Calming thoughts, maybe

[TheHobbit]

Yup. Exactly the same for us. Each time it gets easier to be patient.

I feel for the newbies, though, who filled out those silly "risk tolerance assessment" questionnaires on the internet and thought they meant something. There's a Mike Tyson quotation that is relevant: "Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face." Hang in there guys; the next time it will be easier.

+1, honestly the calmest folks in this are the retirees. Many accumulators are acting as if this is bigger than WW2, 9/11 and 2008 combined. I’m out at a cafe, people are here, chatting as usual, though a tad less crowded which is probably a good thing. The sun is shining, the birds are singing.... the world will go on.

 

[38Chevy454]

I will add some calming thoughts:
1) The economy in the US is at near record levels for low unemployment.
2) Company profits are doing well.
3) As opposed to the 2008 crisis which was driven in large part by the mortgage meltdown financial crisis, we do not have that now. What we have now is a short term cause and effect from the Covid19 virus.
4) Increased volatility is a normal consequence of the unsettling and panic driven news recently.
I do agree that there can be some effects on unemployment if companies decrease production, and profits can go down. However I still believe the fundamental economic numbers and outlook for the US are good. It will recover once the number of Covid19 cases seems to settle out and go back down, or if some medicinal help is found.

 

[candrew]

I'm not worried. That Ramen noodle package is looking better and better .

So is the dumpster behind that Italian joint down the street!

 

[ER Eddie]

Per Sir John Templeton: " 'This time is different.' are the four most expensive words in investing."

Buffett: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

Bogle: "Don't just do something. Stand there."

There's a Mike Tyson quotation that is relevant: "Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face."

Ha! Those are some good quotes.

 

[MRG]

So is the dumpster behind that Italian joint down the street!

Sorry they are locked!

 

[Athena61]

Just wanted to add my thanks for posting this. Taking a deep calming breath and reminding myself that my life is fine today, and will probable be fine tomorrow. My bbf’s mother was always one to say, “this too shall pass”. She used to say also, “by next year at this time you’ll have a whole new set of problems.” ��

 

[CaptTom]

I'm not worried. That Ramen noodle package is looking better and better .

That shelf was empty at the supermarket today. But the oddest empty shelf was chicken. There wasn't a scrap of fresh chicken meat in the store, according to the staff. TP I can understand. Ramon noodles too. Bottled water had me scratching my head. But chicken?? Why stock up on that??

This just reinforces my belief that there's a bit of over-reaction going on.

 

[OldShooter]

... This just reinforces my belief that there's a bit of over-reaction going on.

Just a bit?!??!

 

[Lewis Clark]

That shelf was empty at the supermarket today. But the oddest empty shelf was chicken. There wasn't a scrap of fresh chicken meat in the store, according to the staff. TP I can understand. Ramon noodles too. Bottled water had me scratching my head. But chicken?? Why stock up on that??

This just reinforces my belief that there's a bit of over-reaction going on.

Seems like all the panic buying should be driving some stock prices higher.

 

[ckelly78z]

The three life events that the OP referred to all came out of the ruins, and forged stronger bonds, and a quick recovery for each.

"That which you survive, makes you stronger".

 

[Winemaker]

There is a strong virus(that we can blame) that has killed less than 50 people in the US since January 1st, 37 of them in a nursing home in Washington state. No one under 50 has died, with less than 2200 confirmed cases.

We never panicked like this when the Swine and H1N1 flu hit in 2009, and 122 million in the US were reported to have been afflicted, and 4000 died, over the May to August 2009 period , when the pandemic was officially over. Nobody suffered a shortage of toilet paper.

 

[brewer12345]

Frankly, the movements of the stock market are the least of my worries. The kids came home a bit of a mess because school was cancelled and they have been hearing all kinds of stuff. My 13 YO asked me if we have enough food for a couple weeks (I pointed out that we can barely move around the basement because of all the stuff piled up down there). My more vulnerable elderly neighbors may need help. Every retail store locally is a mob scene so God forbid you need a gallon of milk. Stock market flopping around is secondary.

 

[Lewis Clark]

Consider how many people die from traffic crashes every day. More than 3,000 every day according to this source. Yet few of us even blink an eye.
https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

We've become insensitive to regular and frequent preventable causes of death, then panic when a previously unknown cause affects much smaller numbers of people. Our priorities are sometimes misguided.

