2018 YTD investment performance thread

[CardsFan]

Year end IRR: -4.25%

AA: ~55/45

 

[Dtail]

4.85% loss for the year with a 55/45 AA.
Some rookie mistakes at mid year, but looking forward to 2019.

 

[wmc1000]

-11.20% with a 90/5/5 AA

 

[street]

I'm -3.27% which includes expenses for the year also (all in). It wasn't as bad as I thought since expenses is a draw down on portfolio value. It could of been worse I will take it. Being retired for 32 months I'm up 15% from the start, not great but okay, and this is with expenses as well.

 

[pb4uski]

It felt a lot worse

-3.45% return for 2018 (60/35/5 target AA). Could have been a lot worse. My benchmark, the Vanguard Life Strategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) was -4.91%. Another benchmark, Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 Fund (VTTVX) was -5.15%. OTOH, another benchmark, Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) was -2.86%. But overall... I'm happy.

On June 1, I sold all my target maturity bond funds and parked the proceeds in VMMXX.... in retrospect that was a null as VMMXX's performance was about the same as the target maturoty bond fund since June 1.

WR for 2018 was 3.6% vs 4% planned.

End of year balance was down 10% from the highest balance during the year, which was at the end of January. In retrospect, January was a huge feint.

Dec 30	-3.45%
Nov 30	0.60%
Oct 31	-0.73%
Sep 30	4.22%
Aug 31	4.00%
Jul 31	3.04%
Jun 30	1.06%
May 31	1.24%
Apr 30	0.37%
Mar 31	0.12%
Feb 28	0.88%
Jan 31	3.53%

 

[ikubak]

Finished the year -5.23% or as the media would probably say....worst performance since the great recession...worst in a decade...blood in the streets...hide your children!

 

[street]

^ LOL I like that.

 

[camfused]

+4.83%, because I switched to fixed at the end of the summer, in prep for retiring (13 more working days!). I'll get back in some day.

 

[eytonxav]

Down -.92% not including withdrawals for living expenses.

 

[jollystomper]

Finished at -2.6% for the year, YE AA at 36/39/25. I had shifted some stocks to bonds earlier in the year just before retirement, then received a cash inheritance that we parked in a high yield MM account.

Fortunately, due to that inheritance and a 45% savings rate, our NW still ended up +2.7%.

 

[Proteus126]

IRR: -5.9% (80/15/5)
Networth: -2.0%


Neither of the above include inflation, so both numbers move 2.5% more negatively for the true picture.


2019 will be much better.

 

[Andre1969]

Now that the dust has settled, I ran the numbers and find I'm down about 6.95% for 2018.

Looking at it over a longer term like that, definitely softens the blow of the past couple months. At one point in December, I was down about 17.4% off a new peak I hit in September. I'm still about 13.1% off that peak, but hopefully things are on the mend.

And yeah, like many others, for me this has been the worst year since the Great Recession, so the sensationalistic headlines are correct. Still, this is a drop in the bucket, compared to the Great Recession. So far, at least

 

[Ed B]

Now that the dust has settled, I ran the numbers and find I'm down about 6.95% for 2018.

Looking at it over a longer term like that, definitely softens the blow of the past couple months. At one point in December, I was down about 17.4% off a new peak I hit in September. I'm still about 13.1% off that peak, but hopefully things are on the mend.

And yeah, like many others, for me this has been the worst year since the Great Recession, so the sensationalistic headlines are correct. Still, this is a drop in the bucket, compared to the Great Recession. So far, at least

Yeah, my number would be ugly if I measured my 2018 peak to 2018 low.

 

[RetireAge50]

-4.3% 74/20/6

 

[NW-Bound]

-12.78%

90/9/1

Down 12% with a day to go

-11.20% with a 90/5/5 AA

Heh, heh, heh... I probably beat y'all with -11.4% for 2018. Stock AA was as high as 80%, but of course it has lowered itself. Darn! Much of the damage was done in December, as it was nowhere that bad in November.

Surveying the battlefield, i.e. my Quicken screen, I see:

DODFX - Dodge & Cox International Fund - down 18%
VEIEX - Vanguard Emerging Market Fund - down 14.7%
VTRIX - Vanguard International Value - down 14.5%

And on and on.

