Coronavirus - Travel impact

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A friend of mine just jumped on deals to Vietnam. It seems that with Chinese tourism down, the tourist prices are down. He had not planned any more travel until Summer at the earliest, but he could not resist.

It may be a good time to go even without the low prices. Chinese tourists are kept out of many countries, so it will not be so crowded. Your friend just has to watch for any virus outbreak where he is visiting. Vietnam only has one hot spot, from what I read. And they already locked down that town of 10,000 people.

Many places are losing big tourism money because the Chinese are not traveling. I read that even LA saw the effect immediately.
 
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No, my 81 yo husband is as healthy as a 20 yo.

Big deal. I have the body of a 30 year old.

Hopefully, my cousin Guido will get it out of the trunk of my car by this weekend.

:)

Or perhaps you can have the body of this Mr. Qiu.

On another thread, LS99 shared the story of this 72-year old body builder in Wuhan, which was published in the Daily Star. Strong as a horse, and refused to wear a mask when his son-in-law asked him to. Admitted to the hospital after a fever. Lasted 4 days.

0_AsiaWire-MuscleVirus-01.jpg
 
Travel Plan Changes Due to Coronavirus?

With or without discounts on Asian trips, I wouldn’t want to entertain the possibility of getting detained in some unknown place/hospital/lockdown by a government and healthcare that I’m not familiar with for two weeks because I have a fever or I’ve been in close contact with someone with the virus, or a super spreader all of a sudden infected a bunch of people in the area, so no thanks.
 
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With or without discounts on Asian trips, I wouldn’t want to entertain the possibility of getting detained in some unknown place/hospital/lockdown by a government and healthcare that I’m not familiar with for two weeks because I have a fever or I’ve been in close contact with someone with the virus, or a super spreader all of a sudden infected a bunch of people in the area, so no thanks.

Not to mention the language barrier. :eek:
 
According to People's Daily in China on weibo.com, a patient in Chengdu had tested positive for the virus, and after recovering, went back to his home to self-quarantine for 10 days. After 10 days, he went back to the hospital on 2/19 for follow-up and tested positive again for the virus. He is now back at the again hospital for treatment. This incident has been confirmed by Sichuan provincial government.

This means that the virus is mutating so quickly that one can get infected again after recovering from the first infection.

Lucky Dude
 
The CDC just issued a travel advisory for Japan (Level 1 out of Level 3, with China at Level 3).

Level 1: "These precautions include avoiding contact with sick people and cleaning hands. The agency also advises people to seek medical advice if they have spent time in Japan during the last two weeks and feel ill with fever or respiratory symptoms."

Yesterday they issued an advisory for Hong Kong.

With Japan's aging population (about 29% is age 65+), an outbreak there will be particularly disastrous.

Lucky Dude
 
According to People's Daily in China on weibo.com, a patient in Chengdu had tested positive for the virus, and after recovering, went back to his home to self-quarantine for 10 days. After 10 days, he went back to the hospital on 2/19 for follow-up and tested positive again for the virus. He is now back at the again hospital for treatment. This incident has been confirmed by Sichuan provincial government.

This means that the virus is mutating so quickly that one can get infected again after recovering from the first infection.

Lucky Dude

Is that true? If so, this is the black swan that will do us in.

And all this time, REWahoo keeps scaring us with his asteroid. Pfft.
 
Iran reported 13 new cases yesterday with a total of 18. 4 has died.
S. Korea reported 89 new cases yesterday with a total of 204. Total 2 died.
US is now 27 adding 12 from Diamond Princess.

This can spread very fast.
 
Iran probably has a ton of cases and the reported ones are the tip of the iceberg.
 
It may be a good time to go even without the low prices. Chinese tourists are kept out of many countries, so it will not be so crowded. Your friend just has to watch for any virus outbreak where he is visiting. Vietnam only has one hot spot, from what I read. And they already locked down that town of 10,000 people.

Many places are losing big tourism money because the Chinese are not traveling. I read that even LA saw the effect immediately.

To go to Asia at this time is pretty much insane for so many reasons,even if it was free.
 
Air Evacuations of Americans

Here's an article describing the air evacuations of Americans.

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/ypsilanti-airline-used-for-coronavirus-evacuations-with-modified-planes

The inside of the aircraft is specially modified designed to transport highly contagious patients. The technology was created by Phoenix Air out of Georgia, at the request of federal agencies during the height of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa six years ago.

"It does not look like any aircraft you've ever been on," said Dent Thompson, Phoenix Air, Sr. Vice President and COO

Thompson says they are the only ones in the world with the capabilities - now being used to evacuate Americans at the center of the Coronavirus Outbreak.
 