I was visiting Christchurch, New Zealand in March 2019 on the day of the mass shooting - the first in New Zealand. While the locals were understandably in shock, I was sad and somewhat embarrassed to notice how desensitized I was to the event, because they are all too frequent here in the USA.

 

[Perryinva]

This has probably already been posted elsewhere, but the CDC estimates this season, from Oct 2019 to March 2020, regular annual flu to be the cause of 370,000 to 670,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 to 55,000 deaths. And huge percentages of the population still don’t get a usually free flu shot. Crazy.

 

[target2019]

I get my free flu shot each year. If I even had flu in last 5 years, it was so mild I don't have the event stored in memory. Or maybe I had flu and it affected my memory?

 

[Lewis Clark]

With all the extra hand washing going on, perhaps we will have fewer cases of the flu and other illnesses this year.

 

[Nemo2]

With all the extra hand washing going on, perhaps we will have fewer cases of the flu and other illnesses this year.

And cleaner fingernails worldwide.

 

[EastWest Gal]

Here is another calming thought:

This is the time we can step back and breathe. Everything in my life has been cancelled for at least two weeks. I'm actually excited for this down time. Watching the birds, planting the garden, cooking great meals for my small family. My son is 28 and still living at home. This period of social isolation suits us all well.

 

[CaptTom]

Here is another calming thought:

This is the time we can step back and breathe. Everything in my life has been cancelled for at least two weeks. I'm actually excited for this down time. Watching the birds, planting the garden, cooking great meals for my small family. My son is 28 and still living at home. This period of social isolation suits us all well.

I have to admit I'm a bit relieved not to have to attend the two functions I had scheduled today, and one Monday, which were cancelled.

I could get used to this.

 

[Rianne]

Here is another calming thought:

This is the time we can step back and breathe. Everything in my life has been cancelled for at least two weeks. I'm actually excited for this down time. Watching the birds, planting the garden, cooking great meals for my small family. My son is 28 and still living at home. This period of social isolation suits us all well.

Right! Pressure lifted. Can avoid talking to the elders at the YMCA without being rude. Cooking home meals, roasted chicken and veggies. Sad part is looking at Italy "live cam" in Rome, Florence and Venice. Family there on lock down.

 

[Golfquest20]

Yes, this is a good read. Nice day here in the Northeast, DH and I plan to go for a hike in the woods. We have a secluded spot where few others venture. Shouldn’t be much corona floating about there, right? On the other hand, our winter was mild so what about a tick infestation ??

No, really, enjoying this thread. Life will in fact go on

 

[pacergal]

Today, I can sit safely at home and watch the snow. News is off, DH and DS here, and we are having great conversations. Very peaceful.

 

[candrew]

Today, I can sit safely at home and watch the snow. News is off, DH and DS here, and we are having great conversations. Very peaceful.

Sounds wonderful. After a week of gloomy skies and rain here in the Phoenix metro area, today we have cloudless blue skies and bright sunshine. I'm at the tail end of recovering from a nasty cold, so I think that I'll bask outdoors for a bit in the sunshine and putter in our backyard herb garden.

 

[unclemick]

This is a chart from my investment class that I have posted before, but I think it is relevant here:

​

The punch line is that volatility is not risk, SORR excepted. The real risk is missing out on long-term equity growth by being afraid of volatility. Note that the Y-axis is logarithmic.

1966 to 1982 looked a lot flatter to me in my personal experience. So while I putzed along dollar cost averaging 60/40 I also ran side er experiments? in land, rental RE, coins, semi precious gems, REIT's and other dividend stocks.

Stay the course index 60/40 won the day while I was busy trying to 'get a handle' on the situation of the moment and not paying attention to the boring long term ho hum index funds.

heh heh heh - my born again Boglehead conversion was a long slow look in the review mirror not an ah ha moment.

 

[teejayevans]

That shelf was empty at the supermarket today. But the oddest empty shelf was chicken. There wasn't a scrap of fresh chicken meat in the store, according to the staff. TP I can understand. Ramon noodles too. Bottled water had me scratching my head. But chicken?? Why stock up on that??

Key ingredient for chicken noodle soup, an old fashioned cure all.