Name an arcane industry

[ls99]

Artificial race horse insemination.

 

[Nemo2]

"Arcane? How about building a big boat to take all the animals in the world and......" "What's that?" "Oops sorry, spelling error."

 

[Boho]

Over a 10 year period? Show me this list of funds that beat the market over a 10 year period, and the universe they are picked from, so we have a %.

No, I was referring to the SPIVA Scorecard. It doesn't look at the track records, just the percentage of funds that beat the index for the year. For a bet I'd do further research and choose a fund with a good track record.

Marketwatch says managed funds perform even better than that:

‘Index funds beat active 90% of the time.’ Really?

During the two bull periods, the index outperformed 80% and 63% of its peers. However, during the down market cycles (bear), the index beat only 34% and 38% of its active management competitors. This is one of the most consistent conclusions we have seen in this and other studies — that active managers, in the aggregate, are effective in curbing some of the losses in the worst of times.

And then why the heck did the hedge 'fund of funds' take the bet?

I think a guy chose 100 hedge funds and he obviously had some reason to believe he'd win. I think stuff goes on with hedge funds that isn't even allowed for mutual funds. I don't know statistics on them.

...I'm increasingly thinking investors should go lighter on the bonds and concentrate on value and managed funds to deal with volatility.

 

[Texas Proud]

Buggy whips is the classic.

Dag nabbit.... that is what I was going to say

 

[NW-Bound]

Anything that I have not been personally involved with is arcane.

I often see stock recommendation for mid-sized companies, and don't really know what they do even after looking them up on the Web. And then, while traveling, driving through the country, past small towns, little hamlets, I constantly wonder what these people do for a living. There are businesses, factories all along the highways. What could they be doing? It's a mystery.

I recall reading something about big corporations getting a lot of publicity, but actually employing less than 1/2 of all workers. Much of the rest are out there doing some arcane stuff, I guess.

 

[ERD50]

No, I was referring to the SPIVA Scorecard. It doesn't look at the track records, just the percentage of funds that beat the index for the year. For a bet I'd do further research and choose a fund with a good track record. ...

Well if only 8% beat in a single year (edit - I see that is a five year time frame - still, 8% is pretty rare, and fewer will do it over a 10 year period). You gotta be pretty lucky to find the right one. I'm not sure what skill could be involved in predicting the future.

Hmmm, find the arcane investment that is on the cusp of producing a future predictor. If the prototype works, they will use it to predict how well they will do buying funds that only go up, that they will not want to let you in on the deal!

-ERD50

 

[pb4uski]

.....That 'brilliant' hedge fund manager is losing his bet to Warren Buffet, who just stuck his money in the S&P 500. ....

His bet is against a fund of hedge funds. That's how most of these studies were conducted - an index against the average whoever/whatever. The best few of the bunch will beat the index. In the case of funds, for example, about 8% beat the index. I'd like to see him challenge a single fund with a good track record.

Proetge could have picked a single fund, but chose to pick five fund of funds but even a single fund with good record would likely be losing given hedge funds intrinsic disadvantage (high fees) and the fact that VFIAX (the fund Buffett picked) has been on a tear since 2008.

Also see: Why Warren Buffett Is Winning His $1 Million Bet Against Hedge Funds | Fortune.com

FWIW, VFIAX has also outperformed BRK.A since 1/1/2008 too (but not by a lot).

 

[Boho]

I may look into this:

Flame Retardant Market worth 12.81 Billion USD by 2021

...The global flame retardants market is projected to reach USD 12.81 Billion by 2021 at a CAGR of 6.4% between 2016 and 2021. The market is majorly driven by growth of the end-use industries and increasing fire safety regulations...Aluminum Trihydrate to dominate the flame retardants market...Asia-Pacific is projected to register the highest growth

That website has lots more, but it's made for investors so it's not like I'd be the only one reading it.

http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/new-reports.html

 

[cooch96]

Tort law, desalinization plants, custom knitted hosiery, rare earth mining, metallurgy (especially titanium refining and smelting), lost energy capture turbines, generation IV fission plants, fusion plants, 3D printing, Atkinson and Miller cycle ICE, preferred stock and baby bond investing...

These are some of the industries that fascinate me and all I get are blank looks when I try to bring them up in conversation. But there are threads on this very site about a couple of them.

And I'd like to emphasize the ICE. It looks like we're still twenty+ years of steady improvements. I just saw articles this month about a new (non wankel) rotary engine and Mazda thinks it can make a gas engine that doesn't need spark plugs.

