RetireAge50
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2013
- Messages
- 1,660
....5. Congress will do its job...
Normally, I am long-term optimistic, but today I turned long-term pessimistic.
Normally, after a 10% to 20% drop so quickly, I get very optimistic. Now I see that GDP growth rates cannot be goosed so high anymore. So growth is slowing and fundamentally, stocks go up because of general economic growth. The slowdown is a long-term problem.
The short-term problems will get played out rather quickly. I think they are
1. FOMC will raise FFR tomorrow as expected.
2. Budget will get passed in some form and government will not be shutdown.
3. Trade war will take a little longer, but it will be attenuated.
4. Coal miners will die of black lung disease, so trying to keep coal mines open will become a non-issue.
5. Congress will do its job and help prevent some reckless decisions by others.
6. Brexit will not happen and another referendum will send Europe into a tizzy which is a positive.
So short-term looks excellent, but longer-term of 2 to 3 years out doesn't look good to me.
3 of the 6 being the .com bust. So basically if you retired end of 1999, you were one unlucky sap...unless you had 3 years of living expenses liquid...then you bounced back in 2003!positive in 23 years and negative in 6 years.
My optimistic question:
Can we live on 50% of our portfolio for 30 years, reasonably comfortable? This is my go-to question. I'm saying 50% of our portfolio today. After the deep dive. We may inch up over the next 5 years but highly unlikely we'll get back to the high it was in the time we'll WD. Living on outside cash and I bonds for 4 years. Still deciding when to take SS. Small pension at 65.
Normally, I am long-term optimistic, but today I turned long-term pessimistic.
So short-term looks excellent, but longer-term of 2 to 3 years out doesn't look good to me.
This might be totally meaningless but I keep track of stock returns since I started investing. Returns are all over the place but positive in 23 years and negative in 6 years. Overall return tends to want to go back to about 10%.
Normally, I am long-term optimistic, but today I turned long-term pessimistic.
Normally, after a 10% to 20% drop so quickly, I get very optimistic. Now I see that GDP growth rates cannot be goosed so high anymore. So growth is slowing and fundamentally, stocks go up because of general economic growth. The slowdown is a long-term problem.
The short-term problems will get played out rather quickly. I think they are
1. FOMC will raise FFR tomorrow as expected.
2. Budget will get passed in some form and government will not be shutdown.
3. Trade war will take a little longer, but it will be attenuated.
4. Coal miners will die of black lung disease, so trying to keep coal mines open will become a non-issue.
5. Congress will do its job and help prevent some reckless decisions by others.
6. Brexit will not happen and another referendum will send Europe into a tizzy which is a positive.
So short-term looks excellent, but longer-term of 2 to 3 years out doesn't look good to me.
Based on today's S&P close and Yardeni's year end S&P earnings of 162.66, the PE ratio is 15.
Okay, stocks look iffy. I'm thinking bonds are scary. Anyone else want to add their two cents?
Okay, stocks look iffy. I'm thinking bonds are scary. Anyone else want to add their two cents?