cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Yeah, but all that exercise will come in handy the next time someone pisses you off and you wanna punch them.
CPI, bald faced lies
- Thread starter RockOn
- Start date
it's not cooking the books, it's seasonally adjusted. the press release just hypes whatever numbers they want.
niman ranch or welshire farms is what you are looking for, but it's like $5 a pound
i saw one of the farmers at one of the NYC greenmarkets had some and will probably try it soon
I can see some inflation creeping into our budget in 2 categories in particular (as per Quicken):
gas: +27% in the last 12 months
groceries: +19% in the last 12 months
(with no obvious change in driving or eating habits)
Based on actual numbers for 2008 YTD, it looks like we might have reduced our gas consumption by 20-25% since the beginning of the year (it's not clear how we did it and we were not planning on reducing our gas consumption this year, but maybe we are just tired of being raped everytime we go to the pump). But groceries are on pace for another 16% increase this year.
The saving grace though is that gas and groceries represent only about 2.7% and 10% of our overall annual budget respectively, so a 27% increase in gas prices and 19% increase in grocery prices translate to only a 2.6% overall inflation rate for our annual budget, well within the 3% built into our plan (most other expenses in our budget have either remained the same or decreased over the past year and therefore our overall inflation rate is even lower than the 2.6% quoted). Plus an increase of only 1.7% in our gross annual income (we are still working) would be enough to keep up with inflation.
On the other hand my mom lives on a much smaller budget (SS benefits mostly) than we do and for her, food represents about 30% of her annual budget and gas about 7.5%. That gives her an inflation rate of 7.7% overall, but very little wiggle room to absorb that increase, and her SS benefits don't increase nearly enough each year to keep up with inflation.
gas: +27% in the last 12 months
groceries: +19% in the last 12 months
(with no obvious change in driving or eating habits)
Based on actual numbers for 2008 YTD, it looks like we might have reduced our gas consumption by 20-25% since the beginning of the year (it's not clear how we did it and we were not planning on reducing our gas consumption this year, but maybe we are just tired of being raped everytime we go to the pump). But groceries are on pace for another 16% increase this year.
The saving grace though is that gas and groceries represent only about 2.7% and 10% of our overall annual budget respectively, so a 27% increase in gas prices and 19% increase in grocery prices translate to only a 2.6% overall inflation rate for our annual budget, well within the 3% built into our plan (most other expenses in our budget have either remained the same or decreased over the past year and therefore our overall inflation rate is even lower than the 2.6% quoted). Plus an increase of only 1.7% in our gross annual income (we are still working) would be enough to keep up with inflation.
On the other hand my mom lives on a much smaller budget (SS benefits mostly) than we do and for her, food represents about 30% of her annual budget and gas about 7.5%. That gives her an inflation rate of 7.7% overall, but very little wiggle room to absorb that increase, and her SS benefits don't increase nearly enough each year to keep up with inflation.
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ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
I can imagine that a lot of retirees living on modest incomes anchored by Social Security and COLA-adjusted pensions were throwing things at their TV sets when they announced there was "no inflation" in February and that it's "only up 3-point-whatever percent" over the last 12 months.
OAG
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I was not sure the CPI was BS before, this morning did it. CPI flat and mega-billions go to BS (meaning Bear Sterns, the previous "BS" does not mean Bear Sterns). What a system.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Come on, its a good number with excellent transparency.
I'm also sure there is very little organizational influence. Most certainly if there are 4-5 ways to factor something and half of them give higher inflationary figures than the other half, I know they'd pick the numbers that would make almost everyone in almost every part of the government upset. You know, all things being equal.
Isnt it amazing how the feds can spin on a dime to bail out a financial firm, but we struggle to put money into education, health care, food and shelter for the poor, the health of social security/medicare, and large portions of a major US city are still in ruins three years after a storm?
I'm also sure there is very little organizational influence. Most certainly if there are 4-5 ways to factor something and half of them give higher inflationary figures than the other half, I know they'd pick the numbers that would make almost everyone in almost every part of the government upset. You know, all things being equal.
Isnt it amazing how the feds can spin on a dime to bail out a financial firm, but we struggle to put money into education, health care, food and shelter for the poor, the health of social security/medicare, and large portions of a major US city are still in ruins three years after a storm?
ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
You can pay for those with the [-]Chinese Manufacturer Full Employment Act[/-] "stimulus package" money...
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
Government is slow (I should know). And in the case of Katrina recovery, I don't expect any more will ever be delivered to those who need it than already has, since we are yesterday's news by now.