Regarding Iran:

Iran’s Health Ministry on Friday reportedly confirmed the coronavirus had spread to several cities nationwide, before adding the flu-like virus might exist in all of them. “Based on existing reports, the spread of the coronavirus started in Qom and with attention to people’s travels has now reached several cities in the country, including Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht, and other cities. And it is possible that it exists in all cities in Iran,” Health Ministry official Minou Mohrez said Friday, Reuters reported, citing the country’s official IRNA news agency. It comes after the Islamic Republic confirmed 18 total cases on Friday, and four patients have died.

Another Web site added that it was certain to start in Qom with Chinese workers there.
 
To go to Asia at this time is pretty much insane for so many reasons,even if it was free.

I do not plan to go even when there's no virus scare, because these places are usually crowded.

When it is not crowded, and the virus has not gotten there, a quick dash seems safe to do. But maybe not. :)
 
I have not cancelled my plans (yet) to go to the Amazon. I went for a yellow fever vaccination today and the nurse said she was going to Hawaii on Tuesday, keeping her travel plans. But she mentioned that there were some cases in Waikiki Beach! So far, I thought the US had no cases "in the wild", but if she's accurate, I think that's no longer true. I didn't start digging on this yet, but just figured I'd see if anyone already had done the research on it.
 
>CDC Level 1: These precautions include avoiding contact with sick people and cleaning hands.

I'm canceling my sick-people tour.
 
Here is how things looked in 2009. There was plenty of flu then even by July 2009 (26 weeks into 2009) from H1N1 (see orange bars):

image1.jpg


We are keeping vacation plans fluid. Might just do a road trip at the worst.
 
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The CDC morning briefing concerning COVID-19:
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-covid-19.html

Takeaways are the CDC expects more positive tests among returnees from the Diamond Princess. Those in the future who choose to travel are subject to any quarantines by local authorities they may encounter. The United States will not continue to intervene or repatriate.

Obviously the hope is the United States can avoid sustained community transmission. Next week the CDC will announce proposals to close schools and businesses should COVID-19 begin to spread here.

The number of asymptomatic individuals is a problem.
 
Is that true? If so, this is the black swan that will do us in.

And all this time, REWahoo keeps scaring us with his asteroid. Pfft.

Here's the link to the story on the weibo.com website that a friend sent me.

https://www.weibo.com/gzdaily?refer_flag=1001030103_&is_hot=1

I don't speak Chinese but a friend sent this to me and says that it's being reported by multiple major newspaper outlets in China, including People's Daily. Given how the Chinese government cracks down on "fake news" (i.e. anything that disagrees with the official government position), the fact that this is allowed on multiple major newspaper outlets without censorship would tend to lend it credence.

Weibo is a major Chinese social network based in Beijing and listed on the NASDAQ.

Lucky Dude
 
I have not cancelled my plans (yet) to go to the Amazon. I went for a yellow fever vaccination today and the nurse said she was going to Hawaii on Tuesday, keeping her travel plans. But she mentioned that there were some cases in Waikiki Beach! So far, I thought the US had no cases "in the wild", but if she's accurate, I think that's no longer true. I didn't start digging on this yet, but just figured I'd see if anyone already had done the research on it.

A few days ago a Japanese couple fell sick and tested positive for the virus after returning to Japan from a 2-week trip to Hawaii. They were asymptomatic while on the trip, and visited Maui and Oahu. They flew on Delta, and Delta is now scrambling to notify around 1000+ passengers who were on the same flights as the couple. The couple stayed at the Grand Waikiki Hotel on Oahu.

Lucky Dude
 
Here's the link to the story on the weibo.com website that a friend sent me.

https://www.weibo.com/gzdaily?refer_flag=1001030103_&is_hot=1

I don't speak Chinese but a friend sent this to me and says that it's being reported by multiple major newspaper outlets in China, including People's Daily. Given how the Chinese government cracks down on "fake news" (i.e. anything that disagrees with the official government position), the fact that this is allowed on multiple major newspaper outlets without censorship would tend to lend it credence.

Weibo is a major Chinese social network based in Beijing and listed on the NASDAQ.

Lucky Dude

Thanks for sharing.

I do not know Chinese either, but Google Translate came to the rescue. I found what I thought was the post, and am enclosing the translation below.

10965-albums220-picture2115.png
 
Thanks for sharing.

I do not know Chinese either, but Google Translate came to the rescue. I found what I thought was the post, and am enclosing the translation below.

