haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
When I read these market discussions, I am always struck by how perfectionistic many investors sound. For example, who is to say that the late 1999 level of Shiller's PE is meaningful, as anything other than a known past high.
A pretty good market timer, Jeremy Grantham, believes that there is little crash risk at present. His reasoning is essentially that there always will be mass stupidity, and that we can count on investors to get really, really stupid before a big move like the one from 2009 to present will end. He is very experienced, and has been quite effective over the years. Still, I prefer not to walk on a slippery mountain slope when it is not necessary. Just because people have walked here at other slippery times and not fallen does not quite cut it for me. Anyone who thinks that a reliable fence can be put around what can happen in markets is not quite home. Over many years, I have found a modestly misanthropic view of human rationality to be an aid to investing. The argument that "there is no other game in town" is specious. My guess is that 5 years of the delta between a very conservative, low duration fund and what an equity first strategy might return over this same 5 years could easily be lost in 6 months of bad luck in the equities.
I strongly prefer making the possible mistake of missing further overvaluation in an already quite overvalued market to getting my ass handed to me if that overvalued market should return to reason. The first error can seriously hurt me. The second can at worst make me miss some of the truffles and Dom Perignon that has recently achieved popularity among certain segments of our membership. I'd rather have $10 vodka and pickled pig's feet anyway, and this I could even buy with my SS payments
Ha
A pretty good market timer, Jeremy Grantham, believes that there is little crash risk at present. His reasoning is essentially that there always will be mass stupidity, and that we can count on investors to get really, really stupid before a big move like the one from 2009 to present will end. He is very experienced, and has been quite effective over the years. Still, I prefer not to walk on a slippery mountain slope when it is not necessary. Just because people have walked here at other slippery times and not fallen does not quite cut it for me. Anyone who thinks that a reliable fence can be put around what can happen in markets is not quite home. Over many years, I have found a modestly misanthropic view of human rationality to be an aid to investing. The argument that "there is no other game in town" is specious. My guess is that 5 years of the delta between a very conservative, low duration fund and what an equity first strategy might return over this same 5 years could easily be lost in 6 months of bad luck in the equities.
I strongly prefer making the possible mistake of missing further overvaluation in an already quite overvalued market to getting my ass handed to me if that overvalued market should return to reason. The first error can seriously hurt me. The second can at worst make me miss some of the truffles and Dom Perignon that has recently achieved popularity among certain segments of our membership. I'd rather have $10 vodka and pickled pig's feet anyway, and this I could even buy with my SS payments
Ha
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