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-   -   Holy cr@p, the sky is falling... (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/holy-cr-p-the-sky-is-falling-38581.html)

vickko 09-09-2008 02:52 PM

Holy cr@p, the sky is falling...
 
...my FIRE depends on the TSE and it fell another 500 points today.

I now need to die 3 years earlier :-(

Best to hunker down, enjoy my classes, and hobbies, until brighter skies. I can't add to the camera collection, but I can shot more of my stockpile of film.

How are you weathering this?

Vick

statsman 09-09-2008 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vickko (Post 711438)
How are you weathering this?

Not very well. I am now in the middle of my second major cold/flu this summer, and much of it can be traced to the stress of watching our early retirement dreams go out the window.

The one positive is that I switched us to a very conservative 20/80 two months ago. So, rather than suffer through massive bleeding on any one day, we are just going through the pain of a thousand paper cuts.

haha 09-09-2008 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vickko (Post 711438)
I now need to die 3 years earlier :-(

We can help with this. See the bacon threads. Also, be sure to put heavy cream on most everything that is not bacon. :)

Ha

Zathras 09-09-2008 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vickko (Post 711438)
How are you weathering this?

Just fine, my income stream has been unaffected (actually it has gone up in the last 3 months as companies announce dividend increases).
I just wish I had more cash available to DCA in a bit more than I am.

retire@40 09-09-2008 03:21 PM

Try to remember this feeling next year at this time.

I predict when the market rebounds, you won't remember the pain unless you really try.

Razor 09-09-2008 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retire@40 (Post 711451)
Try to remember this feeling next year at this time.

I predict when the market rebounds, you won't remember the pain unless you really try.

What is going to cause it to rebound? More government bailouts?

vickko 09-09-2008 03:32 PM

reasons...
 
....consumers settle down and regain confidence
....new gov't in both Canada and USA restore optimism
....real estate values settle down. Not up, not down, just right, whatever that is
....people get back to the business of "get on with it", instead of pessimistic panic

That should bring order back to things.

Zathras 09-09-2008 03:33 PM

Don't know, could be alternative energy stocks, could be the weeding out of a bunch of weaker companies/stocks, a more solid fiscal environment.
If I knew exactly what was going to cause it to rebound I would be incredibly wealthy;)
Perhaps retire@40 does know;)

cute fuzzy bunny 09-09-2008 03:45 PM

I see no reason to hold the heavy cream ON the bacon. Even though it drives Ladelfina nuts, my Carbonara recipe includes bacon, cheese, cream, and so forth. They go deliciously with each other.

If you're an accumulator that hasnt retired yet, this is all good news. If you have cash, bueno. Next month everything bounces back.

If you're an early retiree and this is driving you batshit, you didnt implement a portfolio consistent with your risk tolerance...so after next month when things return to normal, fix that before we revisit this scenario in 3-5 more years.

In the meanwhile, everyone have a cocktail and watch something fun on tv this evening, then have a round of massive, screaming sex, and forget about this BS for about 30-45 days.

Notmuchlonger 09-09-2008 04:13 PM

And people were worried about all the boomers retiring at once ;)

LOL

Razor 09-09-2008 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vickko (Post 711455)
....consumers settle down and regain confidence
....new gov't in both Canada and USA restore optimism
....real estate values settle down. Not up, not down, just right, whatever that is
....people get back to the business of "get on with it", instead of pessimistic panic

That should bring order back to things.

Or
...... Consumers, so deep in debt realize they can't continue spending at previous levels. Confidence fades.
.....New governments with the same old spend and borrow programs make things even worse. They made too many promises they can not keep.
..... Real estate values plummet due to the millions of foreclosures, interest rates resetting, and surplus of homes on the market
.....people get on with it and do the best they can with ever increasing health care costs, energy prices, inflation, layoffs, downsizing, reduction in wages and benifits.......
I do believe it will get worse before it gets better. Not a pessimist, just a realist. I hope I am wrong.

W2R 09-09-2008 04:25 PM

Hey, yesterday it went up, and today it went down - - it will all balance out in the long run.

Don't forget to smell the roses along the way (or watch the squirrels). 8)

Notmuchlonger 09-09-2008 04:30 PM

I hear roses grow great in bone meal. So something had to die for them to do well ;)

FIREd 09-09-2008 04:32 PM

We are weathering this by taking advantage of a lower stock/RE market. Our net income is up more than $8K from last year, yet we are slashing our expenses. Last year we spent about $69K for the entire year, this year I project the final number to be between $61K and $63K. So it gives us an extra $14K-$16K to invest. My wife didn't even noticed I had made some budget cuts, so me think that I could probably tighten the belt a little bit more, heh heh heh >:D

slouch 09-09-2008 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny (Post 711467)
Next month everything bounces back.
<SNIP>
forget about this BS for about 30-45 days.

What is the thought process behind 30-45 days? Are you basing this solely on seasonal trends - e.g., is it just that the historically worst month of the year will be over and then the usual xmas rally starts to kick in?

Thanks

CuppaJoe 09-09-2008 04:47 PM

TSE, thanks that's my new word for today. Maybe you could change it to TSP, add sugar, cook with bacon wrapped in chocolate with a side of mac and cheese. Lemon custard pie for dessert.

One day games are for Monopoly on holidays. Forget the railroads, put up all the hotels you can.

I got my financial advice today on a balloon at WaMu, must have been left over from the '80s: Don't worry, be happy. Really, with a big :D

2B 09-09-2008 04:48 PM

I'm not even for the year
 
I feel that my post several months ago stateing I was even for the year caused this downdraft. I would now like the Wall Street god to accept my penance and end this unholy drop. I confess my offense to the WS god. :angel:

Oh well, I've lived through worse. I do find myself calculating how long I can live on my fixed income/cash portion of my portfolio. Also, I calculate how much I can spend if I want to make it to 85 without touching my equities. What's scary is how much I can spend over the next 28 years if only my LTC will depend only on my equities.

For the record I used to dream about having as much as my portfolio fell today. I'm down 9.1% YTD and that's over 2 years of living expenses. The good news is my family doesn't have a great longevity. ;D

brewer12345 09-09-2008 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slouch (Post 711487)
What is the thought process behind 30-45 days? Are you basing this solely on seasonal trends - e.g., is it just that the historically worst month of the year will be over and then the usual xmas rally starts to kick in?

Thanks

{Moderator edit}

bpp3 09-09-2008 04:50 PM

Huh? The Dow is down 280, after going up 290 the day before. So the two-day net is +10. And this is bad because...?

Added: Oops, not the Dow, the TSX. Well, is it still higher than it was two years ago...

(Reading for comprehension: -10 points.)

Leonidas 09-09-2008 05:20 PM

I'm channeling Uncle Mick here: Stop watching the market - it will only mess with your head. Turn off CNBC, log off of Quicken, and go have some fun.


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