10965-albums220-picture2115.png

One of the key phrases in your translation is "a new type of coronavirus." Another Chinese article:
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/02/21/a102782707.html

A purported translation:

NTD Beijing, February 22, 2020] Since mid-January, Chinese medical institutions have published dozens of sequencing data of Wuhan New Crown Virus. However, since January 22, the eve of Wuhan's closure, the Chinese side has suddenly stopped publishing sequencing data to this day. Taiwan scholars said that there is a possibility of mutation of the virus, and non-public data will make the epidemic prevention work difficult.

A few days ago, Mr. Wu Zhongyi of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Taiwan and Pu Muming, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences wrote in the "National Science Review" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences that as of February 10, a total of 55 new coronavirus genome data had been released worldwide. Among them, almost all 31 sequencing data before January 22 were from China, but 24 data after January 22 were from outside China.

According to an article published by the Chinese Academy of Sciences under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the scientific community lacks data on newly isolated viruses in China, making it difficult to determine whether the virus has mutated.

A Chinese scholar's paper on February 18 asserted that as of now, the full-length genomic sequences between virus samples are almost identical, showing that no significant mutations have occurred. However, the main reference of this paper is another Chinese scholar's paper in early February. In other words, this conclusion is based on lagging data.

"Science in China" article pointed out that if it is not known whether the virus has mutated, what kind of mutation has occurred, and whether there are significant differences in the virus between domestic regions, it is difficult for front-line personnel to carry out epidemic prevention work accurately and in accordance with local conditions. To this new unknown epidemic is tantamount to going to the battlefield blindfolded.

The article quoted Wu Zhongyi calling on China to open the release of virus data. He said: "At present, the new coronavirus may have reached its peak and will not evolve anymore; but it may also be ready to enter a dangerous period. Under the uncertainty of polarization, only public data can let scientists know what to do next. go."

In the article, the reason why the Chinese institution stopped publishing the sequencing data is summarized as the "academic achievement dispute" in the Chinese medical community. However, this obviously does not explain why scientists across the country suddenly concealed data from a certain point in time.

The time of January 22 mentioned in this article is special. Prior to this, on January 20th, high levels of the Chinese Communist Party publicly issued instructions on the outbreak. After that, on January 23, Beijing suddenly ordered Wuhan to close the city, and Hubei followed closely behind. It is widely believed that at that time Beijing had realized that the epidemic was out of control.

In order to maintain stability, the CCP has been concealing the epidemic situation, including the data of confirmed cases, the number of deaths, the severity of the disease, the virus incubation period, and so on. It is the object of official cover. Therefore, it is naturally questionable whether the CCP concealed the sudden mutation of the virus.

In fact, the epidemic situation in various places has shown many signs of suspected virus mutations, including the frequent occurrence of ultra-long incubation cases in various places, the accuracy of nucleic acid detection has dropped significantly, and the transmission channels have become increasingly diverse.

As early as January 23, the day after China stopped publishing virus data, Radio Free Asia quoted a patient with "viral pneumonia" in the intensive care unit of Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, saying that the virus he infected was not the officially announced "new corona Virus ", but the symptoms are equally dangerous. And, according to information revealed by his doctor, the hospital's top experts are aware that more than one virus has caused the outbreak.

Wuhan new coronavirus and SARS coronavirus are the same species. Such viruses are susceptible to mutation during transmission, and the mutation speed is very fast, making epidemic prevention very difficult.

(Reporter Zhong Jingming Comprehensive Reporting / Responsible Editor: Ming Xuan)

There are some reports that the coronavirus outbreak in Iran differs substantial from those elsewhere. It should be kept in mind, however, that Taiwanese outlets are quick to condemn CCP actions and attach various negative slants perhaps wholly without merit. Why let a good epidemic go to waste in their internecine struggle.
 
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It surely sounds scary. Could the different strains of virus explain the different levels of illness seen in patients, one shaking it off like a common cold while another person dying in a couple of days? Can the virus evolve inside the same patient, and requires no transmission to mutate? Cancer cells do this inside our body.


I have a question arising from this excerpt:
"Science in China" article pointed out that if it is not known whether the virus has mutated, what kind of mutation has occurred, and whether there are significant differences in the virus between various regions in the country, it is difficult for front-line personnel to carry out epidemic prevention work To this new unknown epidemic is tantamount to going to the battlefield blindfolded...

I wonder how many different treatments have been found. I read that they have used an antiviral drug meant for HIV, and that appeared to work. How many different antiviral drugs are there for doctors to try?
 
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