Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[stepford]

FWIW Even here in the nominal COVID hotbed of California I haven't really seen any panic buying. I did the weekly food shopping yesterday and hit a couple of grocery stores and the local Target.

People seemed to be shopping normally. No masks - I was the only one I saw wearing gloves and a couple of people gave me funny looks. No shortages of paper products, though sanitizing wipes were mostly out of stock (picked up a few Clorox wipes on general principles).

Anyway, panic may yet come but so far it's decidedly non-apocalyptic around here.

 

[Brat]

On a lighter side, Sunday was the last day to buy Girl Scout cookies in my area so as a part of my stock-up for possible quarantine I purchased 10 boxes of Thin Mints. Grandson tried to buy a box from me!

 

[Tiger8693]

We now have three COVID-19 cases in Louisiana, all right here in the New Orleans area. Two days ago we had none, then yesterday one, and today three.

The market doesn't scare me, but this sure does. I want to stay home 24/7 from now on, but don't know if I can persuade F that this would be a good idea.

Well, hold on to your hat. My theory is that the more testing we get, the more cases will be found. The good news is, the more cases found, the lower the mortality rate.

 

[steelyman]

Yeah, same with DH. I encouraged him to keep his appointment this week because sooner is better than later.

Yes, like ripping off the band-aid. People at both offices were keeping their distance (as did I) and the staff were especially diligent at wiping down the exam rooms very thoroughly.

It was still a relief to have the appointments done as scheduled and escape (hopefully) unscathed. I stalk Purell dispensers now and am becoming expert at opening doors with my ass.

[ADDED] I stopped at the local grocery for a few things afterward and noticed that the cashiers were really working to wipe down the touch panel screens used during checkout in between customers. Bravo to them for a job well done! and thank heaven for NFC payments (contactless).

 

[NW-Reader]

Today’s update from King County, WA (Seattle). 10 long term care facilities now with cases. I think they are focusing testing on these facilities; I don’t know how many of the 74 new cases are from there vs. the community at large. For those of you whose area is not yet affected, please think seriously about social distancing. It will make a difference, for you and others. https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/March/10-covid-case-updates.aspx

 

[GenXguy]

I'm sorry, but I am on board the Elon Musk train here. As Al Trombone mentioned a few posts up, the ACTUAL number of people infected is probably several order of magnitude higher than that reported. Considering that, the mortality is probably even lower than the 0.6% being reported in S Korea's numbers. Eventually, this will possibly (probably) be reported much closer to the Flu mortality rate.

In the meantime, the generated panic has started to all but shutdown the world economy.

The mortality rate is actually probably higher than many of the lower figures being thrown around because they are including active cases in the calculation, when many of those people will die, but you have to wait longer. So, I prefer the "deceased" to "recovered" ratio to get a true sense of how many are dying vs. how many are recovering.

In South Korea, we have 58 deaths and 247 recovered. That's a 19% fatality rate AMONG CLOSED CASES. That number has been trending down a little since it was 22% last week. But I don't see it ever dropping to a fraction of 1%!
.

 

[gwraigty]

I got to thinking about how unrealistic self quarantine can be. Cruise ship passengers are housed in military bases but what about routine travelers? I’m down in Florida scheduled to go home next week on the Auto Train. Last night I woke up coughing and thought this could be a problem. Turned out to be a reaction to post nasal drip. I was back out on a 25 mile bike ride this morning. But what if I got a fever and kept coughing? Maybe a cold, maybe the flu, maybe Covid? What do I do? Get on the train exposing passengers and crew? Go to a motel exposing people there and wherever I get food? Drive home if possible exposing one motel and a couple of food stops? No good answers.

I feel your indecision. I'm trying to think this through myself. For a cold/flu, only the sick person (and possibly the caregiver) stays home, usually. Others in the household are still expected to go to work/school. The problem also is the lack of testing kits in sufficient numbers. Protocol is that only the sickest/elderly, etc. get tested. Others are left to guess if they have cold/flu/COVID-19. When a person is confirmed to have it, then there's no doubt - the entire household is on a mandatory quarantine. When they talk about potential exposures being under self-quarantine, it's not made clear if that applies to the whole household or just the person who was exposed.

 

[gwraigty]

Today’s update from King County, WA (Seattle). 10 long term care facilities now with cases. I think they are focusing testing on these facilities; I don’t know how many of the 74 new cases are from there vs. the community at large. For those of you whose area is not yet affected, please think seriously about social distancing. It will make a difference, for you and others. https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/news/2020/March/10-covid-case-updates.aspx

I came home to find a few garbled robocalls saying that all staff/visitors of the nursing home DS works (in Ohio) at are to enter and exit the building only through the front lobby. That's definitely a change, but maybe not extreme enough?

 

[NW-Reader]

Gwraigty, do you know if the place your DS works is telling employees to stay home if they are sick? A health professional I know suggests taking your temperature daily and staying home if you have a fever. My brother the librarian is doing that. He is face to face with many vulnerable people every day.

The care facilities here are limiting or eliminating visits. There are some heartbreaking stories. Behind every number is a real person.

Three cases of coronavirus have been confirmed at the Josephine Caring Community nursing home in Stanwood, and five other residents there are isolated due to possible infection.

As a result, the facility has gone into lockdown, and no family members are being allowed to visit.

"I had a lady in my lobby crying yesterday because she couldn't see her husband who she's been married to for 64 years," Josephine Caring Community CEO Terry Robertson.

 

[Corporateburnout]

MA declared a state of emergency with 51 additional cases since yesterday to bring the total to 92 cases. 70 of these cases are related to the Biogen conference

5 cases cannot be traced to a source so community infections have started.

 

[NW-Bound]

Epidemiologists have resigned to the fact that containment is now simply to slow down the spread of the virus so that the health providers can cope, and be able to save those that can be saved.

We know that the virus hits the elderly hard. In Wuhan, the fatality rate among the 80+ is 21.9%, as reported by WHO. In the outbreak at a nursing home in Kirkland, WA, the current death count is 20, and not all 120 residents have been infected.

The number in Wuhan was CFR (crude fatality rate), while the residents of the WA nursing home were already in bad health, but we can have a rough idea already. The fatality rate is high among the elderly.

The US population currently has 3.7% in the 80+ age group. That's more than 11 million people. If we go down to the 70+ group, it's 9.1% of the population, or 28 million people.

If a large portion of the above group gets infected and needs hospitalization, there are simply not enough hospital beds.


PS. In 2017, the US had a total of 931,000 hospital beds. The occupancy rate usually runs around 85%, so there are not many free beds.

There are only 931,000 x 0.15 = 140,000 extra beds for additional patients. Let's hope that only 0.5% of the 70+ age group get sick enough for hospitalization.

 

[NW-Reader]

I also appreciate that many of the staff at these facilities would face serious hardship if they had to miss work for any length of time. There is some action in WA state to extend unemployment or workers comp to help. Big tech companies that are switching to work from home have said they’ll continue to pay hourly support staff who aren’t needed. Stock market aside, the ripple effects to the economy (different thread, I know) will be enormous.

 

[Alan]

DD works for a big tech company in California and they are making arrangements for tele commuting. Her partner works for Apple and they are already tele commuting, as is Google.

 

[sengsational]

If you acquire immunity, there could be some sense in desiring to get the virus now and be done with it.

I'll take a stab at your side of the idea, Al. Say you have a 60% chance you'll get the virus in the next year. The chance you'll get it when the hospitals are slammed is probably pretty good (meaning bad for your survival). Getting it very eary (like now), wouldn't be as bad as a little later, as the hospitals would probably have room for you, if you needed a ventilator. Getting it 2 weeks from now, I think that's a BIG problem! So if I realized that I had it today, I'd feel much better than if I had it a few weeks or a month from now. Am I going to go out and start licking shopping cart bars, no. No, I will not be doing that. Like most everybody in the world, I'm going to do my darnedest to keep virus-free.

I haven't seen any reliable source saying below freezing temps will kill the virus. Not saying it won't, just not sure I'd go that route without more information.

I'm saying it won't, but I'm not a virologist, and I haven't played one on TV either.

Hot and dry, bro! For library books, put your oven on the lowest setting, like maybe 150, if it goes that low. That's not much hotter than the inside of your car in the summer. Anything item that can survive a summer sun, hot car could probably last for 10 minutes in that 150 oven. I haven't seen any studies, but I bet that would do it (deactivate the virus). Alternatively, you could build yourself a cobalt reactor, that would also do it. But ovens are a bit easier to come by.

 

[gwraigty]

Gwraigty, do you know if the place your DS works is telling employees to stay home if they are sick? A health professional I know suggests taking your temperature daily and staying home if you have a fever. My brother the librarian is doing that. He is face to face with many vulnerable people every day.

The care facilities here are limiting or eliminating visits. There are some heartbreaking stories. Behind every number is a real person.

I'll keep you posted when I find out more, if I can. DS is at work right now. He was diagnosed with Asperger's/autism when he was 5. Sometimes communicating with him can be a challenge. It's like pulling teeth when I don't ask questions in the exact, right way. I'm wondering if they're going to have a nurse posted 24/7 taking temps as people enter.

 

[harllee]

So back on the library books I am getting tomorrow--what if I park my car in the sun and put the books where they will get really hot. It is suppose to be in the 70s here tomorrow. Would that be likely to kill the virus?

