COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

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The surge is starting to break in European countries that have shutdown as expected. I hope they enforce the shutdown better than they have. There is talk going around now that they will lift the stay at home requirements at the federal level for those that are in the low risk group and return to work and also those that have recovered even though it may severely risk those in the high risk category. Some people seem to feel that it's not worth risking the entire economy to save 2-3 percent of the population. I personally think the economy could sustain a 30 day shutdown and we should wait the full period and then gradually phase back businesses. I really fail to see why some officials are already giving up after one week of a limited shutdown.

There are no stay at home requirements at the Federal level, they are all state level. What are you talking about?
 
There are no stay at home requirements at the Federal level, they are all state level. What are you talking about?
It's the first statement from the White House, and reiterated on page 2. Sure we can all ignore it, but that's decidedly not what we're being asked to do at the Federal, State or Local level. Every day the WhiteHouse daily briefings repeatedly ask all Americans to follow the recommendations of State and Local. You don't think Governors and (large city) Mayors are coordinating with DC at all?

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03.16.20_15-Days-to-slow-the-spread-White-House-2-1024x791.png
 
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Cuomo's campaign to slow COVID-19's spread — which include the "PAUSE" ordering non-essential workers home until further notice — may be coupled with an economic plan to reintroduce less vulnerable New Yorkers back into the workforce, the governor said.

"You can't stop the economy forever," said Cuomo. "We also have to start to plan the pivot back to economic functionality."

Cuomo's financial advisors will explore the economic strategy put forth by Dr. David L. Katz, founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, that calls for isolating only those most vulnerable to COVID-19. In a New York Times op-ed published Friday, Katz argued "the herd approach" — relying on those with robust immune systems to act as "dead ends" for the virus — would provide protection to those more vulnerable while lessening the economic cost of a complete economic halt.

"I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life ... [will be] possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself." Katz wrote.

Instead of spreading thin a dwindling health care and testing supplies, Katz suggested using research to better determine who was likely to survive contact with COVID-19 and send them back into the workforce.

"This focus on a much smaller portion of the population would allow most of society to return to life as usual and perhaps prevent vast segments of the economy from collapsing," Katz opined.

"A pivot right now from trying to protect all people to focusing on the most vulnerable remains entirely plausible."

The "herd immunity strategy" relies on the ability to identify those who have self-resolved from COVID-19, which is why Cuomo requested and received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to test means of finding coronavirus antibodies in human plasma.

"If you knew that, you would know who is now immune to the virus and who you could send back to work," Cuomo explained, adding the move might better protect those at greater risk.

"If you isolate all people you may be exposing the more vulnerable people."

The FDA also approved the New York State Department of Health's request to begin testing vulnerable COVID-10 patients this week with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin treatments, Cuomo announced.
Researchers in France who treated a small number of people with the two drugs recently found the combination cured 100 percent of their patients within six days, the Wall Street Journal report.

"It's only a trial, for people in serious condition," said Cuomo. "We think it shows promise."

Cuomo's financial advisors Steven M. Cohen, an executive vice president at Forbes, and Bill Mulrow, a Blackstone senior advisor, will work on the state's economic exit strategy, he said.

"I’ve very proud of the measures we’ve taken," the governor said. "But I’m also very aware that it’s unsustainable to run this state with the economy slowed down."
https://patch.com/new-york/new-york...erm=business&utm_campaign=recirc&utm_content=
 
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Chuck, Tennessee and Virginia. I don’t think realistically any will try to open.
 
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I've been wondering the same thing. From what I've read China is going back to work, so we have that model? China and S Korea have clearly peaked, S Korea has been far more effective than most other countries it appears.

Arguably once we think the healthcare system can handle the projected cases (ventilators, PPE, tests, etc.), everything could re-open. That timeline might be somewhere between the unfettered peak (which appears it will overwhelm healthcare and lead to more deaths) and the theoretical flatten the curve scenario.

And for businesses closing, eventually more products & services become essential, not just the current obvious ones like grocery, pharmacy, banks, hardware stores, etc. I suspect some businesses will start "cheating" open when they get desperate which will lead to others. The closings are basically voluntary now, not very enforceable.

We live in interesting times.

Midpack
Concur with everything you stated. I would add, hopefully our Nation comes together through this; and, it also seems that most most lives will never be the same. At least in the sense that how "we as a country" save for a rainy day.
 
It's the first statement from the White House, and reiterated on page 2. Sure we can all ignore it, but that's decidedly not what we're being asked to do at the Federal, State or Local level. Every day the WhiteHouse daily briefings repeatedly ask all Americans to follow the recommendations of State and Local. You don't think Governors and (large city) Mayors are coordinating with DC at all?

15-days.jpg

03.16.20_15-Days-to-slow-the-spread-White-House-2-1024x791.png

Yes, these are guidelines, not orders (i.e., requirements) like the Governors and Mayors are issuing.
 
In early April, that's about when the US will start to see the very worst horror stories that were seen in Italy.

