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-   -   Are we in or nearing the capitulation stage of bear market? (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/are-we-in-or-nearing-the-capitulation-stage-of-bear-market-38807.html)

shotgunner 09-17-2008 10:01 AM

Are we in or nearing the capitulation stage of bear market?
 
I am wondering if this week is the "panic" or capitulation stage of a bear market resulting in some bargain buying opportunities. It seems the crowd is running for the door. Scary but I am trusting FireCalc.

2B 09-17-2008 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shotgunner (Post 715735)
I am wondering if this week is the "panic" or capitulation stage of a bear market resulting in some bargain buying opportunities. It seems the crowd is running for the door. Scary but I am trusting FireCalc.

I am sure we're in the latter stages of capitulation unless, of course, it keeps going down. If it does, remember I told you to sell everything now before it's too late.

Note: I'm practicing to be an investment advisor. ;D

Unfortunately, this panic has a mind of its own. No telling what will happen.

dex 09-17-2008 10:26 AM

one thing to look at is volume on the s&p. A huge spike in volume on a down day might indicate a bottom.

2B 09-17-2008 10:33 AM

I've seen many market bottoms without the classic "capitulation" -- massive drop with massive volume followed by a turnaround. I think the whole thing isn't anything but an urban legend. I know CNBC and other financial talking heads like to keep talking about it.

FinanceDude 09-17-2008 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B (Post 715758)
I've seen many market bottoms without the classic "capitulation" -- massive drop with massive volume followed by a turnaround. I think the whole thing isn't anything but an urban legend. I know CNBC and other financial talking heads like to keep talking about it.

I could find any homeless person on any street in America and they would have better knowledge than the CNBC folks.......:p

2B 09-17-2008 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinanceDude (Post 715759)
I could find any homeless person on any street in America and they would have better knowledge than the CNBC folks.......:p

But the typical homeless woman isn't anywhere near as cute as the CNBC "money babes." ;D

This thread has been officially derailed.

cute fuzzy bunny 09-17-2008 10:43 AM

Just wait for the s&p 500 to cross the 200 day moving average for about 5-7 business days, then throw your remaining cash at it.

Next month, maybe six weeks.

FIRE'd@51 09-17-2008 10:53 AM

My first boss on Wall Street used to say "Nobody rings a bell at a market bottom".

FinanceDude 09-17-2008 10:56 AM

"Fortunes have been made by selling too soon"..........:)

Leonidas 09-17-2008 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIRE'd@51 (Post 715772)
My first boss on Wall Street used to say "Nobody rings a bell at a market bottom".

Yep, but a lot of people do look back in later years and say "I wish I had bought back then." As soon as I finish my time machine I am on my way to wealth beyond my dreams!

FinanceDude 09-17-2008 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B (Post 715740)
I am sure we're in the latter stages of capitulation unless, of course, it keeps going down. If it does, remember I told you to sell everything now before it's too late.

Note: I'm practicing to be an investment advisor. ;D

You're almost at "rookie in a bullpen" status as an investment advisor.......:)

cute fuzzy bunny 09-17-2008 10:59 AM

So, that means he charges a little extra because he's not burdened by years of unnecessary experience and can make the absolute best choices based on todays data alone?

2B 09-17-2008 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny (Post 715780)
So, that means he charges a little extra because he's not burdened by years of unnecessary experience and can make the absolute best choices based on todays data alone?

Data? I don't need no stinkin' data. ;D

MichaelB 09-17-2008 11:03 AM

From a Consuelo Mack Wealthtrack interview with Peter Bernstein in Oct '05. The emphasis at the end is mine, but I think it is particularly appropriate. It is definitely not the time to bet the ranch nor cash out. It may be an opportunity to buy something of quality that is suffering in price. Maybe it's time to rethink buy and hold...

Quote:

CONSUELO MACK Now, you've been an early proponent of the theory that stocks and bonds -- stocks, especially, I think -- are going to deliver low returns. After the terrific returns we saw in the 80s and 90s that essentially we're talking about lower returns going forward. How low, and why do you feel that way?
PETER BERNSTEIN: How low? Who knows? Just not high. One thing bothers me about this view, that there's very little opposition to it.
CONSUELO MACK: And it's not going to be with our other two guests either.
PETER BERNSTEIN: And that's dangerous. But it's very hard to make the case that returns will be, say, after inflation, more than 6% to 7%. That's the most optimistic expectation. We start from a point where we've had a very -- a huge bull market in the 1990s, only part of which has been given back. Equities are still valued at historically high prices. Interest rates, I don't have to tell you, are historically low. And so you start from there, and there you are. I think something very important to think about this, that a period of low returns, you think, well, every year maybe we'll have 4%, 5%. It doesn't work that way. Low returns result from high volatility. You have a big year, and then a bad year, and the pattern of low return periods is high volatility, not low volatility. It's a scary time
Michael

Tempesta 09-17-2008 11:03 AM

This market is definitely not noob-friendly :confused:

2B 09-17-2008 11:08 AM

Going back to my technical analysis phase I looked at all of the secret methods to correctly identify when the market bottoms. Nothing is reliable except with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Then it's easy to see which technical analysis method you should have followed.

rs0460a 09-17-2008 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B (Post 715788)
Going back to my technical analysis phase I looked at all of the secret methods to correctly identify when the market bottoms.

Ooh! Can I hire you as my "investment advisor" of choice? I'm interested in "secret methods"... :rolleyes:\

- Ron

huskerblue 09-17-2008 11:16 AM

Had a spasm of fear this morning = almost sold "a little bit" to "feel better". Ticker symbol entered, number of shares entered, finger hovering over the "place order" button and then pulled back from the edge and canceled.

I hope that means the bottom is near. :p

rs0460a 09-17-2008 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huskerblue (Post 715797)
Had a spasm of fear this morning = almost sold "a little bit" to "feel better". Ticker symbol entered, number of shares entered, finger hovering over the "place order" button and then pulled back from the edge and canceled.

I hope that means the bottom is near. :p

No - it means that you are a very intelligent indivudial to not lock in your losses (IMHO ;D )...

- Ron

FinanceDude 09-17-2008 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B (Post 715788)
Going back to my technical analysis phase I looked at all of the secret methods to correctly identify when the market bottoms. Nothing is reliable except with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Then it's easy to see which technical analysis method you should have followed.

I think we need a fine fellow like you on the board of AIG or Lehman brothers...........;)


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