Follow up on some previous similar threads ( October 2010, 2013) with specifics.
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/your-crystal-ball-ten-years-from-now-52460.html
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/the-next-ten-years-crystal-ball-62487.html
Though DW and I don't invest, movement in the markets DO affect us, and that means watching the commodities, products and services that are changing the face of the economy.
Right now... immediate future... as we travel the potholed roads of the midwest, it looks as if the Asphalt industry will be busy for some time, but that's not the kind of market movement that will necessarily be a driving force for the longer term.
It would be interesting to see what others see as major drivers of the economy in the longer term, as in the title.
Here are some subjects that look to me, as being longer term movers, along with a single short reason why.
UPSIDE
- Infrastructure - Roads, Bridges, Water, Electric and Gas supply lines
- Water- Estimates of long term drought harm. Earliest recovery 4 to 6 years, maybe never
- Food - because of water, blight, increased exports
- Alternate transportation- Max use shared travel - Pivate vehicle grids
- Energy - Solar, wind, geothermal - as source costs balance out
- Education alternates- alternates to facilities based education at all levels-internet based, apprenticeships
- Centralized retail warehouses - ala Amazon
- Rare Mineral sources
Downside
- Healthcare - lower costs - economies of scale, reduced need for broad educational background as technology and lower skill levels required
- Pharma - shakeout due as studies show result based limitations and protections expire.
- Automotive Industry - alternate transportation (as above)
- Entertainment, Content production
- Military Industrial - unsustainable under any scenario
- Housing - overbuilt
Since I've guessed wrong since 2010, this might be a clue for contrarians.
Anyone wanna share some broad future guesses?
(may wanna check what you thought in the other threads)
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/your-crystal-ball-ten-years-from-now-52460.html
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/the-next-ten-years-crystal-ball-62487.html
Though DW and I don't invest, movement in the markets DO affect us, and that means watching the commodities, products and services that are changing the face of the economy.
Right now... immediate future... as we travel the potholed roads of the midwest, it looks as if the Asphalt industry will be busy for some time, but that's not the kind of market movement that will necessarily be a driving force for the longer term.
It would be interesting to see what others see as major drivers of the economy in the longer term, as in the title.
Here are some subjects that look to me, as being longer term movers, along with a single short reason why.
UPSIDE
- Infrastructure - Roads, Bridges, Water, Electric and Gas supply lines
- Water- Estimates of long term drought harm. Earliest recovery 4 to 6 years, maybe never
- Food - because of water, blight, increased exports
- Alternate transportation- Max use shared travel - Pivate vehicle grids
- Energy - Solar, wind, geothermal - as source costs balance out
- Education alternates- alternates to facilities based education at all levels-internet based, apprenticeships
- Centralized retail warehouses - ala Amazon
- Rare Mineral sources
Downside
- Healthcare - lower costs - economies of scale, reduced need for broad educational background as technology and lower skill levels required
- Pharma - shakeout due as studies show result based limitations and protections expire.
- Automotive Industry - alternate transportation (as above)
- Entertainment, Content production
- Military Industrial - unsustainable under any scenario
- Housing - overbuilt
Since I've guessed wrong since 2010, this might be a clue for contrarians.
Anyone wanna share some broad future guesses?
(may wanna check what you thought in the other threads)
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