LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

So I thought I should comment on DGS again today. It is trading below where I bought it on June 5th and well below where I sold it on June 6th. I still own the same number of shares I owned on June 4th.

One may well ask: Since it is trading lower than you bought it the other day, why not buy more again today? That is, if the price on Tuesday was good enough to buy, why not buy again at a lower price available on Thursday?

I thought about this inconsistency and I can only say that today on Thursday, DGS is doing what everything else is doing. It is not bucking the daily trend with other foreign ETFs and emerging markets ETFs down quite a bit. It is not sticking out like a sore thumb which it did a couple days ago on Tuesday. So I just don't feel compelled to buy any DGS shares today.

Now what would make the whole EM sector stick out to me would be a drop today in the 3% or so range which I suppose could still happen. A 3% drop over 2 or 3 days would not stick out and I wouldn't want to buy any shares then either. 933
 
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OK, I succumbed to some temptation. Late this afternoon I sold a Total US Stock Market Index ETF and bought some DGS anyways below the price I paid on June 5, but also fewer shares than I bought back then. No commissions and no taxes for either of these trades.

I guess this was a compromise to myself since it was an equity for equity trade and towards getting my portfolio back into the US:foreign balance that I desire. But what tipped me over the edge was that I sold SPTM which was up more than VTI was down at the time. Both SPTM and VTI are total US stock market index ETFs, so should move about the same. When they move differently, my brain perks up. This could be my downfall though.

I have some DGS available to sell with no commission tomorrow or in the near future if DGS goes up spectacularly.
 
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It should be an interesting week with the FOMC meeting, the NK meeting, and the dissing of the major trading partners of the USA. And if that isn't stressful enough, I intend to buy a new car this week, too.

So I will probably end up selling equities in my taxable account to get the cash for the car, but I see lots of 0%-interest loan incentives, too. 267

Good luck to all this week!
 
So all the news is out and nothing really happened, except I bought a car with a loan of 0% interest.

I did put the max I could though on my 2% cash-back credit card to get a little kicker. I sold some shares of VV large-cap index) in order to pay off most of the upcoming credit card charge early. 690
 
LOL! said:
OK, I succumbed to some temptation. Late this afternoon I sold a Total US Stock Market Index ETF and bought some DGS ....
Click to expand...
So this trade back on June 7th was a bust. DGS is down about 2% and Total US Stock Market is up slightly since then.

It's a small hole, but a hole nevertheless. I don't have any ideas right now that would fill in the hole. 005
 
Time for a short update or spin on the recent trades. The DGS I bought on 6/7 is down more than 5%, so that is a total bust. So how I can spin this to make me feel better? Here goes ...

Three things:

1. The total return of DGS held for all of 2018 so far YTD is listed as -5.48% at morningstar.com. My return is -3.65%, so almost a full 2% better because of market timing.

2. I sold DGS in a Roth at a profit back in February and bought is back in a tax-deferred account. So I got those gains tax-free, but the subsequent losses will reduce my future taxes in that tax-deferred account.

3. The overall portfolio is still ahead of most of its benchmarks. It does lag a benchmark that has no foreign equities which makes sense since international stocks are a sore spot right now. Things could be worse I suppose.

768

The above does make me feel enough better, that I might buy some more DGS later this week.
 
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421

This morning I did a little reinvesting of dividends that were recently paid. It is nice that the markets dropped since things went ex-dividend, so I get to use the money to buy at lower prices.

But no major purchases ... just a little bit of this and a little bit of that.

One problem with ETFs is that the ex-dividend date and the payable date are separated by 5 days and during those 5 days I have to be careful when checking my asset allocation numbers to include the cash that will be appearing. But with the recent market swoon and the dividends, I think I am underweight in equities, so I need to buy more. I just wish there was a big dump that would make me want to do that.
 
clifp said:
How much for the newsletter?

When you get informercial finished please post it. Make sure to include some hot girls in the commercial since I doubt there will be many viewers otherwise.
Click to expand...


sorry i am a Betty White fan


a great cheese-cake will win me
 
aja8888 said:
Why are you trashing up LOL's investment thread with this:confused:?
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Ha! Ha! You have to go back to the very beginning of this thread to see the reason for Betty White. :)
 
It is probably time for an update to the Market Timing Newsletter.

Basically, I have made no transactions since the last posting of transactions in early June except for some token reinvestment of dividends. I spent the June quarterly dividends on vacations, a bit for part of a new car, summer college tuition, so they were not really reinvested.

The portfolio was cooking along ahead of its benchmarks until today when international equities dropped almost 2% and domestic equities dropped about half a percent.

The portfolio has almost 50% of equities in international which are down about 4% for 2018 while US equities are up 8%. Despite this 12% difference in return, earlier market timing in 2018 kept the portfolio ahead of the benchmarks until today. Now the portfolio slightly trails its benchmarks.

So what is going to happen? I cannot predict the future, so I don't know. I don't have any trades planned though, so I am just sitting tight right now. I may have to rebalance into international though next week which is not looking to me like a good move. 554
 
So today is a rebalancing day where I need to buy equities. Since emerging markets have done terrible and set a new 52-week low, I bought some DGS (small-cap emerging markets) a moment ago. It was down more than 3% from yesterday. If DGS drops more, then I will just suck it up and buy some more. If it goes up by more than 1.5% in the next few days, I might sell it. 028
 
not tilt towards consumer staples , ( as i am tending to do )

i am looking for good value in the consumer staples mainly in the small and mid cap sectors realizing there is also potential for the take-over of solid little companies , to prop up less efficient companies' balance sheets ( while debt is still relatively cheap )
 
Well, the dollar's 6% rise this year is a factor. It makes non-US assets look like they have gone down, regardless of their performance in local currency. But it also makes international assets cheaper for those who want to buy. If your 4% decline number is correct (As a passive guy I haven't checked it.) for international markets, then in local currency they are flat or a little better than flat.

The question, really, is where the value of the dollar is today compared to where it will be in the future. My long term belief, mentioned here before, is for a decline. If that's right, you and I with our 50% allocation will be happy guys.
 
LOL! said:
So today is a rebalancing day where I need to buy equities. Since emerging markets have done terrible and set a new 52-week low, I bought some DGS (small-cap emerging markets) a moment ago. It was down more than 3% from yesterday. If DGS drops more, then I will just suck it up and buy some more. If it goes up by more than 1.5% in the next few days, I might sell it. 028
Click to expand...

I have quite a bit of international equity, particularly EM, and it has been a drag on the portfolio performance (5% YTD as of Aug 1, but that has been evaporating).

So, why am I a masochist and keep throwing more money at it, like you do? Just bought a bit short of $100K of EM in recent days, including today. I now pray the market god to have mercy after making this sacrificial offering.
 
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Edited the earlier post to say that the $100K total included recent purchases a couple of days earlier, not just today.

Despite my purchase, or perhaps because of it, EM kept declining. We are both toastally doomed.
 
since the trend hasn't ended , only hit a predictable speed bump , how can you claim doom .

did you have a hard time limit for the outcome ( say needing to pay a large bill ) :confused:

( however i do try to buy small and more often when going against a trend )
 
NW-Bound said:
... Despite my purchase, or perhaps because of it, EM kept declining. We are both toastally doomed.
Click to expand...
Wow. That's pretty apocalyptic.

I have about $50K identifiable in emerging market fund holdings as part of a small test portfolio using DFA funds. I have no idea how they've done so far this year and don't care. I will probably look briefly at performance when we review the portfolio at year end, but I have absolutely no interest in tracking random and noisy signals. YMMV, of course.
 
Oz investor said:
since the trend hasn't ended , only hit a predictable speed bump , how can you claim doom .

did you have a hard time limit for the outcome ( say needing to pay a large bill ) :confused:
Click to expand...
I do not have a hard time limit for the outcome. But if this is just a speed bump, then I would not mind selling at the top of the bump.
 
Just trying to scare LOL. :)

I still have more than 12 years of living expenses in cash, and that is assuming SS is void and defunct.
 
in Australia 'speed bumps ' are often sarcastically named nasty dips

if you survive the suspension breakage all is well ( you get there slower but with your eyes wide open )

reality is , if the EMs don't grow the global economy is toast ( who else will buy the exports )
 
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NW-Bound said:
Just trying to scare LOL. :)

I still have more than 12 years of living expenses in cash, and that is assuming SS is void and defunct.
Click to expand...

the world is scary enough if you remove the rose-coloured glasses .


nice to see you have factored in a lifestyle without SS ( that is entirely possible )
 
What would be scary is if I develop a serious illness that can kill me before I even reach 70. That happens more frequently than people want to admit.
 
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