Is the market *really* DOWN?

E

ERD50

Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now? ;)

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now? ;)

-ERD50
Click to expand...
Yeahhhhhh,but...

That would be all well and good if I hadn't bought anything above the 900 level. Unfortunately, not so. :mad:

Nice try though! :D
 
ERD50 said:
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now? ;)

-ERD50
Click to expand...

Is that single malt Scotch you've been drinking all morning? :D
 
if you own DXD, SDS and QID then down is the new up
 
ziggy29 said:
"Down is up"? Is this the financial equivalent of Orwellian Doublespeak?
Click to expand...

That depends on the definition of "is". :D

Personally, I sort of agree. I've been saying for years that the market was severely overvalued, and that we were facing either years of very low returns, or something like what's been happening this year. IMHO we're about where we should be. I'd rather (since I have available cash) be facing low prices with normal growth opportunities than having retired into years of very low or negative growth. So lets get to investing! yee-haw!
 
And it's really not down 4.4 percent for the day right now because a loss of $400 is only 2.85 percent of the Dow's highest ever....
 
ERD50 said:
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now? ;)

-ERD50
Click to expand...

Dude, this is why you should NOT do crack before lunch. :)
 
Today it is REALLY down. As in "down a lot."
 
Some media stories cite weak earnings and slumping oil prices as fueling recession fears. A year ago, the rising price of oil was blamed, in part, for hurting the corporate bottom line. Now that dinosaur juice is dropping in price, it is again faulted. Are both correct?
 
5.05% yield on Yahoo finance - foooor Pssst Wellesley.

Ahem, ahem - pouring steady drizzly rain North of KC - just reminds me of the Norwegian widow in the old PacNW in her rain slicker by the mailbox waiting for the mailman to bring those dividend checks.

:rolleyes: :D :p :rant:

Yeah yeah yeah - I know even stay the course and hurry up just stand there gets old.

I need to quit looking - maybe send to Netflix for Singing in The Rain or something.

heh heh heh - so whadda think? Pats win ugly - they really do have a good football team or what? This patience stuff can get old.
 
ERD50 said:
And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?
But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.
So, the market is UP, right?
Feel better now? ;)
-ERD50
Click to expand...
you just can't argue with data.
I do feel better. TY! :D
 
It's funny how these swings don't phase me now - as I said in another thread lets hope the market stays down for awhile and stock up on deals.....I refuse to entertain that we are at a level that is acceptable however :) we are definately down! I am down about 6 years living expense in my stock funds - all this in less than a year.........:(
 
I can assure you, the market is not up if you bought into from 2006-2008 as I did. [moderator edit]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Gardnr said:
Yeahhhhhh,but...

That would be all well and good if I hadn't bought anything above the 900 level. Unfortunately, not so. :mad:

Nice try though! :D
Click to expand...

soupcxan said:
I can assure you, the market is not up if you bought into from 2006-2008 as I did. ...
Click to expand...

You have a point there - I was thinking in terms of a retiree pulling money out along the way, or just drawing dividends.

If you are accumulating, well sorry, you are right - it *did* suck for you! :eek:

You accumulators really want to see market dips while accumulating, and peaks that pass quickly. So you had that opportunity in 2002-2004, and I'm sure that won't be the last. Hang in there.

-ERD50
 
And on a related note...

what is it with all these media reports? The average Joe/Jane on the street sulking about the market, and how they will have to cut expenses?

It's not like the Average Joe/Jane is living off their portfolio! Like on Thurs night, the discussion around the dinner table is - gee Hon, let's go to that fancy French restaurant this w/e. "Let's see... Continental Airlines is UP this week - sure, you make the reservations, I'll put in a sell order!" Or " No, SHLD is down this week - it's oatmeal for us!".

Crazy media - and this really does make things drop more - everybody, stop buying! If the use of credit is as high as reported, most people should buy less, but it should be driven by reason, not media hype.

Now, a retiree thinking about cutting spending due to a down market - yeah, I can see that.

-ERD50
 
Hershey102 said:
Some media stories cite weak earnings and slumping oil prices as fueling recession fears. A year ago, the rising price of oil was blamed, in part, for hurting the corporate bottom line. Now that dinosaur juice is dropping in price, it is again faulted. Are both correct?
Click to expand...

I have yet to see any story blaming dropping oil prices for anything other than the weakness in oil companies.
It [the low price] is seen as a result of the world wide economic downturn rather than a cause.
 
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