The Federal Reserve is not government exactly, though, even if we call them the feds. The Federal Reserve is a private company (but you knew that). Still, their speed was mind-boggling. Reminds me of that commercial for DSL, with the window washers dropping down the side of a building.... "THAT fast!"
Notmuchlonger
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Election year might have something to do with the speed of light they are moving at.
barbarus
Recycles dryer sheets
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Maybe not to ERF bloggers Nords, but rising energy costs are devastating (or at least severely crimping) the lives of the "Walmart people". Just the fact that there are so many of them makes this situation significant.
I had to leave for awhile, I had to make some money to pay my kids tuition and my health insurance. Before I talk about the house price increase, let me add this. Our state tried to pass a bill to limit tuition increases to 9% a year at our public colleges. I'm not up to date on the outcome but I read it was likely to fail because the schools wouldn't accept it.
On the house price increase I did not mean to say house prices typically tripled every 5 years. Typically they barely keep up with inflation. What I say is they doubled or tripled in the last 5 years (it might have been 6 or so, I didn't look it up). I can get some Case-Shiller stats to back that up. That is a house price increase of 100% plus. Tripled might be had to find in the stats, doubling would not be. What was the reported CPI increase in the last 5 years? 16% from my source. That's about a 5 to 1 factor on that item. Can you buy that? I have the sources for Case-Shiller if you need them. Find for me anything in the world that went 5 to 1 the other way to make up for that. Want to try a few more? (Of course I realize house prices do not count.)
P.S. We could try housing (which we just did), utilities, food, healthcare/medical, transportation, taxes, and insurance. You know, just the things most of us actually have to buy. It might take me awhile to find the stats but I'm sure they are not going to average anywhere near 16% over 5 years. I left out computers, TV's, and clothing; the things often discussed as going down, because they are minor items on my list.
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Running_Man
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Good beer seems to cost about $1-$1.50 more a six pack this year than last year. Thats pissing me off...
Need I say more. What's that, about 15% in a year. Sorry, good beer doesn't count either, there's always some cheap swill you should have switched to. If you were rational that is.
We just bought a laptop for $800 that would have been $1500 a few years ago. Neighbor just bought a 32" flatscreen LCD similar to the one we have except he paid $900 instead of $1400 like we did two years ago.
I've also noticed that with the gas rise smaller cars are more common again. Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, Hyundai Accent etc. are taking over much of the former SUV turf.
I've got no idea whether things like car prices and consumer electronics fit into CPI but if they do I'm curious how much of an offsetting effect they have?
I've also noticed that with the gas rise smaller cars are more common again. Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, Hyundai Accent etc. are taking over much of the former SUV turf.
I've got no idea whether things like car prices and consumer electronics fit into CPI but if they do I'm curious how much of an offsetting effect they have?
That is the source, thanks for putting it up. We can pick it apart. Want me to start? You can probably see through it yourself.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I dunno. You'll have to ask me later when I've had a couple of them. I'm way better at math after 2 beers. At least I think I am.
When I have to buy a TV or computer every week, and when the ones I really want dont cost $3000 and $1200, respectively, then they count.
I suppose in the modern consumer lifestyle where you buy mature electronic products hand over fist, have $30k in credit card debt, expense half your meals out, have your health care paid for, etc...its all good.
Everything you wanted to know about manipulation of reported government statistics like CPI:
Shadow Government Statistics » Blog Archive » 4. Consumer Price Index
Shadow Government Statistics » Blog Archive » 4. Consumer Price Index
Yeah I hit that zone too. For me some skill areas are far more open-ended with alcohol like with bowling or dancing, but things like giving a toast or speaking a foreign language I've studied there is definitely a 2-3 beer sweet spot where I'm gold but if care isn't taken I'll quickly slide back quickly as consumption continues.
i think what happened is in the last few years a lot of fish farms started up production. whole foods has a lot of farmed salmon now compared to a few years ago and most of the shrimp is now farmed from thailand instead of the real thing
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Mmmm MMMM! Fish filled with parasites packed into tiny polluted tanks!
Fortunately they taste just as good as wild caught!
http://www.fishwelfare.net/projects/pics/catfishtank.jpg
Fortunately they taste just as good as wild caught!
http://www.fishwelfare.net/projects/pics/catfishtank.jpg
Been there, done that. John Williams doesn't cut it with this crowd. His numbers do seem over the top. If he is correct in that he is calculating CPI like it was done in the 70's that would be significant. Either inflation was not really 12% in the late 70's, or it is really 12% now. Can't have it both ways. That is an amazing thing for me to ponder.