Good luck figuring out which technology will prove superior and smother the others.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Cold Fusion...(Bubbles in a Mason Jar)

" I swear, it's creating energy, I saw it on the meters. We just need a few million more $ to make it practical "

 

[Boho]

On a recent episode of Jay Leno's Garage he had a guy with a 3D printer that made things out of different metals. Each part made costs thousands of dollars and Jay said he'll be referring a lot of people to him. If the company seemed to have decent prospects without that I'd buy based on that but I looked it up and something bothered me. It could have been a lucky find though.

I should probably go to a big library and look at obscure trade journals.

Here's an interesting critical article about one $5,216 report from that marketsandmarkets website that I linked to above. I'm glad I'm willing to do my own research.

 

[ERD50]

His bet is against a fund of hedge funds. That's how most of these studies were conducted - an index against the average whoever/whatever. The best few of the bunch will beat the index. In the case of funds, for example, about 8% beat the index. I'd like to see him challenge a single fund with a good track record.

Proetge could have picked a single fund, but chose to pick five fund of funds but even a single fund with good record would likely be losing given hedge funds intrinsic disadvantage (high fees) and the fact that VFIAX (the fund Buffett picked) has been on a tear since 2008.

Also see: Why Warren Buffett Is Winning His $1 Million Bet Against Hedge Funds | Fortune.com

FWIW, VFIAX has also outperformed BRK.A since 1/1/2008 too (but not by a lot).

An update just came out, and this time they break out the best and worst funds within those funds (and it ain't pretty, if you are a hedge fund manager!):

Warren Buffett Says He's Winning Hedge Fund Bet | Fortune.com

And the envelope, please? After nine years, the index fund has registered a compounded annual increase of 7.1%. And the average for the five funds (whose names have never been made public) is 2.2%. In total gains, the index fund is up 85.4%. The average gain of the five funds is 22%. (The best performer of the five is up 62.8%. The worst performer—over nine years, remember—has been mind-bendingly bad: up only 2.9%.)

Yeah, he should have just picked one fund, that's the ticket!

-ERD50

 

[pb4uski]

Boho's batting average is pretty poor... I'm starting to think he really is a troll.

 

[Amethyst]

People who produce specialty items for the arts and crafts markets. For example, there are quite a few people who hand-dye fibers (silk thread and ribbon, mostly) for embroidery. There are people who buy stamping and scrapbooking supplies, then pretty-package them for resale to the 40-70 female market. I didn't realize what a big deal scrapbooking was, till I visited a lady who had an entire room converted to cubbies-on-the-wall for her immense collection of supplies.

Thing is, these businesses all sell on Etsy and I don't think there are likely to be any IPO's in this industry.

 

[MRG]

Typewriter repair is under appreciated.

 

[Gumby]

Proppant manufacturing
Capacitor manufacturing
Artificial joint manufacturing
Urinal and toilet manufacturing
Heavy lift cranes and industrial rigging
Boron mining
Nuclear power plant services
Uranium enrichment
Medical waste disposal

 

[Ronstar]

Blacksmithing is under appreciated also

 

[Nemo2]

Blacksmithing is under appreciated also

Some farriers make a living though.

 

[Boho]

Boho's batting average is pretty poor... I'm starting to think he really is a troll.

Based on what? It's actually arguably perfect. I admitted to not knowing about hedge funds, but in these studies/bets I don't remember them ever trying to choose the best fund. It's always based on averages. Who knows if the best among the ones this guy chose was really the best based on performance. We don't know the funds and I think nobody even knows how he picked them. Now that I think of it, I wouldn't even be confident about a 10 year bet with a single mutual fund. I'd want the ability to trade during those 10 years.

 

[imoldernu]

My early years were built around the textile industry, which originally introduced into the US back in 1793 with the Slater Mill in Pawtucket, RI

Slater Mill

You might find it rewarding to check out this site, showing then contemporary pictures.

https://www.pinterest.com/ryleighblack/slater-mill-pawtucket-ri/

A different world... mostly less than 150 years ago, when child labor was "normal".

Textile was the most prominent industry in Rhode Island and in New England from those very early days, until the late 1940's and 50's, when it began moving south, due to the lower wages there.
My mom and dad worked in textile mills their entire lives... all in Pawtucket, RI, as did most our relatives and neighbors.
Hundred of mills providing all types of textile products, from cotton to the the (then) newer nylons, dacrons, orlons and various polyesters.
DW's dad owned a textile mill that that took the "spun" cotton from spools, and turned it into "warps", (a warping mill).
Over the years, we all became familiar with the hundreds of different kinds of fabrics, from English Lace, to nylon parachute cord.