Unless something changes dramatically, by April 15 we will have around 4,506,752 Confirmed cases. I estimate this as I've been tracking the daily counts, and extrapolate to the future.

I really hope I'm wrong.

Of course this may be a self limiting thing, as once it get really bad, folks will take it more serious and stop the Covid-19 parties, wear masks, keep a distance.
 
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Of course this may be a self limiting thing, as once it get really bad, folks will take it more serious and stop the Covid-19 parties, wear masks, keep a distance.
I wouldn't bank on it. The youth and young adults in this country will rebel. I can imagine them deciding to hold COVID-19 parties where they break all protocols for flattening the curve. Videos to be posted on YouTube.
 
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Unless something changes dramatically, by April 15 we will have around 4,506,752 Confirmed cases. I estimate this as I've been tracking the daily counts, and extrapolate to the future.

I really hope I'm wrong.

Of course this may be a self limiting thing, as once it get really bad, folks will take it more serious and stop the Covid-19 parties, wear masks, keep a distance.
Great resource from Johns Hopkins to track the US, world or any country. Click on US and note graph lower right.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
The "herd immunity strategy" relies on the ability to identify those who have self-resolved from COVID-19, which is why Cuomo requested and received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to test means of finding coronavirus antibodies in human plasma.

"If you knew that, you would know who is now immune to the virus and who you could send back to work,"
I think that's a big deal. Unless we get a treatment, antibody tests are our way out of the lockdown.

https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...tdown-exit-strategy-102772-5.html#post2393672
 
Unless something changes dramatically, by April 15 we will have around 4,506,752 Confirmed cases. I estimate this as I've been tracking the daily counts, and extrapolate to the future.

I really hope I'm wrong.

Of course this may be a self limiting thing, as once it get really bad, folks will take it more serious and stop the Covid-19 parties, wear masks, keep a distance.
does that mean that we’re going to have the most cases? We are a large and populous country.

Oh, I see we are already #3! Wow!

I guess the 4+ million you mean worldwide?
 
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Unless something changes dramatically, by April 15 we will have around 4,506,752 Confirmed cases. I estimate this as I've been tracking the daily counts, and extrapolate to the future.

I really hope I'm wrong.

Of course this may be a self limiting thing, as once it get really bad, folks will take it more serious and stop the Covid-19 parties, wear masks, keep a distance.
Probably have that many infected already, if not more.... The ONLY data point that matters IMO is deaths. That's the bottom line. We can't possibly know the true mortality rate given we have zero clue how many are infected. I suspect it's way lower than the current numbers which are skewed by the sick being the group almost exclusively tested.
 
This is an interesting article about a company that sells "smart" thermometers, from which it can gather data regarding high temperatures, compare them to past years and draw conclusions about what they deem "atypical" level of disease. You can clink on the link in the article to get a nationwide map, then search for your county. It will show a graph with the normal range for that location and the real time data for this year. I looked at mine and the other CT counties and nearby NY counties. They all show a distinct peak on March 13 and rapid decline since. March 13 was the last day of school for almost the entire state. The rate of decline increased more on March 19th, which is when the first of the more stringent isolation regulations went into effect here. Really could prove useful in determining the success of the isolation effort so we can turn the economy back on.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kinsas-fever-map-could-show-211625593.html
 
In Kansas, the schools are all closed for the rest of this school year.
 
What seems lacking to me is all I see are articles about who gets it and what other symptoms and conditions they have. What are the people with no symptoms or mild symptoms doing right? Does exercise help? Hours of sleep per night? Fruits and vegetables? Higher zinc or vitamin D levels? B12 levels? Are their any common links in the no to mild symptom people that other's could duplicate?

I've posted before about the Breseden protocol for Alzheimer's having published research in journals on having helped hundreds of patients reverse cognitive decline. Dr. Breseden has youtube videos on how patients come to him after being seen at leading Alzheimer's clinics and they doctors at the other clinics often don't ask basic question about their diet and lifestyle habits, hours of sleep per night, exercise habits, B12 levels - a bunch of pretty basic stuff.

It seems like ruling out the easy fixes first like not enough sleep or common vitamin or mineral deficiencies would be a lot more practical than trying to crank out millions upon millions of respirators and hospital beds.
 
What seems lacking to me is all I see are articles about who gets it and what other symptoms and conditions they have. ...It seems like ruling out the easy fixes first like not enough sleep or common vitamin or mineral deficiencies would be a lot more practical than trying to crank out millions upon millions of respirators and hospital beds.

Gonna guess the folks involved are doing both? The data/health/science guys working around the clock to parse data (and figure why US serious cases are skewing younger than other areas). We haven't seen articles because there's not enough consensus yet to publish findings - and doing so too soon would be irresponsible leading folks to be "oh I do that I'll be immune" when...nope.

Meanwhile, the factories are converting and making PPE and medical equipment - to the extent that they can and are able to.

No reason at all to think it's an either/or scenario, or that smarter people aren't dedicated to these multiple issues.
 
No reason at all to think it's an either/or scenario, or that smarter people aren't dedicated to these multiple issues.

