Gloom & Doom Pundits vs. the S&P 500 2010-2016

[REWahoo]

How well are the "Repent, the end is near!" market gurus doing? Take a look at this chart:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/pundits.jpeg

 

[Alan]

The only name I recognize on that chart is Bill Gross which I hope shows that I don't even know who the pundits are, let alone think about following their advice.

 

[eytonxav]

I am surprised Hussman's name is not on that chart as another in the perma-bear club.

 

[Major Tom]

The world has been going to hell in a hand-basket for so long, you'd think we'd have gotten there by now. We really need to shape up, and step up our game........

 

[marko]

Finally! I've been waiting for someone, somewhere to call these "experts" on their claims!

Now, if we can get one for the 'rosy picture' experts!

 

[W2R]

REWahoo, I hope some of our members look at that chart and take it to heart. I worry that people actually believe these idiots that try to persuade us that they are "experts" and actually know what is going to happen to the market.

They don't have the slightest clue, although they do know how to make investing sound scarier than sky-diving. It's just not that bad, even for scaredy cats like me.

The world has been going to hell in a hand-basket for so long, you'd think we'd have gotten there by now. We really need to shape up, and step up our game........

I always wondered what a handbasket was, so I just Googled it and found out that it is one of those baskets with handles, like a picnic basket. I also found this graphic...

 

[Lsbcal]

Don't know how anyone can predict even a few minutes into the future.

If they could then why bother with further out bets?

 

[pb4uski]

I don't know why these quacks even get enough coverage to make their bizarre views even narrowly known.

That said, with respect to Mr. Weidemer, you can say that he is consistent... 50% unemployment, 90% stock market crash and 100% inflation starting soon... but thankfully he is also consistently WRONG!

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Don't know how anyone can predict even a few minutes into the future.

You're not kidding. It surprises me daily that the weather folks can determine when a hurricane is going to form and give us a good idea where it's going, but to tell me if it's going to rain tomorrow? Yeah, sorry they suck at that and The Farmer's Almanac does a better job. Just this week, we were "assured" that most areas would get up 4-6 inches of rain...I told my wife "LIES!" (just from my VERY basic understand weather from being in aviation). Then they said "2-3 inches" and now "up to an inch". They rely on too many models and they try to "pick" the one that seems most reasonable...and I don't think they really think through the "big picture" of what is going on.

I know...weather...has nothing to do with the topic. Well, it does, sort of. The folks that are all doom and gloom are just as bad at predicting it. And well, the fact of the matter is that bad news sells, so that's what they do.

 

[UpAnchor]

What amazes me about Weidemer is how he can be so wrong for so long and still continue to sell books like hot cakes. Consistently holding onto the 90% drop/50% unemployment seems way over-the-top to most of us, even making some of the other pundits' projections look bland. Yet his books seem to fly off the shelf at our local Barnes & Noble. Perhaps he figures one of these days he'll finally hit the big one and be seen for posterity as the one true prophet. Until then, just keep preaching/selling...

 

[Pilot2013]

Perhaps he figures one of these days he'll finally hit the big one and be seen for posterity as the one true prophet. Until then, just keep preaching/selling...

This is your answer....

 

[Lsbcal]

You're not kidding. It surprises me daily that the weather folks can determine when a hurricane is going to form and give us a good idea where it's going, but to tell me if it's going to rain tomorrow? ....

My guess is that the weather is an easier problem then predicting where markets are going to go. Depends on a huge number of unknowns that might happen any time. And then that depends on millions of human reactions to those events. And I can be very accurate on the weather going out a few minutes but not on the market prices.

I have proven to myself that I cannot guess well which way the market is going in the next few minutes. Did this with real money when I wanted to switch from some ETFs to the same mutual funds. Had to sell the ETF just near the close and buy the fund. Wanted to pick a time when the ETF was going down somewhat or stable since the close price would basically be my fund buy price. After several trades to do this, I was basically down a little on the switches.

 

[travelover]

What amazes me about Weidemer is how he can be so wrong for so long and still continue to sell books like hot cakes. ...........

And, of course, if one really could predict the market, one would simply invest shrewdly and spend their days on the golf course instead of shilling books and giving seminars.

 

[Sunset]

You know these forecasters are faking it, because if they could accurately forcast the market, they would not bother to say, but simply borrow as much as they could and then leverage their prediction and become the richest person in the world.

I have an 80% confidence level in my prediction that within some 12 month period, the US stock market will drop over 45%. When it does I'll be able to write a book about my next prediction.

Well seems I'm a slow typer.

 

[ripper1]

Well, a wise man once said.......There are those that don't know and those that don't know that don't know.

 

[aja8888]

I have an 80% confidence level in my prediction that within some 12 month period, the US stock market will drop over 45%. When it does I'll be able to write a book about my next prediction.

Well seems I'm a slow typer.

You need to write the book ahead of the event, otherwise, it's a history book.

 

[DrRoy]

A stopped clock is correct twice a day.

 

[REWahoo]

A stopped clock is correct twice a day.

And far, far more accurate than any of these guys.

 

[braumeister]

Well, a wise man once said.......There are those that don't know and those that don't know that don't know.

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

-- Attributed to Mark Twain, among several others. Someone surely said it first.

 

[Totoro]

I am surprised Hussman's name is not on that chart as another in the perma-bear club.

I believe Hussman changed his approach, missing the second part of the recovery.

He basically now thinks that overvalued situations can persist as long as there is no event triggering a panic. So he expanded the model. Last I checked (a while ago) he's now in the "overvalued but no crash ahead" camp.

Whether it works dunno, but he's trying to learn from his mistakes and freely admits them.

 

[nash031]

They're all selling something. Or have a vested interest in gold.

 

[braumeister]

Finally! I've been waiting for someone, somewhere to call these "experts" on their claims!

Now, if we can get one for the 'rosy picture' experts!

I suspect it would be somewhat similar. The biggest perma-bull I can think of is Abby Joseph Cohen, and her prediction back in January was that the S&P 500 "may finish the year at 2,100." Since it hit that a month ago, she has revised her "prediction" to 2,150.

 

[Lsbcal]

I believe Hussman changed his approach, missing the second part of the recovery.

He basically now thinks that overvalued situations can persist as long as there is no event triggering a panic. So he expanded the model. Last I checked (a while ago) he's now in the "overvalued but no crash ahead" camp.

Whether it works dunno, but he's trying to learn from his mistakes and freely admits them.

Didn't his models look at the past? Seems that any decent model would have considered this scenario i.e. valuation is out of model's bounds but market ignores it and goes up.

I think that if the author showed us his model that would be much more interesting and maybe believable. If the model is really good then showing it would lead to popularization which is bad for that model going forward. So he can't or won't do that. So what we are left with is "believing" in the person's analytical skills and some rough statements from the modeler. Sort of like religion.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't follow any of these experts, though have seen their names on the Web headlines.

But, but, but this caught my attention:

I believe Hussman changed his approach, missing the second part of the recovery.

He basically now thinks that overvalued situations can persist as long as there is no event triggering a panic. So he expanded the model. Last I checked (a while ago) he's now in the "overvalued but no crash ahead" camp.

Whether it works dunno, but he's trying to learn from his mistakes and freely admits them.

"Overvalued but no crash"? Uh oh!

Now, what's the chance he is proven wrong again?

 

[Totoro]

He does explain a lot of his thinking in data-drive logic, and is actually an investment manager.

I think he's worthwhile reading up on, he's not really a doom pundit:
Hussman Funds - Investing for long-term returns while managing risk - Home page