My own stocks, some are down as bad as -50%, while the good ones are up 17% or less. Most of them have single-digit P/Es now. I never owned the high flyers with stratospheric P/E like Amazon and Netflix, etc... Some of mine now have P/E around 5. That's like CDs with interest rate of 20%.

What the heck? It was not like in 2000, where high P/E or non-E stocks got pummeled, and the "old-economy" stocks rose. They are selling everything now, they don't care.

Totally amazing that I lost as little as that -11.4%.

 

[PatrickA5]

Down 4.91%. Ended year at 52/48. From peak (end of August) down 7.98%.

 

[ScaredtoQuit]

Down 2.1% on my portfolio of dividend stocks and individual bonds. I've been down at least 3 to 4% almost the entire year, including the period when Bogleheads were cheering a 10% total return. The good news is that my projected dividend and interest income increased by 7%!! Would have broke even if it weren't for huge losses realized on GE.

 

[Lsbcal]

I was reluctant to look at this thread because I don't like to feel stupid.
However, it looks like I'm in good company. Oops, that sounded bad but I don't mean to disparage anyone here.

Lost -5.4% on a 60/40 bet. Yech.

I have 2 alternate strategy portfolios I compare against. This is helpful to see where I went right and wrong. Results

1) our portfolio -5.0% (all of these portfolios have same simple bond component)
2) Wellington based portfolio -4.3%
3) simple index portfolio -6.2%

The Wellington based portfolio did better because of low exposure to international and midcaps. Our portfolio beat the simple because of somewhat low exposure to international.

 

[Jeffman52]

Down 5% for the year. Up 17% across the last two years.

 

[SumDay]

DH is up 2.3% and I'm down 2.95%. Boo

 

[Lsbcal]

Finished the year -5.23% or as the media would probably say....worst performance since the great recession...worst in a decade...blood in the streets...hide your children!

LOL!

Wait a minute, the kid grew up and flew the coop. Whew! But I fixed that. I recommended he invest at the beginning of December.

 

[NW-Bound]

In terms of dollar amounts, I lost about this much in the recession of 2002-2003, after the 9/11 attack. But that was a much higher percentage of my stash, compared to now. And it was a big recession, and now is just a bad correction. I have so much more now, and I am thankful for that.

Will I ever have so much that I would lose $1M in a correction (if I live long enough, that is). That would be a nice thought, eh?

 

[NW-Bound]

LOL!

Wait a minute, the kid grew up and flew the coop. Whew! But I fixed that. I recommended he invest at the beginning of December.

My children have been on their own and investing for a while. At Christmas, my son-in-law shared what he lost in dollar amounts. It showed they had more than I thought, which was good. I then told him that I lost 10x that in dollar amount. And that surprised him too.

My son has been quiet about his account. But he made no mention of selling, which is good.

We will be going to my son's home soon, as he is hosting the big family New Year Day lunch party. I will bring this up again, and make sure nobody is selling.

 

[Odiedog]

After the dust settled, I ended up 1% from 12/31/17 but that included $24,500 in additional 401k deposits. AA went from from 90/10 to 75/25 including a move of 3 year's expenses from stock funds to CD ladder when I closed one account and rolled it over to my Vanguard account. Still on course to retire 5/31/19.

 

[Andre1969]

In terms of dollar amounts, I lost about this much in the recession of 2002-2003, after the 9/11 attack. But that was a much higher percentage of my stash, compared to now. And it was a big recession, and now is just a bad correction. I have so much more now, and I am thankful for that.

Will I ever have so much that I would lose $1M in a correction (if I live long enough, that is). That would be a nice thought, eh?

I'm in a similar boat. In the "peak-to-trough" that I've experienced so far (roughly late September through the low point in December), I "lost" about $310,000. During the Great Recession, I probably lost about $225K from peak to trough. Way back in the 2000-2002 timeframe, I lost around $39-40K. So, it's nice to look at percentages, rather than raw numbers!


2018 is the first year that I've ever "lost" over $100K in a month. Twice, in fact! In October my portfolio dropped $121K. In December, it dropped $126K for the whole month, but before the end of the month rebound it was down around $203K at one point!


I guess one day, I just might get to the point where I can lose $1M in a single correction. You could argue, I suppose, that it would be a good problem to have...