As a fan of lifestyle medicine over conventional, personally I'd be pleasantly surprised if most of the Covid-19 researchers are looking at factors like nutritional or lifestyle factors, per the Alzheimer's example in my previous post. YMMV.
 
does that mean that we’re going to have the most cases? We are a large and populous country.

Oh, I see we are already #3! Wow!

I guess the 4+ million you mean worldwide?

No, just the USA. It seems crazy to me, but it looks like we will be past all other countries by Friday night. Unless of course our home isolation starts having a big effect.

I wish my stocks went up like this :(
 
As a fan of lifestyle medicine over conventional, personally I'd be pleasantly surprised if most of the Covid-19 researchers are looking at factors like nutritional or lifestyle factors...

I sincerely hope they are looking at ALL factors rather than most of them concentrating on what type of medicine you, I or any other individual happens to be a fan of. :facepalm:
 
I sincerely hope they are looking at ALL factors rather than most of them concentrating on what type of medicine you, I or any other individual happens to be a fan of. :facepalm:


The point of lifestyle medicine involves prevention, especially with diet and lifestyle changes, conventional medicine is more focused on treatment after the fact, especially pills and surgery. I'd be pleasantly surprised if the mainstream medical researchers are looking at the different diets and nutritional statuses of the severe vs. mild symptom patients. I hope they are looking at all factors, too, but based on the conventionally recommended treatments for other major diseases, that seems unlikely.
 
So today the president mentioned an exit strategy ""WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!". Andrew Cuomo (Governor of NY) stated: "I take total responsibility for shutting off the economy in terms of nonessential workers, but we also have to start to plan the pivot back to economic functionality. You can’t stop the economy forever,”

So this (well Trump's statement at least - the fact the Cuomo also stated something similar seems to be ignored) has started a "twitter storm" with the hash tag #NotDying4WallStreet.

Not wanting to debate politics here - or -who said what -- but I wonder if most of the people out there today realize/don't realize what will happen to them (not just Wall Street) if the economy is significantly shut down for a long period of time.
 
I hope they are looking at all factors, too, but based on the conventionally recommended treatments for other major diseases, that seems unlikely.

Really, nah. If you believe that the health pros looking into solving a global health pandemic are not looking at freaking every possibility of cause, for treatment, and for prevention, then your opinion of all these teams is far less than mine. I have zero doubt that there are smart doctors and researchers looking at everything. Of course, different groups are targeting their area of expertise, but I do not think there are stones being left un-turned. Not this time.
 
What seems lacking to me is all I see are articles about who gets it and what other symptoms and conditions they have. What are the people with no symptoms or mild symptoms doing right? Does exercise help? Hours of sleep per night? Fruits and vegetables? Higher zinc or vitamin D levels? B12 levels? Are their any common links in the no to mild symptom people that other's could duplicate?

It's called immunity. If you are immune, you won't get it. For those who get it but are asymptomatic, who knows? Most likely it is a genetic anomaly. Luck of the draw. It would be exceedingly rare to have some sort of 'lifestyle' choice cause one to develop immunity to viruses. That's not how viruses work.

I've posted before about the Breseden protocol for Alzheimer's having published research in journals on having helped hundreds of patients reverse cognitive decline. Dr. Breseden has youtube videos on how patients come to him after being seen at leading Alzheimer's clinics and they doctors at the other clinics often don't ask basic question about their diet and lifestyle habits, hours of sleep per night, exercise habits, B12 levels - a bunch of pretty basic stuff.

It seems like ruling out the easy fixes first like not enough sleep or common vitamin or mineral deficiencies would be a lot more practical than trying to crank out millions upon millions of respirators and hospital beds.

If it worked and was easier, it would be done. You think overcrowded hospitals are choosing the intensive ventilator path instead of just handing out vitamins because they like it? Same for Bredesen. If his plan worked, the Alzheimer's wards would be nearly empty. People don't generally avoid cures that actually work...
 
As a fan of lifestyle medicine over conventional, personally I'd be pleasantly surprised if most of the Covid-19 researchers are looking at factors like nutritional or lifestyle factors, per the Alzheimer's example in my previous post. YMMV.

Lifestyle medicine can bend the curve a bit, and advise who is more / less at risk. But it can't change the basic demographics of this. There are plenty of people who do everything right health wise, who get killed by this. Both young and old. Do they have better chances? Absolutely.

But lifestyle medicine is really about the long term, not a short term pandemic cure.
 
As we all debate all this this economy vs. saving lives and preventing illness, we need to keep one thing in mind.

Most will eventually get this virus. The only thing we need to do is ensure our ability to care for those who get it at any point in time is not exceeded by the number that have it at that point in time.

So besides economic quarantine we can bend the other curve more. The ability to prevent (masks and sanitizers), track (test kits easy and quick), and care (respirators); for everyone who wants / needs it.

Want to restart the economy? A manhattan project for production of these items will allow the population to return to work with the confidence that should they fall ill, they will know it and care will be available.

So while congress debates $2T in economic relief. Where is a simple $100B (guess) for this manhattan project?
 
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