My doomsday scenario

youbet said:
Did you factor in a permanent 50% decline in your portfolio value (50% of your investments go belly-up/worthless) or did you assume a recovery at some point such as we had a decade ago?
Click to expand...

No I factored in a 33% portfolio drop, the result of a 50% stock market drop assuming a 60/40 portfolio. And yes that could be permanent for me and be ok, even though the likelihood is that it will only be down 5-10 years at most.

I believe that 33% was close to the actual drop for such a portfolio 10 years ago. I was almost 100% stock back then but still working and my portfolio fully recovered (and then some) when I ER'd at end of 2014. Given current values I could sustain a true 50% drop now, which would be a catastrophic stock market collapse for the approx. 60/40 that I have.
 
Last edited:
marko said:
My entire family's (grandparents, great grandparents etc) view was "If you think I worked hard so that YOU can enjoy my money you're dreaming! You'll get whatever is left over when I'm dead!"

The family crest could easily read "What's mine is mine!".
Click to expand...

In my family, if you die with no cash and no debts it's a happy ending. It looks like my widowed Dad will leave something given his current age (87) and remaining assets, but it will be split among my 4 siblings and me and won't be life-changing. Fortunately, we're all doing fine without it.

I feel a little differently about DS. His Dad, my Ex, had parents who were entrepreneurs. After they died he inherited $300K (in 1982) and we put $100K down on a house. The rest got spent in the ensuing years, partly to accommodate his splendid tastes (e.g.,a $7,000 watch) and partly to supplement my income during the 5 years he was unemployed, till it ran out.

We sold the house at a large profit and I took my $100K share of the equity and bought another house (adding a hefty mortgage) and sold it 7 years later at a $200K profit. Most of that got invested when second DH and I moved to a LCOL area in 2003.

So- long way of saying, while there was no trust fund or direct bequest to me, and there was some good stewardship of funds along the way, I believe that part of my wealth is a legacy from DS's grandparents. I hope to pass a part of it on.
 
W2R said:
So true!! Inflation would be awful.

I don't have a pet, so I have no idea of what Alpo might cost these days - - but my guess is that peanut butter sandwiches or ramen noodles might not cost too much more than Alpo, especially if I bought generics at a discount store and stayed away from brand names. :LOL:
Click to expand...

Just as a data point, I buy 35 pound bags of the high end version of Costco Kirkland dog food for 30 to 38 bucks depending on the variety.
 
None of the scenarios presented are real doomsday events. They are downturns, recessions, etc. If you want to plan for a true economic collapse look at Germany in the 1920s. This was BEFORE the depression. In 1914, at the start of World War I, the dollar was worth 4.20 marks. From then on the German currency steadily declined, and in the fall of 1922 it went into freefall. By November 1923 the dollar was at 4.2 trillion marks. People needed wheel barrows full of money to buy a loaf of bread. Yes, the mark was revalued and rose to its former level, but many people lost everything. Not through confiscation, not through stock market drops, but by complete devaluation of the currency. The people who came out somewhat unscathed were those who owned material assets - homes, property, gold, silver, jewelry, etc. A lot of factors led to that hyperinflation, but it has happened since then in other countries. The depression that started in 1929 also had doomsday effects, but in a different manner. If you don't study the past, you are doomed to repeat it. Whatever the next doomsday scenario is, we can't see it yet, but it will happen. Once you accept that fact, you can begin to plan.
 
Much less population, but you can find plenty of stories about Zimbabwe and this situation.


Zimbabwe is really a tragic situation since it had so much going for it... until it didn't. Here's to hope and prayers that this turns around real soon.


Joewras: (not so) proud holder of 10 Billion dollar Zimbabwe note.
 
Last edited:
beowulf said:
None of the scenarios presented are real doomsday events. They are downturns, recessions, etc. If you want to plan for a true economic collapse look at Germany in the 1920s. This was BEFORE the depression. In 1914, at the start of World War I, the dollar was worth 4.20 marks. From then on the German currency steadily declined, and in the fall of 1922 it went into freefall. By November 1923 the dollar was at 4.2 trillion marks. People needed wheel barrows full of money to buy a loaf of bread. Yes, the mark was revalued and rose to its former level, but many people lost everything. Not through confiscation, not through stock market drops, but by complete devaluation of the currency. The people who came out somewhat unscathed were those who owned material assets - homes, property, gold, silver, jewelry, etc. A lot of factors led to that hyperinflation, but it has happened since then in other countries. The depression that started in 1929 also had doomsday effects, but in a different manner. If you don't study the past, you are doomed to repeat it. Whatever the next doomsday scenario is, we can't see it yet, but it will happen. Once you accept that fact, you can begin to plan.
Click to expand...




I’ve studied/researched the German hyperinflation period and other hyperinflationary episodes and it’s always scared me, enough that I don’t trust banks and the banking system itself. right now Venezuela is really hurting, here’s a clip from a current article



... At present, the world's highest inflation rate is in Venezuela, where the annual rate is 15,657%. Venezuela's bout of hyperinflation began on November 13, 2016, when the monthly inflation rate first breached the 50% per month hyperinflation threshold.
 
Dog food? Dogs in Venezuela? There are reports of people resorting to eating dogs in Venezuela, but I am not sure if there's anything but skin and bones on these miserable dogs.

