brewer12345
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2003
- Messages
- 18,085
One of the problems with RE at an early age; you have a bunch more years to worry about ...I will, therefore, forgo all the excitement and just start getting out now.
Yes, that is another concern. High bullish sentiment is a contrary indicator.
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naw, just deal me out of the discussion.But cost of capital isn't fixed.
And if you have evidence that economic profits for the entire market are currently positive I'd like to see it.
I can never remember and am too lazy to go back and look, is Dex the one from that thread where dumped equities to cash in late August at DOW < 10k?Dex, I thought you went to all cash. Why are you fretting over bolinger bands?
I can never remember and am too lazy to go back and look, is Dex the one from that thread where dumped equities to cash in late August at DOW < 10k?
That was my first thought too. I'm holding...but best of luck to all.Dex, I thought you went to all cash. Why are you fretting over bolinger bands?
I can never remember and am too lazy to go back and look, is Dex the one from that thread where dumped equities to cash in late August at DOW < 10k?
IThe fundamentals just seem really poor for the next 5 years or so and I plan to FIRE in 7. What to do, what to do?
You've must of read this.
China Will Face Crisis Within 5 Years, 45% of Investors Say - Bloomberg
Global investors are bracing for the end of China’s relentless economic growth, with 45 percent saying they expect a financial crisis there within five years.
An additional 40 percent anticipate a Chinese crisis after 2016, according to a quarterly poll of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders or analysts. Only 7 percent are confident China will indefinitely escape turmoil.
You've must of read this.
China Will Face Crisis Within 5 Years, 45% of Investors Say - Bloomberg
Global investors are bracing for the end of China’s relentless economic growth, with 45 percent saying they expect a financial crisis there within five years.
An additional 40 percent anticipate a Chinese crisis after 2016, according to a quarterly poll of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders or analysts. Only 7 percent are confident China will indefinitely escape turmoil.
but they are smart and have done a pretty damn good job so far.
Smart people, but not immune to the typical pressures of politically powerful vested interests. Case in point . . .
China has an inflation problem. But in the face of an inflation threat, the central bank is expanding the monetary base. Why? Because the nation's large exporters don't want the currency to appreciate. So China is printing Yuan, and buying dollars to maintain a stable exchange rate. To try to offset the inflationary impacts of loose monetary policy on an accelerating economy, China is resorting, unsuccessfully, to credit and price controls. Which is what the U.S. tried, unsuccessfully, in the 1970's. What's the likelihood that China's experience will be different from ours?
My guess is that one of two things happen in the next decade. An exogenous shock knocks the economy back and, thereby, tames the inflation problem. Or inflation becomes bad enough that a Chinese Paul Volker steps forward and takes away the punch bowl.
Dex, if you keep crying "WOLF" eventually a wolf will show up.
Years ago I thought China was a train wreck in the making but have changed my opinions recently. I used to think there was no way the Communist Chinese would be able to run a pseudo capitalistic economy without running the train off the rails but they are smart and have done a pretty damn good job so far. Sure, they've had some problems and they're going to have some more serious problems going forward but, all in all, they've continued to surprise me. If they do screw up now that would certainly not be helpful to us or the global economy.
Dex, if you keep crying "WOLF" eventually a wolf will show up.
At which point he will become a CNN talking head and milk the situation for at least 4-5 years based on having made the correct call.
I recall that some of the folks arguing the case for impending doom and going "all cash" were pretty quiet through 2007 and perhaps even into early 2008 as well, but were quick to return with a heaping dose of "I told you so" after Lehman imploded...Heh, he's been real quiet about his last call.
I worked in HK and had dealings on the mainland. It is an interesting story. They've done the heavy lifting so far. Now the challenges begin. They provided work and raised many out of poverty but can they keep that going? Their success in creating a middle class will put pressures on the government to get rid of corruption - a very big problem. Read the recent articles about Singapore and how they have dealt with it. Also, cracks in the idea of central planning are showing - caused by their economic slowdown.
Ghost towns of China: Satellite images show cities lying completely deserted | Mail Online
It should be an interesting story to watch unfold.
I recall that some of the folks arguing the case for impending doom and going "all cash" were pretty quiet through 2007 and perhaps even into early 2008 as well, but were quick to return with a heaping dose of "I told you so" after Lehman imploded...
I recall that some of the folks arguing the case for impending doom and going "all cash" were pretty quiet through 2007 and perhaps even into early 2008 as well, but were quick to return with a heaping dose of "I told you so" after Lehman imploded...