Are you going? How about an executive summary or a link to the presentations.

Not going, unfortunately. I don't see the presentation on DSX' website, although I imagine they will submit it as an SEC doc.

But we got a couple of free goodies this morning. JP Morgan and Lazard initiated coverage on the company at "Buy". JPM target is $25, Lazard target is $26.