 

[Sunset]

Went out today to pick up prescription at Walmart, it was not crowded and everyone was shopping normally.
I did keep my leather gloves on as much as possible, and used the wipe on the cart handle (sorry lickers ).

Then I went to the grocery store, at checkout, the self checkout lines were active and so I lined up in a long line, as they had fewer served checkout lines. It seemed better than touching the screen where everyone else has been touching it all day.

No panic at either store.

Went home and found out IL jumped from 11 to 18 cases today, spreading outside of Chicagoland area.
The Governor complained about the lack of testing and the multi-week delay of testing kits.

 

[NW-Reader]

He was diagnosed with Asperger's/autism when he was 5. Sometimes communicating with him can be a challenge. It's like pulling teeth when I don't ask questions in the exact, right way.

So was our DS, now 23, so I TOTALLY get that! I think you’re probably right that they’re setting up a temp check.

 

[fh2000]

Went out today to pick up prescription at Walmart, it was not crowded and everyone was shopping normally.
I did keep my leather gloves on as much as possible, and used the wipe on the cart handle (sorry lickers ).

Then I went to the grocery store, at checkout, the self checkout lines were active and so I lined up in a long line, as they had fewer served checkout lines. It seemed better than touching the screen where everyone else has been touching it all day.

No panic at either store.

Went home and found out IL jumped from 11 to 18 cases today, spreading outside of Chicagoland area.
The Governor complained about the lack of testing and the multi-week delay of testing kits.

Just watched the task force update live streaming, presided over by VP.
They said there are over a million test kits out already, and 4 million more will be sent by the end of this week.

The recommendation of getting tested is to call your primary doctor. LabCorp website states that you will need to call your doctor, and get a swab from your doctor, and doctor's office need to send the sealed swab to LabCorp. They will then test. So, I think the whole process, and get the result back will be days if not a couple of weeks.

Someone yelled out will we have a 'drive-thru' test capability, referring to how S Korea set up to test their citizens. No answer was given. I suspect it is not likely, and the path to get tested is going to be long and difficult.

I am telling myself. Do not get sick. Wash hands. Stay home.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Either in this thread or a related one, someone linked to an email from a researcher recommending zinc lozenges for viral infections. Here is an interesting article (from 2018) about zinc deficiencies in nursing home patients and how it makes them more susceptible to infections:

"And according to a study published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, a simple solution to reducing the rates of infection may be administering zinc supplementation to the elderly in nursing homes who need it.

Zinc is an essential trace mineral with invaluable health benefits. It helps the immune system function properly. Zinc deficiency has been reported to negatively affect immunity and increase the likelihood of infectious diseases, which is a major cause of death in the elderly.
Older people tend to have lower zinc levels and low zinc intake. Reportedly, a high proportion of nursing home elderly (30%) have low serum zinc concentrations at baseline and after one year of follow up...Those with low zinc had a significantly higher incidence and longer duration of pneumonia, as well as all-cause mortality, than did those with adequate serum zinc concentrations.."

https://www.mcknights.com/marketplace/the-importance-of-zinc-especially-for-the-elderly/

 

[TromboneAl]

I did keep my leather gloves on as much as possible,

So, you're not worried about Mad Cow?

 

[TromboneAl]

Gosh, if it were me I wouldn't cancel it unless you felt your chances of exposure are high. You are going to a medical facility. You haven't traveled recently. They should have some procedures in place to manage exposure. You can always call them and talk to them about any concerns.

Good advice, but my concern was about the two hotels and four restaurants that I would be visiting. But as I said, I'm not canceling.

 

[audreyh1]

Good advice, but my concern was about the two hotels and four restaurants that I would be visiting. But as I said, I'm not canceling.

Well, having to stay in hotels and eat in restaurants does make it tougher.

On our long distance road trip, we plan to take our own food, mainly to save time, but we’ve also got to empty the fridge. We’ll probably spend the nights in smaller towns.

 

[fh2000]

NY state basically imposed martial law in a 1 mile radius around a spot in New Rochelle today. National Guard deployment and everything. I do not like that idea at all, but that will likely not be a viable strategy for more than a few hot spots because there just aren't that many guardsmen relative to the total population. Wonder if they have sufficient protective equipment for the poor guardsmen called up?

Watch Jake Tapper interview NY Governor about this:

 

[TromboneAl]

>This is important information. If you acquire immunity, there could be some sense in desiring to get the virus now and be done with it.

That would be pure craziness since no one knows how the virus will affect them . The bad cases result in ARDS which is a death sentence .

Sorry for the delay in responding. I just got back from a mosh pit at a rave.

Ha ha. But you're right.

But looking ahead, how many extroverts (not me), after a month of staying in their house, are going to say, "I can't take it anymore. Screw it. I'm going to the local COVID party"?