Is the market *really* DOWN?

[Gardnr]

And on a related note...

what is it with all these media reports? The average Joe/Jane on the street sulking about the market, and how they will have to cut expenses?

It's not like the Average Joe/Jane is living off their portfolio! Like on Thurs night, the discussion around the dinner table is - gee Hon, let's go to that fancy French restaurant this w/e. "Let's see... Continental Airlines is UP this week - sure, you make the reservations, I'll put in a sell order!" Or " No, SHLD is down this week - it's oatmeal for us!".

Crazy media - and this really does make things drop more - everybody, stop buying! If the use of credit is as high as reported, most people should buy less, but it should be driven by reason, not media hype.

Now, a retiree thinking about cutting spending due to a down market - yeah, I can see that.

-ERD50

Yeah, I know what you mean. I've had the same thoughts. For many people it's just the freak out factor of all the negative news.

Unfortunately I think that for a lot of people it's just a wake up call to the fact that they've been overspending (probably in debt), maybe partly rationalized by their increasing retirement portfolios, and very likely due to the rocketing house prices.

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

Yeah, I know what you mean. I've had the same thoughts. For many people it's just the freak out factor of all the negative news.

Unfortunately I think that for a lot of people it's just a wake up call to the fact that they've been overspending (probably in debt), maybe partly rationalized by their increasing retirement portfolios, and very likely due to the rocketing house prices.

My debt heavy portfolio will soon be reaping the benefits of massive inflation.

 

[Grep]

I think it's a fair point. Where would the top have been if there had been no housing bubble, and would there have even been a "top?"

Just a guess - maybe S&P at 1100-1200? I'd take that scenario.

Cheers.

 

[Gardnr]

My debt heavy portfolio will soon be reaping the benefits of massive inflation.

Wow, that's some nice rationalization.

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

Something got to get me through the day

 

[NW-Bound]

Today it is REALLY down. As in "down a lot."

In terms of absolute dollars, I have lost more in a day than today. But considering that I am 68% in cash (I have a bit of I-bonds and count them as cash), the loss of today left me speechless for a while. Will I see my cash go up to 80%? Hmm... That would mean market at 1/2 of current level.

The question now is not if the sky is falling. I wonder when I will be able to reach up and touch it. But since I am not 6'4, will someone else tell me when he can feel it?

 

[Surfdaddy]

OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now?

-ERD50

You could run for president!

 

[Medit8]

The Pats do have a good football team, Unclemick. Even without Brady. So do the Saints. With Drew.

And yes, the market(s) are down, way down and painfully so.