Coronavirus - Health aspects

[brewer12345]

The Chinese authorities just announced 1200+ confirmed new cases. I think we are a long way from this one being done.

 

[audreyh1]

I already withdrew this year's expenses, I am OK if it drops for a while.

One reason I like to pull the entire years withdrawal at one time. Besides letting me rebalance just once (if needed), I can totally ignore the markets for a whole year.

 

[brewer12345]

Very early in the investigation of this thing, but this worries me:

"But an academic study published by Chinese researchers in The Lancet on Friday found that of the first 41 confirmed cases of the virus, which causes pneumonia-like symptoms, “less than half had underlying diseases.” Nearly half were 49 years of age or younger. And a third had not been exposed to the wild animal market identified as the source of virus, suggesting that even from the earliest days, it had begun to leap between people.

Fifteen per cent of those first 41 people died."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/wor...uhan-authorities-used-refrigerating-strategy/

 

[Gumby]

Looks like it has started. Below a link to info in real time on the spread of the virus. Two weeks of being contagious with zero symptoms. This increases the potential vectors for spreading the contagion exponentially.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the CDC said today that there was no clear evidence of transmission prior to becoming symptomatic. As reported by ABC News

While a report in the Lancet, published Jan. 24, suggested that people who contract coronavirus might be able spread the disease before they develop symptoms, Messonnier maintained that the CDC has "no clear evidence" of patients' being infectious before symptom onset. For now, the virus' incubation period is believed to be between 2 and 14 days.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-spreading-us-cdc/story?id=68560892

Knowledge could change, but that is apparently the state of it right now.

ETA: About Dr. Messonnier https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership/leaders/ncird.html

 

[RobbieB]

Another thing I'm not going to worry about.

 

[Fermion]

Probably not a great time to be reading "The Stand"...

 

[tmm99]

Probably not a great time to be reading "The Stand"...

This isn't a new film, but if you want to be horrified of contagious viruses spreading, watch Contagion (2011). I was more careful washing hands, using gel, etc for a while after watching this film (with Gwyneth Paltrow, Matt Damon, Jude Law, etc) It's on Netflix.

 

[NW-Bound]

I saw that movie Contagion, and forgot about it.

Just saw again a clip from the movie, which explained how the first casualty of the deadly disease, a character played by Gwyneth Paltrow, unknowingly brought the virus from Hong Kong back to the US.

[VIDEO LINK DELETED]

PS. OOPS. I thought the peril of disease is what is scary, not how it starts.

 

[tmm99]

Dude! NW! Why are you showing this particular clip?

Everyone, don't watch the clip if you intend to watch the film. The clip is from the very end of the film, and watching it will ruin your viewing experience in my opinion!!!

 

[Clone]

I am glad that I am not back on campus! We had a strong contingent of folks from that part of the world, and many of them would travel home over break. A college campus is a perfect environment for spreading contagious diseases. If the virus has a long incubation period with no symptoms, it could clean house on the young, the elderly, and those with compromised systems. We can sit back and watch what happens in China, India, and other densely populated areas for a preview of what could follow here in a few months.

I think I am going to hang onto my dry powder for a bit longer and see where this beast goes.

 

[Rickt]

One reason I like to pull the entire years withdrawal at one time. Besides letting me rebalance just once (if needed), I can totally ignore the markets for a whole year.

+1

 

[brewer12345]

North Korea just closed its border with China. When freaking North Korea closes its border with you, you have problems.

 

[DrRoy]

There have been various health related market scares in the past. To date they did not last long. This market has gone smoothly up for a couple months and is overdue for some correction. This is most likely just the excuse for it.

 

[frayne]

Maybe the earth has achieved some kind of population equilibrium and this is God's way of reducing mankind's carbon footprint and culling the herd. Just an over caffeinated thought this morning, now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

[CRLLS]

This is just one more benefit to being FIREd. There is no need to go into the germ factory called "the office", where people bring their sicknesses into the workplace so they can save their "sick days" for personal use. I don't miss that at all. Now I can limit my public exposure as I wish.

 

[Gumby]

I was just thinking that it is a good thing the young wife is retired from teaching, because if there were a virus going around, she was sure to catch it from one of the little disease vectors in her classroom.

 

[NW-Bound]

... So far, all the sick people outside of China have been to Wuhan. I have not heard of a case outside China where a person gets sick by transmission from a traveler. That additional level of transmission can tell us how contagious it is...

Germany has confirmed the 1st case of a patient who never was in China, but contracted the flu from someone who did.

 

[W2R]

I was just thinking that it is a good thing the young wife is retired from teaching, because if there were a virus going around, she was sure to catch it from one of the little disease vectors in her classroom.

Absolutely!!! Nothing like an elementary school for spreading colds, flu, and other contagious diseases.

Long ago when I was finishing up my BSEE at Texas A&M, sitting next to sleep deprived students who had flown there from all over the country and world, my daughter was in first grade. Between the two of us, we brought home every illness known to man. I think our entire family was sick continually, that entire time.

 

[Brat]

North Korea just closed its border with China. When freaking North Korea closes its border with you, you have problems.

Given the general health of the North Korean population, and their lack of medical resources, when that virus makes it there the death rate will be high. Keep in mind the fact that Chinese health care is far above that in North Korea.

IMHO this virus will make it everywhere, even to North Korea, by May.

From the standpoint of the American economy, the vitality of the Chinese population will impact us from both a supply chain and a market perspective. North Korea not so much.

Keep an eye on political stability in both China and North Korea.

 

[brewer12345]

15 confirmed cases in Mongolia of all places.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Maybe the earth has achieved some kind of population equilibrium and this is God's way of reducing mankind's carbon footprint and culling the herd. Just an over caffeinated thought this morning, now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Well given that an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 Spanish Flu, I'd say that this isn't the first or last possible pandemic.

 

[mickeyd]

I think that the virus is worse than China is reporting to the world. Anyone want to go there and investigate it? Me neither. Prayer may help.

 

[Brat]

I agree, why else would they lock-down major cities? They wouldn't do that for the typical flu.

 

[rayinpenn]

Coronavirus

IMHO the culture in China is such that the truth if unpleasant is denied. The latest: there are 100 deaths and 4,500 infected - call me crazy but I am very concerned. It seems to be spreading way too quickly. I am not an alarmist but I’d love to hear others thoughts...

Ps my mom had one leg affected by polio ... I take nothing for granted.

“From 1916 onward, a polio epidemic appeared each summer in at least one part of the country, with the most serious occurring in the 1940s and 1950s. In the epidemic of 1949, 2,720 deaths from the disease occurred in the United States and 42,173 cases were reported and Canada and the United Kingdom were also affected.”

 

[brewer12345]

I think that the virus is worse than China is reporting to the world. Anyone want to go there and investigate it? Me neither. Prayer may help.

The head of the WHO is heading to or in Beijing to talk to the Chinese authorities. It will be interesting to see if the WHO subsequently declares this to be an emergency.