It's mind boggling how a despot could single-handedly drive a country to ruin, and left such a legacy 5 years after he died.

venezuela.jpg
 
beowulf said:
None of the scenarios presented are real doomsday events. They are downturns, recessions, etc. If you want to plan for a true economic collapse look at Germany in the 1920s. This was BEFORE the depression. In 1914, at the start of World War I, the dollar was worth 4.20 marks. From then on the German currency steadily declined, and in the fall of 1922 it went into freefall. By November 1923 the dollar was at 4.2 trillion marks. People needed wheel barrows full of money to buy a loaf of bread. Yes, the mark was revalued and rose to its former level, but many people lost everything. Not through confiscation, not through stock market drops, but by complete devaluation of the currency. The people who came out somewhat unscathed were those who owned material assets - homes, property, gold, silver, jewelry, etc. A lot of factors led to that hyperinflation, but it has happened since then in other countries. The depression that started in 1929 also had doomsday effects, but in a different manner. If you don't study the past, you are doomed to repeat it. Whatever the next doomsday scenario is, we can't see it yet, but it will happen. Once you accept that fact, you can begin to plan.
Click to expand...
yeah VenezUela can’t feed their own people, might as well eat the dogs. I would hate to be living in Venezuela now.
 
Still getting used to this. That reply was meant for the dogs lol. Yes we hear the stories about Germany. I live in the Bay Area. My house has gone up 35% in one year. I could never have imagined that. That is a result of inflation. Could we not have the same thing happen here with the Fed printing so much money out of nothing.
 
NW-Bound said:
Dog food? Dogs in Venezuela? There are reports of people resorting to eating dogs in Venezuela, but I am not sure if there's anything but skin and bones on these miserable dogs.

It's mind boggling how a despot could single-handedly drive a country to ruin, and left such a legacy 5 years after he died.

venezuela.jpg
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree. Venezuela can´t afford to feed their own. Single despot, yeah amazing how people let that happen. Same thing happens in Nicaragua with Ortega. He lost three elections, and then won the election by making a deal with the former president Aleman who was under house arrest for corruption. It split the party, and as a result, he was elected again, and now anytime there is an election, he wins through corruption and any Sandinista festival will say it started in 1979 totally erasing the Democratically elected years of the Chamorro presidency.
 
beowulf said:
Whatever the next doomsday scenario is, we can't see it yet, but it will happen. Once you accept that fact, you can begin to plan.
Click to expand...

There is no plan for many different doomsday scenarios. Nothing is 100%, not even a survival bunker in the wilderness.

Accept that there will always be risk that you can't prepare for, and don't worry about it.
 
Last edited:
It’s impossible to plan for every scenario. And being afraid of every possible thing that can go wrong will drive you crazy.

As to house prices, other than during periods of high inflation, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand. Once again, the old saw of location, location, location. The more people want to live somewhere, the higher the prices will get. Especially when you have a lot of wealthy people who can afford to buy. We could not afford to buy the house we live in now. Nor can we afford to sell it, as all the prices have risen about the same percentage where we are. It’s nice to think you can always downsize and move to a lower cost of living area, but it’s lower cost of living with lower house prices for a reason. The trade off in lifestyle isn’t always worth it.
 
brewer12345 said:
Squirrel in my case. Then again...
Click to expand...

Squirrel, squirrel gravy,and biscuits. I had it once, but it was a welcome staple of my in laws years ago. I much rather feast upon squirrel than dog, or dog food, for sure. Back in March, the annual "game feed" at the sportsmen club, had squirrel scampi as a dish. Don't knock it if you haven't tried it.
 
Last edited:
beowulf said:
It’s impossible to plan for every scenario. And being afraid of every possible thing that can go wrong will drive you crazy.

As to house prices, other than during periods of high inflation, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand. Once again, the old saw of location, location, location. The more people want to live somewhere, the higher the prices will get. Especially when you have a lot of wealthy people who can afford to buy. We could not afford to buy the house we live in now. Nor can we afford to sell it, as all the prices have risen about the same percentage where we are. It’s nice to think you can always downsize and move to a lower cost of living area, but it’s lower cost of living with lower house prices for a reason. The trade off in lifestyle isn’t always worth it.
Click to expand...


It depends.In retirement many people downsize their expenses from HCOL to MCOL or LCOL. This is different than working where job opportunities tend to be much greater in HCOL areas.
We went from a HCOL to a MCOL area which has many amenities and things to do, although not everything the HCOL area had to offer.
This still works for us, as we couldn't have retired long term in the HCOL area.
Our dwelling is 1,700 more sq ft for $1,600 less monies as one example.
 
Winemaker said:
Squirrel, squirrel gravy,and biscuits. I had it once, but it was a welcome staple of my in laws years ago. I much rather feast upon squirrel than dog, or dog food, for sure. Back in March, the annual "game feed" at the sportsmen club, had squirrel scampi as a dish. Don't knock it if you haven't tried it.
Click to expand...

So you had squirrel once. How many times have you eaten dog? Which brands of dog food have you tried so far?
 
DH’s mom grew up on squirrel during the depression, and DH ate it many a time when visiting his grandparents.

I believe squirrel is a traditional ingredient in Brunswick stew and I suspect I’ve had it that way when a kid because I loved the stew. I do remember my Grandpa serving straight squirrel a couple of times and my mom being enthusiastic, but I think I was too squeamish.
 
Back when my gal was living in a double door VW van and picking rocks for a (marginal) living she ate squirrel. Says it was cooked in 7-up and was quite good. Again, may be a case of hunger being the best spice.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

S
Bonds Suc&k...
6 7 8
Replies
177
Views
11K
Out-to-Lunch
Out-to-Lunch
2
Reducing stock exposure in Retirement, age 60+
4 5 6
Replies
144
Views
9K
Onda
O
Yoheadden
How to decide if you can live off investments or need to draw them down
2 3 4
Replies
93
Views
8K
pb4uski
pb4uski
K
asset location and allocation
Replies
13
Views
931
Montecfo
M
Tranquility Base
Borrowing Against Investment Portfolio For Home Purchase
Replies
22
Views
862
Route246
R

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom