Thoughts on TESLA

[frayne]

I bought 100 shares awhile back for about $200 a share and I'm thinking about picking up another 100, any thoughts ?

 

[Whisper66]

Price is being driven by hope and hype. Fun to bet on but with ongoing losses doesn't look like a good investment. Was actually considering shorting it but shorting isn't in my investing philosophy. Oh well. Congrats on the value increase so far.

 

[kgtest]

Wish I would have bought it a couple years ago. Sort of like AMZN. Shoulda, woulda, coulda...

I live in a cold state where the batteries dont last very long. Not as many chargers per capita here, and not as much sun.

It could be a good bet, could be a bad one too.

 

[wolf]

Not for me. Company not profitable. Surviving off of invested money.
Just a matter of time.

However, I do see a future for the battery portion of the business.

 

[OldShooter]

Lots of things you could read. One I remember is a book by Jeremy Seigel where he talks about the "Growth Trap." Lots of data before and since prove him right. These guys (https://www.mpmgllc.com/blog/jeremy-siegels-growth-trap/) gave me an autographed copy, which I still have. The link is a pretty good summary.

Tesla is for gamblers. So is Vegas.

 

[Running_Man]

I bought 100 shares awhile back for about $200 a share and I'm thinking about picking up another 100, any thoughts ?

At current market valuation of 53 Billion if TESLA sells one million cars by 2019 as Elon Musk says they will and make a profit of $10,000 per car TESLA would make 10 billion dollars in 2019. So at a PE of 20 at that point the stock would sell for 200 Billion or about a fourbagger from here. If the profit falls to $2,500 at a million cars, a good result but not what bulls anticipate you are then looking at 50 billion in stock price or flat for the current stock price. So you will have to think about how much Elon Musk can make per car when he is selling to the masses at 40-50K per car. Elon Musk is a self promoting genius and he expects TESLA to overcome APPLE in market cap size by 2022 so that would mean it would be around a trillion dollars or a 20 bagger from here if it does that. The last company to have so many believers in a new way of doing things that enabled a massive stock market price was Valiant. Self dealing and the belief there was no competition for the newly discovered business eventually led to it’s downfall as the support for additional debt forced the story to implode. To now, Elon Musk can raise Billions whenever he wants or needs to, he is better than Pearson at explaining his vision.

 

[stepford]

Come on, Elon's a visionary. Of course Tesla's worth more than Ford (and GM, combined).

Back when I used to work in the aerospace biz we'd say the same thing whenever one of SpaceX's rockets would blow up. OK, Elon's a visionary, but which car or spacecraft do YOU want to climb into?

 

[Zathras]

TSLA is a highly speculative stock, which I wished I had bought more of when it was $19
If you invest in it, I would suggest doing so with a small position that you can afford to loose much of.

That said, the losses are all because Tesla is trying to grow as quickly as possible.
Other than the occasional quarter, I don't expect them to be profitable for years.
I do expect them to make tons of money, but they will also spend tons of money to continue to expand.

 

[OldShooter]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

 

[CaliKid]

I'd rather go to Vegas! At least then I get "free" drinks while gambling!

 

[Aerides]

I have 3 shares in my play money account that I got about a year ago. Hey, I'm up $100 now!

If I were the OP I'd be torn between considering to stay and go long, or cash out now. I wouldn't be thinking about doubling down.

 

[rocketjockey]

Come on, Elon's a visionary. Of course Tesla's worth more than Ford (and GM, combined).

Back when I used to work in the aerospace biz we'd say the same thing whenever one of SpaceX's rockets would blow up. OK, Elon's a visionary, but which car or spacecraft do YOU want to climb into?

Finally got me off the lurker sidelines with that one. I used to say that about SpaceX too. A whole lotta crow was being consumed last week by "the industry". Zero space knowledge to reusable boosters in 15 years (and space craft within the next couple months). He does over promise on timelines, but the results are there. And having ridden in my nephew's Tesla Model S, it is flawless. I tried very hard not to be a fanboi, but the dude is good, real good.

 

[Animorph]

Why buy now when it is hitting new highs?

It might go up with a successful Model 3 launch, but that's probably mostly included in the current price. Any hiccup could tank the price. Seems like limited upside and significant loss potential. Now if it takes a big dip on some bad Model 3 news that might be a good time to jump in if you think it's just a short-term problem.

 

[Car-Guy]

I'd rather go to Vegas! At least then I get "free" drinks while gambling!

