MRG
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2013
- Messages
- 11,079
I did not know you could get eggs from them, but the meat idea is a great one.
Damn autocorrect.
I did not know you could get eggs from them, but the meat idea is a great one.
Grass-fed beef is a healthier meat than corn-fed, but not as fatty and tender. And indeed corn is not a natural food for cows, though we force them to eat it.
Pigs and chicken on the other hand need carb from grain. The conversion from corn to chicken meat is nothing short of amazing. It takes less than 2 lbs of corn to get 1 lb of chicken meat. If humans were so efficient with our food, we would all weigh 1000 lbs.
Cattle are raised by letting them graze free range, so they do grow up on grass. It is only in the last few months of their life that they are fed corn in feed lots, in order to fatten them up. This is not a common practice in other countries.
"Famine" might be a bit of an overstatement. Meat production in the US is an inefficient way to make protein, and the US diet already includes much more protein than we need for optimum health. Even in the event of a widespread failure of corn or soy crops, the farmland we have will produce enough calories to keep everyone afloat, and pigs, hens, etc will eat a lot of different things and produce enough protein for adequate health. The only problem would be US purchases of meat from poorer countries overseas when prices go up--we're adequately wealthy to do it, and those populations might be deprived of adequate protein unless trade restrictions are put into place.Our whole food supply revolves around dirt cheap corn and soy. That could be changed in a crisis, but probably not in time to avoid famine.
Yes. It may be means or assets based, but you can be assured that if there is enough voters receiving it, it will go up at least as much as inflation.
"Famine" might be a bit of an overstatement. Meat production in the US is an inefficient way to make protein, and the US diet already includes much more protein than we need for optimum health. Even in the event of a widespread failure of corn or soy crops, the farmland we have will produce enough calories to keep everyone afloat, and pigs, hens, etc will eat a lot of different things and produce enough protein for adequate health. The only problem would be US purchases of meat from poorer countries overseas when prices go up--we're adequately wealthy to do it, and those populations might be deprived of adequate protein unless trade restrictions are put into place.
I just don;t think it's nearly the risk for the US as for some other countries, and that there are other more likely causes for big US inflation than an agriculture crisis.How long would a switch take to implement though? Say the corn and soy crops fail throughout the Midwest some autumn. Our farmland may be able to produce something else by next fall, but I think it would make for a pretty ugly year. Also, if the failure was caused by drought, there is no guarantee that something else could be grown in quantity the next year.
I just don;t think it's nearly the risk for the US as for some other countries, and that there are other more likely causes for big US inflation than an agriculture crisis.
11 years into my 30 year plan, I worry less about "high" inflation (like we saw in the late 70's early 80's) but worry more about "hyper" inflation (20%, 50%, 100%). Gummint has some control over inflation, but I think we may have set ourselves up for worse inflation than we can handle. The debt increase has been staggering (anyone ever divide 330 million people into $20 trillion?) If interest rates have to rise, service on the debt could force us to print more, causing more interest rate hikes, etc. etc. Eventually, wheelbarrow economics could rule. I think the chance of this in my life time is relatively low - but not out of the question. Right now, a strong economy (which can lead to moderate inflation) would seem the only thing that could (temporarily) permanently stave off BIG inflation. YMMV
Our chronic budget deficit is surely adding to the Debt growth. Yet I think that the threat of high inflation could come from a change in world trade settlements. For many decades it was king dollar for most of those settlements. Therefor most countries held dollars in their main foreign currency reserves for trade. However recently most Chinese trade partners are moving toward trade in their own currencies what eventually is going to push large amounts of unneeded US$ back to US. It might trigger high inflation.11 years into my 30 year plan, I worry less about "high" inflation (like we saw in the late 70's early 80's) but worry more about "hyper" inflation (20%, 50%, 100%). Gummint has some control over inflation, but I think we may have set ourselves up for worse inflation than we can handle. The debt increase has been staggering (anyone ever divide 330 million people into $20 trillion?) If interest rates have to rise, service on the debt could force us to print more, causing more interest rate hikes, etc. etc. Eventually, wheelbarrow economics could rule. I think the chance of this in my life time is relatively low - but not out of the question. Right now, a strong economy (which can lead to moderate inflation) would seem the only thing that could (temporarily) permanently stave off BIG inflation. YMMV
However recently most Chinese trade partners are moving toward trade in their own currencies what eventually is going to push large amounts of unneeded US$ back to US. It might trigger high inflation.
So the USA has to buy Yuan, then send the Yuan back to China? I think the Yuan would become a high value currency, which the Chinese do not want.
If prices for Chinese goods went up, they would have to lower the prices further, or risk manufactures making the goods somewhere else.
I do not see inflation coming out of this. If wages rise, inflation starts.
If prices for Chinese goods went up, they would have to lower the prices further, or risk manufactures making the goods somewhere else.
If you think it is expensive now, imagine when people are trying to use it instead of corn or soy.
Our whole food supply revolves around dirt cheap corn and soy. That could be changed in a crisis, but probably not in time to avoid famine.
I don't have a crystal ball for 3 months much less 30 years. I'd worry about nuclear war before inflation . . . .
So the USA has to buy Yuan, then send the Yuan back to China? I think the Yuan would become a high value currency, which the Chinese do not want.
If prices for Chinese goods went up, they would have to lower the prices further, or risk manufactures making the goods somewhere else.
I do not see inflation coming out of this. If wages rise, inflation starts.
+1 China is already grappling with some manufacturing leaving to Vietnam.
Back in the heyday of US Growth, the shift from agriculture to manufacturing required many hands to make the goods. Nowadays, due to technology (not only automation, but even moreso, software/robotics), as China shifts from agrarian to manufacturing, even more technological progress requires far, far fewer hands. So not only are they facing wage inflation, but the technological advances today (compared to the US/Europe's shift from agriculture to manufacturing) are a double whammy compared to how the US tackled it 3-5 generations ago.
THat's not to say that there could be issues with countries dumping US Dollars....
The stealth tax is happening now. It's the difference between what the official CPI-U is and what money really buys. It doesn't have to be much...too small to argue about, but year after year after year, it adds-up and in fact compounds. I contend that many of us here are barely keeping even with real inflation in those assets allocated to bonds.It appears to me that the likeliest cause for high inflation in the US will be deliberate action by the government/Fed to devalue the currency. If the debt our government owes becomes unserviceable (due to its size in relation to the government receipts), there will be strong political pressure to "print more money" and make payments with this new money rather than default on debt payments/SS payments, etc. Each new dollar introduced reduces the value of all existing dollars. This is the choice that many governments have made in the past when it is politically impossible to raise taxes further--they introduce a "stealth tax" whereby all existing holding denominated int he national currency are devalued.
+1 Plus hard asset stocks, rental properties, etc.Owning the great companies of the world has been a very good way to protect and even enhance your purchasing power over the long term. If you're worried about inflation, own equities that can increase the price of their products/services.
I don't think it's likely, but there is a non-zero chance of a US debt crisis. What if China decided to dump all their US bonds? Yeah, they have nowhere else to go, I agree, but in another dimension, what if they did have somewhere else to go?11 years into my 30 year plan, I worry less about "high" inflation (like we saw in the late 70's early 80's) but worry more about "hyper" inflation (20%, 50%, 100%).
So the USA has to buy Yuan, then send the Yuan back to China? I think the Yuan would become a high value currency, which the Chinese do not want.