haha
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That drop in stocks is following the presidential cycle - Need to Know - MarketWatch
Really, I think that the only safe times to invest in most US stocks is when PE10 does not indicate meaningful overvalue. Still, few of us can emotionally or tax wise completely liquidate and then wait who knows how long until a safe long term investing level shows up. Certainly I hit this recent drawdown with more stock than I would really like given my estimate of valuation.
I also pay attention to the so called presidential cycle. Various people look at it differently, but Jeremy Grantham uses Oct 1 of an election year as the start of a 8-9 month period during which losses are quite rare. We shall see if that continues to hold this year. The data set is not very large which introduces meaningful caveat.
Anyway, here is a chart that projects an average result of 2nd term midterm years onto the present.
Mike
Really, I think that the only safe times to invest in most US stocks is when PE10 does not indicate meaningful overvalue. Still, few of us can emotionally or tax wise completely liquidate and then wait who knows how long until a safe long term investing level shows up. Certainly I hit this recent drawdown with more stock than I would really like given my estimate of valuation.
I also pay attention to the so called presidential cycle. Various people look at it differently, but Jeremy Grantham uses Oct 1 of an election year as the start of a 8-9 month period during which losses are quite rare. We shall see if that continues to hold this year. The data set is not very large which introduces meaningful caveat.
Anyway, here is a chart that projects an average result of 2nd term midterm years onto the present.
Mike