My thoughts exactly.... But then again, I'll go to Vegas for just about any reason but wouldn't try to drive a Tesla that far .

Didn't Tesla just have their first profitable quarter last year?

 

[Zathras]

My thoughts exactly.... But then again, I'll go to Vegas for just about any reason but wouldn't try to drive a Tesla that far .

Didn't Tesla just have their first profitable quarter last year?

Second actually, but basically. Tesla has been growing like gangbusters. They employ over 10,000 people, have over 200,000 vehicles worldwide, and are adding 80k/annually.
They also are stabilizing grids in cities, islands and even regionally. With the help of the worlds largest factory they are building.

So yes, the haven't logged hardly any profit. But they have made lots of money from their cars and are pouring it back into the company.

And yes, TSLA is highly speculative. But I wouldn't bet against them

 

[Fedup]

I saw the run up a couple days ago, I wish I had bought some calls, purely for speculative.

 

[Car-Guy]

And yes, TSLA is highly speculative. But I wouldn't bet against them

I think I will.

 

[Midpack]

Second actually, but basically. Tesla has been growing like gangbusters. They employ over 10,000 people, have over 200,000 vehicles worldwide, and are adding 80k/annually.
They also are stabilizing grids in cities, islands and even regionally. With the help of the worlds largest factory they are building.

So yes, the haven't logged hardly any profit. But they have made lots of money from their cars and are pouring it back into the company.

And yes, TSLA is highly speculative. But I wouldn't bet against them

IIRC, you're also a Model S car owner? If you're who I think, I know you're very knowledgeable on Tesla.

 

[NW-Bound]

...And yes, TSLA is highly speculative. But I wouldn't bet against them

+1
I never bought Amazon, or Netflix, or Google. I also never shorted them.

 

[Chuckanut]

My guess is that at some point Tesla will be purchased by a major auto company for its technology. To bad as that will probably be the kiss of death for Tesla.

Mr. Musk has made it clear that in the long run his BIG goal is SpaceX. He wants to insure the survival of the human race in case that asteroid that messes up our Firecalc tested plans really does hit us.

 

[calmloki]

My guess is that at some point Tesla will be purchased by a major auto company for its technology. To bad as that will probably be the kiss of death for Tesla.

Mr. Musk has made it clear that in the long run his BIG goal is SpaceX. He wants to insure the survival of the human race in case that asteroid that messes up our Firecalc tested plans really does hit us.

Thinking of another thread - does that make Tesla a company to buy for a biblical based portfolio? Seems like trying to ensure the survival of the human race is pretty good without having any pesky sect slant.

 

[Texas Proud]

Right now the value of Tesla is based on hope... not fundamentals....

If you have hope for the stock, then buy... the worst you can do is lose 1X... if he does pan out then you will make more than 1X.... if he does not... well, you know your max loss...

 

[mpeirce]

> He does over promise on timelines, but the results are there.

In my experience, the really ambitious folks always overpromise on timelines. It motivates a good team. Kinda of destroys home life though. Of course a nice work/home balance isn't what these companies are all about.

 

[rocketjockey]

> He does over promise on timelines, but the results are there.

In my experience, the really ambitious folks always overpromise on timelines. It motivates a good team. Kinda of destroys home life though. Of course a nice work/home balance isn't what these companies are all about.

Tell me about it. Look at my user name. Draw your own conclusions as to my employer!

 

[OldShooter]

+1
I never bought Amazon, or Netflix, or Google. I also never shorted them.

Wise man.

Thing #1 about growth stocks is that absolutely all statistical research says that they are bad investments. (NB: Investing involves buying and holding.) They are stocks for traders and gamblers who are hoping that there will be a greater fool to bail them out. Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn't

Thing #2 is that in discussions like this the names of "winners" get thrown around and one might start to believe that these are typical growth stocks. Instead, this is an exceptional display of survivor bias. Nobody mentions the majority of growth stocks that are losers, like JDS Uniphase and Nortel Networks. Nobody mentions the formerly-growth stocks that have regressed to the mean, leaving the traders high and dry without greater fools to sell to.

So the correct answer to the OP's question can be determined by simply asking whether he is an investor or a gambler. I don't think there is anything wrong with being a gambler if one understands that and also understands that the odds are against him/her. That's how casinios (and brokers) make their money; gamblers who think that they can beat the odds.

Full disclosure: I once owned a piece of a casino management company and made quite a bit of money from it. My gambling comprises one nickel into a slot machine each time I am forced to go to Vegas for a trade show. Yes, I lose the nickel.