My dad (a loomfixer) took me to one of his mills where they had imported 12 lace mills from England... 12 feet wide and probably 6+ tons. It was the first time that a mill had employed a primitive form of robotics to mechanically replace the work of a "weaver" (my mom's profession).

So, is textile an "arcane" industry? Maybe not... but we wouldn't begin to recognize the machinery that is used today to produce textiles in the United States. Most of the industry has moved overseas, and that once vibrant part of U.S. business has faded into memory...kept alive by the remaining hundreds of building shells that have not yet been torn down.

My Grandmother was a Cluett... of Cluett, Peabody... maker of shirt collars and later on, Arrow Shirts. Here'e a pic of their factory in Troy New York, way back when.

 

[poorcarver]

Wood carving.

 

[MRG]

My early years were built around the textile industry, which originally introduced into the US back in 1793
https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attract...later_Mill_Museum-Pawtucket_Rhode_Island.html
Textile was the most prominent industry in Rhode Island and in New England from those very early days, until the late 1940's and 50's, when it began moving south, due to the lower wages there.
My mom and dad worked in textile mills their entire lives... all in Pawtucket, RI, as did most our relatives and neighbors.
Hundred of mills providing all types of textile products, from cotton to the the (then) newer nylons, dacrons, orlons and various polyesters.
DW's dad owned a textile mill that that took the "spun" cotton from spools, and turned it into "warps", (a warping mill).
Over the years, we all became familiar with the hundreds of different kinds of fabrics, from English Lace, to nylon parachute cord.

My dad (a loomfixer) took me to one of his mills where they had imported 12 lace mills from England... 12 feet wide and probably 6+ tons. It was the first time that a mill had employed a primitive form of robotics to mechanically replace the work of a "weaver" (my mom's profession).

So, is textile an "arcane" industry? Maybe not... but we wouldn't begin to recognize the machinery that is used today to produce textiles in the United States. Most of the industry has moves overseas, and that once vibrant part of U.S. business has faded into memory...kept alive by the remaining hundreds of building shells that have not yet been torn down.

I was going to say most is overseas now. I have a couple of buddies trying to make a living in textiles in the middle of PA. They're getting niche orders from a few buyers who only buy US products.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have often talked about my involvement with two startups that eventually failed and caused me loss of wages, in addition to forfeiting juicy 401k and fringe benefits that I would have if I stayed at megacorp.

Both of these startups were doing "arcane" products, something that we thought were small enough markets that big corps would not bother with, but still good as a stepping stone for us to make some money while growing into something larger later. We made a living for a while, but man oh man, there's no stone being left unturned by the hungry people out there.

Whatever one tries to do, there's competition. I thought we were better than them all, but there's no way one can be the only one. Eventually technology changed, and the whole market for these products went away after a few short years. Our goal of evolving into the next thing was doomed because we were too busy making and maintaining the legacy product to do much else.

It ain't easy.

 

[Texas Proud]

Based on what? It's actually arguably perfect. I admitted to not knowing about hedge funds, but in these studies/bets I don't remember them ever trying to choose the best fund. It's always based on averages. Who knows if the best among the ones this guy chose was really the best based on performance. We don't know the funds and I think nobody even knows how he picked them. Now that I think of it, I wouldn't even be confident about a 10 year bet with a single mutual fund. I'd want the ability to trade during those 10 years.

Just by statistics there should be some funds that beat the avg even on a 10 year basis... the question is was it superior stock picking or 'luck'... if they can not beat the avg on the next 10 years then it is 'luck'....

As to you wanting to trade.... well, the hedge funds do trade... you are picking a person who is supposed to be superior at trading so you do not have to... it was not a bet that YOU were a better trader since normal people cannot have you invest their money.... but, an investment product that someone like you or me can invest in and forget it for 10 years...

 

[kcowan]

When we come to Mexico each year, we are always impressed with the seamstress who will fix or modify anything, the shoe guy who will fix anything leather, including handles on purses, the watch guy who does batteries but will replace crystals with a day's notice, the clock guy who puts new innards in the wall clocks, the knife sharpener who offers curb service. bottled water delivery to your door...

The list goes on.